Stadium and Main

Now that the dust has settled...

2009-01-10T14:00:00.004-05:00

The Bowl thing

So the Big Ten had the worst bowl season of any BCS team in the BCS era. I’m sure we won’t hear anything about that from the national media. I kid. But seriously, I am consistently amazed at how the media continually overlooks the strength of the Big Ten’s bowl schedule.

Yes, the Big Ten was down this year. But over the long haul, they really should be losing the majority of their bowl games given the circumstances/schedule. If there ever comes a time when the Big Ten is winning 75% of its bowl games over a 5 year period, then that means they’re dominating college football. The Big Ten consistently plays more of the best teams from the best BCS conferences (read: not the ACC or Big East) than any other conference, and plays many of them in de facto road games.

I have to laugh at some conferences’ bowl schedules. Lets see… the Big East’s 2nd place team (Pitt) got to play Oregon State. Our 2nd place team (Ohio State) got to play Texas. If you tell me those two games are equivalent, you’re insane. And it’s the same thing, year in and year out with the Big Ten – all the way down the schedule. But nobody ever takes the time to look at the schedules, they just see the wins and losses. Think about this: the Big Ten played USC, Georgia, and Missouri, all of which were TOP FIVE teams in many polls to start the season. And that doesn’t include Texas, which was Top 10 (and has a legitimate argument, like USC, that it deserves a share of the National Title). That’s nuts. I know that some of those teams didn’t live up to expectations, but they are all very good teams. Think about the experienced NFL-level talent on those 4 teams I just listed, especially at the skill postions – it’s impressive. No wonder the Big Ten lost those games.

The depth of the Big Ten’s bowl schedule is always crazy. This year, we had 7 bowl teams. We played 3 Big 12 teams (Texas, Mizzou, Kansas), 2 SEC teams (Georgia, South Carolina), 1 Pac-10 team (USC) and 1 ACC team (FSU). There are no patsies there; there are no Nevadas or Navys or Buffalos or Louisiana Techs. And some of those games were essentially on the road. I can’t understand how people continually overlook this. Yes I can, it’s because people are stupid.

TP

No, Terrelle Pryor is not very accurate, but he’s already pretty good. He’s going to be very good, primarily because of his athleticism. His effortless scrambling is Vince Young-esque. He’s going to drive the Big Ten crazy for at least 2 more years. One thing that bothers me, as a football “purist,” is how he often runs out of bounds without regard to the first down marker. If I remember correctly, he ran out of bounds 2 yards short of the first down on a 2nd and long play in the first half vs. Texas, when he seemingly could have maintained balance and reached the marker, or even dove for the first down. He did this a few other times when extra yards were there for the taking. That sort of nonchalant mentality isn’t necessarily frustrating because it seems like Pryor isn’t giving full effort; it’s mainly frustrating because it seems as if it doesn’t matter. As in, it doesn’t matter if he stops short on one play because he’s probably going to burn you on the next one. I might be giving the guy too much credit too soon, but he has that rare ability to gain 15 yards with his legs whenever he darn well pleases. Those who think he has no future as an accurate passer should compare his first-year stats to those of Vince Young and Troy Smith. Those guys stunk even worse, but improved. That’s not a guarantee of success, but it’s also not good sign for non-OSU fans.

A word on in-state recruiting

Bottom line: If Michigan State ends up with a class that the websites say is about 20th, on average, and Michigan ends up with a class that is about 10th, then MSU can “own” the state of Michigan in recruiting for all I care. Michigan is going to get most of the guys it wants in-state, and MSU can “lock down” the rest. When you’re MSU, you need those guys from Saginaw or Kalamazoo or wherever – guys who are solid Big Ten players but maybe not superstars. When you’re Michigan, and you are beating Florida and Miami for some of the best recruits in the Sunshine State, you can afford to be a bit more selective, and you can even afford to lose a few 4-star types to your in-state rival. Looking at it from another angle, if there ever comes a time when Michigan has more in-state players on its roster than MSU, we’re in trouble. The state produces decent talent, but in general, better talent can be had elsewhere. Michigan can usually get that talent, Michigan State usually can’t. So while the Detroit media buys into MSU’s spin that the Spartans signing more Michiganders is bad news for Michigan, here’s the deal: It really isn’t.

Other Things

- The college football off-season is the longest in recent memory this coming year, thanks to a calendar quirk. Whereas the season usually starts in late August or the first few days of September, we’ll have to wait until September 5, 2009 for the first full Saturday of games. Just a few extra days for the media to write glowing, factually-sound articles about Rich Rodriguez, right?

- Tulane is the real national champion.

- The Michigan Stadium Renovation site has a nifty map that allows you to view a few web cams monitoring the construction. Click on the red text on the map to see the progress. 3 of the 5 are pointed at the Stadium.

- I strongly urge you to attend the Spring Game at Michigan Stadium on Saturday, April 11th. Check out the construction progress, see new QB Tate Forcier and the other early enrollees, and support the team. Go Blue!

Enough Already

2008-10-16T20:12:00.002-04:00

I haven’t posted much this season, which is probably a good thing. But after reading and hearing some of the things that were said after the Toledo loss, I had to chime in with my two cents: Everybody chill out.

If you’re nervous about the Rodriguez regime, frustrated by our lackluster performance thus far, or simply mad that we lost to a MAC team, please take some time to read this. Then bookmark it and re-read it after our next loss. Then go outside and enjoy some nice fall weather.

Relax. We are going to be fine.

The Bowl Streak

Michigan’s nation-leading consecutive bowl game streak will likely end this season, and that stinks. But it isn’t the worst thing in the world. Let me list some teams that recently missed bowl games, and the years they have missed them (since 1990):

USC – 2000, 1999, 1997, 1996, and 1991
Ohio State – 1999
Oklahoma – 1998, 1997, 1996, and 1995
Georgia – 1996, 1994, 1993, and 1990
Alabama – 2003, 2002, 2000, 1997, and 1995
LSU – 1999, 1998, 1994, 1993, 1992, 1991, and 1990
Texas – 1997, 1993, 1992, and 1991
Penn State – 2004, 2003, 2001, and 2000

A few obvious observations:

(a) The most dominant program in college football this decade, USC, missed a bowl game in 2000 and missed four in the 1990s.
(b) Penn State, currently ranked 3rd in the country, has missed four bowl games since 2000. They’re probably the most Jekyll/Hyde college team this decade, but their program didn’t dissolve just because they stunk for a few years and they have a decent shot at the BCS Championship Game this season. And in case you forgot: during one of those down years, PSU lost to… Toledo. At home.
(c) LSU missed seven bowl games in the 1990s but has won 2 BCS National Championships since. They essentially stunk for a decade, but do you think that’s bothering them now?
(d) Georgia’s crappy run in the mid-90s didn’t hurt them in the late-90s and early-00s, when they recruited what would be the foundation of a Sugar Bowl and SEC Championship team (2002).

On a related note: Isn’t it clear what happened with a majority of these programs? Most of them underachieved for a few years, hired a good coach, and rose back to their rightful place amongst college football’s elite. USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, and LSU – these are teams that didn’t do much in the 1990s (or even the 1980s, with the exception of the Sooners), yet they’re arguably the five most dominant programs of this decade. Each has at least one national championship to its name since 2000. I’m not saying that Michigan is guaranteed a place amongst this “current elite” in the coming years – I’m saying that the path we’re following has resulted in abundant success for a few of our traditional peers, and there’s no reason why Michigan can’t achieve the same results.

Every single college football power has suffered through a tough time. We are the most consistent and most successful program to do so, and we’re the last of the bunch. So maybe that’s why it stings so much. But I’m confident that Michigan will be back on top sooner rather than later, because I think Rich Rodriguez is a great coach and I know he’s a relentless recruiter. If you think he stinks and you don’t like him for one reason or another, then fine, keep tearing your hair out about the bowl streak, the loss to a MAC team, and all of these other fairly meaningless statistics (or “traditions”) that you think are so important. In the grand scheme of things, I assure you they aren’t. Alabama fans aren’t pining over that missed bowl game in 2003, and Alabama recruits probably don’t even know it happened. They’re all too busy smiling about the fact that they're program is ready to blow up (in a good way).

First Year at a New School: Who Am I?

Let’s play a game! Some names and numbers to ponder:

- I went 6-6 in my first year, including a loss to Utah. I was ridiculed as a poor hire. Here’s what they said about me at first: "After setting out to hire a proven winner but being turned down or ignored by high-profile candidates, [Team X] finally settled on [Coach Y] as its new football coach … despite strong objections from boosters, alumni and fans." Here’s what happened shortly thereafter: I went 2-5 in my first 7 games (ouch!), then 67-7 over my next 74 (whoa!), winning two national titles and bringing my team back to prominence. Who am I? I am Pete Carroll, head coach of the USC Trojans.

- I went 2-9 and 2-10 in my first two seasons, trying to adapt a traditional pro-style offense to a spread that incorporates Rich Rodriguez’s zone read scheme. Contrary to popular belief, my current quarterback was not a dual-threat QB in high school, but he is very athletic. He struggled mightily his freshman year, somehow “managing” to complete less than 40%(!) of his passes. In my third season, we beat Ohio State and went to the Rose Bowl. Now my experienced QB understands the offense and is racking up 300 yards a game like it’s no big deal, including passing for more than 450 yards twice this season (already). My team is currently 10th in the nation in total offense. My offense stunk at first, but now it gives my team a chance to win every game. Who am I? I am Ron Zook, head coach of the Illinois Fighting Illini.

- I went 5-6 in my first year at one of the biggest powers in college football history. In my second year, I went 8-4, and in my third I won a national championship. In the 10 seasons following my sub-par first year, I went 95-24-2. Who am I? I am Lou Holtz, former Notre Dame head coach.

- I went 1-11 in my first year, trying to convert a zone power running game into a spread offense. I even lost to Florida Atlantic and North Dakota State, but I stayed the course and recruited players to fit my system. I kept teaching the system to my fairly young team, and it paid off. This season, my second, I’m 6-1 and my team is going to a bowl game. Who am I? I am Tim Brewster, head coach of the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

- I went 7-6 in my first year and lost to Louisana-Monroe (at home, obvs). My team is currently ranked 2nd in the country. Rita Rodriguez knows who I am. Do you? I am Nick Saban, head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide

- I went 3-8 in my first year, struggling to install the spread offense. I managed 9 wins in year 2, which started a run of six straight bowl games, including two BCS bowl wins. Nobody knew anything about me early on in this decade, but I dominated the Big East and now everybody seems to be copying my offense. Rita Rodriguez also knows who I am. I am Rich Rodriguez, former head coach of the West Virginia Mountaineers and current head coach of the Michigan Wolverines.

Do I really need to hammer home the points here? I don’t think so. Some might argue that while the coaches of the “traditional power” teams listed above (Carroll, Holtz, and Saban) didn’t have much success their first year, (a) none of them looked as bad as Michigan’s team does now, and (b) many of them (not to mention coaches like Stoops and Tressel, who weren’t part of the crew above) made HUGE improvements in their second years. These folks would say, and rightfully so, that such an improvement seems unlikely at Michigan in 2009. But there is a big difference between those coaches' situations and Rich Rodriguez’s. Carroll inherited Heisman-type talent at USC and let Norm Chow put the finishing touches on an experienced Carson Palmer. Tressel inherited great linemen and a roster designed to execute his philosophy. Stoops had an efficient JUCO QB (Josh Heupel) who was perfect for his system (and a Heisman runner-up). And so on. Rodriguez has virtually nothing, especially on offense. So let’s talk about that…

Why Does the Offense Stink?

You probably already know this stuff, but please forward this along to Outraged 52-Year-Old Guy in Section 20 (or 3, or 39, or wherever), because he apparently can’t understand why we’re not undefeated. After all, we’re Michigan! Right?! Anyway, on to why the offense is horrible:

Lack of experience

As mentioned multiple times by many others, we have one senior on the entire three-deep (TE Mike Massey). We lost more offensive talent than anybody in the country. Take a look at the list:

QB Chad Henne
QB Ryan Mallett
OL Jake Long
OL Justin Boren
OL Alex Mitchell
OL Adam Kraus
WR Mario Manningham
WR Adrian Arrington
RB Mike Hart

That’s a lot of talent. Other players can and will replace them, but not yet. Not when they’re currently freshmen and sophomores in a new offensive system.

Lack of dual-threat QB (or even a semi-productive QB)

News flash: There was a reason that the first person Rich Rodriguez called after accepting the Michigan job was Terrelle Pryor. Actually, there were 4 reasons: (1) Ryan Mallett, (2) Steven Threet, (3) Nick Sheridan, and (4) David Cone. Rodriguez knew that he had nobody on the Michigan roster that could run the spread offense. [And if you fault Rich for not “adapting his offense to his talent,” please see the “Some Words from the Wise” section below] Yes, Mallett had a strong arm – but how quickly people forget his fumble and attitude problems. Yes, Threet was an Elite 11 QB – but he’s only a redshirt freshman playing in a brand new system, and maybe he (like Mallett) was a bit overrated in high school? Rounding out the QB group were a walk-on who’s probably on the team only because his dad used to coach here (Sheridan) and a lanky, immobile passer (Cone).

Rodriguez knew he needed help… immediately. With only about 6 weeks left before Signing Day, he did the best he could. QB recruit B.J. Daniels, who ended up at South Florida, was apparently headed to Michigan when it became clear that something fishy was going on with his recruitment (and since USF coach is such a jerk, I’ll state the obvious: various folks claimed that he wanted to get P.A.I.D.). So when Rodriguez had to drop Daniels and was unable to lure another QB (such as Alabama commit Star Jackson or Minnesota commit MarQueis Gray) at the 11th hour, Justin Feagin was the only one Michigan was able to snag. And here’s a telling quote from Feagin’s Scout.com profile: “[Feagin] starts at quarterback and safety but projects as a safety in college.” So that’s where we stand. Unfortunately for Rich, and for Michigan fans, help won’t be arriving until 2009. But to hold the poor QB play against Rodriguez this season is ridiculous. We just don’t have a productive QB on our roster right now, let alone a productive spread-option QB.

Lack of quality OL

Brian’s got this one.

Injuries, Suspensions, and other Junk

Nobody likes these types of excuses, but this season they’re quite valid. Each of these offensive players has missed at least one game:

OL Cory Zirbel (most experienced OL, out for the season before a game was played)
OL Perry Dorrestein (current starter)
OL Mark Ortmann (current starter)
RB Brandon Minor (projected starter, key backup)
RB Carlos Brown (key backup)
RB Kevin Grady (1-game suspension, key backup)
WR Greg Mathews (current starter)
WR Daryl Stonum (1-game suspension, current starter)
WR Junior Hemingway (one-time starter, currently out with Mono)
Slot WR Terrence Robinson (projected contributor, hasn’t played in a game due to injury)
Slot WR Martavious Odoms (current starter, sorely missed in the Toledo loss)

Also recall that TE Carson Butler (general boneheadedness) and QB Steven Threet (Entire 2nd Half vs. Toledo, part of 2nd Half at Notre Dame) have missed various parts of games this year. We’ve been flat-out unlucky: We have virtually no experience on offense, and some key players that we can’t do without have already missed a significant amount of time.

Some Words from the Wise

Brian gets it right:

No, this offense would not be any better if it was lining up under center every play and running isos. Banish this from your mind. When you have freshmen at quarterback and most of the skill positions and a line with something like 6 even quasi-reasonable options and the lone senior on the two-deep is the third-string tight end, you are going to be awful no matter what offensive philosophy you adopt. There are like two and a half good players on offense.

And what would that buy Michigan? A Motor City Bowl invite? I'd like to keep the bowl streak—not going to happen—but if the choice is between a crappy December bowl and some increased chance Michigan is great in 2010, I'll take the latter.

Jake gets it right:

Informed football fans understand why Michigan is struggling. You cannot have success running the spread if you have a QB who can’t run or throw. Truth be told, you can’t have success running any offense with a QB like that but it is especially true with the spread. Michigan is bad for one reason and that’s because of the QB play. If RR had merely an average spread QB, or even just an accurate passer, Michigan would likely be 4-2. Instead, Michigan is 2-4 and looks even worse than that. There are many things this team could improve on but there is only one thing making this team bad. I’ll once again cite my favorite example when discussing Michigan and the spread: Georgia Tech. Paul Johnson literally hit the ground running at Georgia Tech with his triple option attack. With far less talent than Michigan, he had the Yellow Jackets wreckin’ house at a rate of 412 total yards per game. Why? Because he inherited two above average dual-threat QBs. That’s it. That’s the difference. Michigan is a disaster because of one position. Need evidence? Both of Georgia Tech’s QB’s were out this past weekend against Gardner-Webb. Gardner-Webb is a I-AA team and a mediocre I-AA team at that. Without its two dual-threat QBs—and with a Threet-esque QB—Georgia Tech won 10-7 and put up 199 total yards. Sound familiar? Michigan isn’t perfect, but it is literally one position away from being a 10-win bowl team. Don’t forget that when you’re making your “Fire RR” signs.

And he doesn’t stop there:

Remember when Bill Martin hired RR? There was a huge group of fans who were still complaining about not getting Les Miles. I believe those are the people who are already giving up on Rodriguez. Only an ignorant fan would already give up on Rodriguez six games into his career. I think the people who supported RR from the beginning are still behind him. It’s just too bad that we can’t expel moronic fans who are jumping ship six games into RR’s career. They will come back and cheer just like the rest of us with no consequences. There was an idiot who called into Sam Webb’s show on Monday morning who said, “If Michigan would’ve hired Brady Hoke, we’d be undefeated.” There wasn’t a person in the universe who wanted Michigan to hire Brady Hoke (Hoke relatives not included). In fact, Hoke represented the worst possible scenario. People were having nightmares about the possibility of Hoke running the program. I can’t believe there is a guy out there, living and breathing, who could actually bring himself to mutter the sentence, “Martin blew it by not hiring Brady Hoke.”

Finally, Stewart Mandel gets it right:

Stewart, as an extremely concerned Michigan fan I have one simple question: Rich Rodriquez = Bill Callahan?
-- Jamie DeFrank, Washington D.C.

Wow -- you're really going there already? I figured Michigan fans would be panicking this week, but Callahan was arguably the most disastrous coaching hire this decade. You don't happen to be the kind of person who runs to the doctor's office at the first sight of a pimple?

I'm guessing you're making the parallel because Callahan, like Rodriguez, tried to overhaul a previously successful program's offensive system. And, like Callahan, he's an outsider. But at the end of the day, Callahan didn't fail at Nebraska because of his offense. On the contrary, the Huskers were quite powerful offensively by the end of his tenure. He failed because he was an NFL-bred coach trying to run a college program like an NFL franchise and, in the process, he managed to alienate almost everyone connected to that program.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, is a proven college coach. If you haven't noticed, West Virginia hasn't been the same without him. Tommy Bowden just resigned in part because he could never replicate the success he had with Rodriguez as his offensive coordinator. The guy knows what he's doing; unfortunately, his players can't yet say the same.

In Closing

Allow me to repeat what I said a few weeks ago, because it applied then, it applies now, and it will apply 6 months from now (so re-read it, if and when necessary):

What’s very frustrating for me is that Charlie Weis went 3-9 in his third year, and there was virtually no talk of firing him. But I guarantee you that if Rodriguez misses a bowl game this season, his first year, you will hear a LOT more talk about how he’s not the right guy for the job, etc. Never mind the fact that we don’t have a proper QB for his system yet – the most important part of Michigan’s team from here on out. Additionally, Rodriguez is working with about 5 of “his own” recruits. In his 3rd year, Weis was working with, what, 50(?) of his own recruits (two full recruiting classes, plus a few guys he pulled in after Willingham was fired). Pretty much all of his offensive players in year 3 fit his offensive system (pro style). And if you want to say that Weis struggled because his 3rd-year team was loaded with inexperienced players... umm, have you looked at Michigan’s roster lately? The entire THREE-deep on offense has just one senior (TE Mike Massey), and we’re starting freshmen at QB, RB, OL, and WR!

I’m already annoyed at the media because I can see this coming from a mile away. Rich Rodriguez is a very good coach. We need to give him time, and we need to stop any crap from the media before it starts.

But “we” didn’t preemptively stop the crap from the media, did we? No, “we” embraced it. And by “we” I’m talking about Outraged 52-Year-Old Guy in Section 20, who I mentioned earlier. I swear, Michigan must have the most self-abusive fan base in the country. Show that guy a hint of negativity, a bit of adversity, or an “unacceptable” result, and he’ll run with it until he’s blue in the face and our coach is showing up on “hot seat” lists across the internet.

So here’s my humble plea to those folks: Stop complaining. Stop booing. Stop playing the “what if” game. Stop using the word “fire” (unless you’re talking about the element). Michigan is young, inexperienced, and lacking talent at many key positions. But we are going to be very good in a few years. In the meantime, for the sake of the rest of us and for the betterment of Michigan football, please deal with yourselves. Go Blue!

Back from the Bye Week Break

2008-09-25T21:20:00.002-04:00

They have a team of monkeys working around the clock on this stuff

Want another example of the U of M “marketing” team doing a great job? How about the commemorative t-shirt for this weekend’s game against Wisconsin – the 500th in Michigan Stadium history. The game is a Maize Out, and the t-shirt is white. Way to go!

Weis Year 3 vs. Rodriguez Year 1

This has nothing to do with the ND game, but it’s somewhat related. What’s very frustrating for me is that Charlie Weis went 3-9 in his third year, and there was virtually no talk of firing him. But I guarantee you that if Rodriguez misses a bowl game this season, his first year, you will hear a LOT more talk about how he’s not the right guy for the job, etc. Never mind the fact that we don’t have a proper QB for his system yet – the most important part of Michigan’s team from here on out. Additionally, Rodriguez is working with about 5 of “his own” recruits. In his 3rd year, Weis was working with, what, 50(?) of his own recruits (two full recruiting classes, plus a few guys he pulled in after Willingham was fired). Pretty much all of his offensive players in year 3 fit his offensive system (pro style). And if you want to say that Weis struggled because his 3rd-year team was loaded with inexperienced players... umm, have you looked at Michigan’s roster lately? The entire THREE-deep on offense has just one senior (TE Mike Massey), and we’re starting freshmen at QB, RB, OL, and WR!

I’m already annoyed at the media because I can see this coming from a mile away. Rich Rodriguez is a very good coach. We need to give him time, and we need to stop any crap from the media before it starts.

Know the Horse-Collar Rule: Some Horse-Collar Tackles are OK (seriously)

I looked this up because the “horse-collar” penalty that Michigan was called for on one of ND’s interception returns was a horrible call. And, yes, it was called (although NBC didn’t mention it very clearly and the replay was shown while the ref was making the call). The Michigan player (David Molk, I believe) grabbed the ND player’s collar area and pulled down/back for a split second, but the ND player remained on his feet and his momentum carried him forward. He lost his balance after the Michigan player had released him, and eventually fell down to his right without being touched at the time. Does that sound like it fits within the description of the penalty (Rule 9-1-2-p)?:

“All players are prohibited from grabbing the inside back collar of the shoulder pads or jersey, or the inside collar of the side of the shoulder pads or jersey, and immediately pulling the runner down. This does not apply to a runner who is inside the tackle box or to a quarterback who is in the pocket.” (emphasis mine)

There are two things to note here: (1) “Immediately pulling the runner down” definitely didn’t happen in the Michigan-ND game. Under any definition of the word, that wasn’t an “immediate” tackle by the Michigan player. And, for future reference, (2) The horse-collar tackle prohibition “does not apply to a runner who is inside the tackle box or to a quarterback who is in the pocket.” There is going to be a lot of confusion on this rule (there already is), because a QB will get sacked via a horse-collar tackle and either (a) the refs will call it a penalty, which it shouldn’t be, or (b) fans will riot because the penalty wasn’t called. Additionally, I think Michigan fans need to know this rule because I bet we’ll see a lot of horse-collar tackles within the tackle box in the future. McGuffie will take a handoff on a zone stretch play and get pulled down from behind by a crashing DE. Fans will want a penalty, but if he’s within the tackle box there shouldn’t be one.

Also note a further clarification by the NCAA that will probably be incorrectly called in the coming years: "If the ball carrier is grabbed by the shoulder or jersey and just ridden to the ground over a couple of yards, that's not going to be a foul." This jibes with the “immediate” standard that is listed in the rule, but I just see too much room for differing interpretations of this rule. Another annoying thing from that article: "We'll err on the side of safety. We'll defend the official who may be a little more strict, because that's a major point of emphasis." The whole “point of emphasis” thing is illogical on its face. So some rules are more important than others? The NCAA is starting to sound like the Notre Dame announcers on NBC, who stated that intentional grounding didn’t need to be called on Jimmy Clausen because he threw the ball “near” the line of scrimmage (the rule, as you know, is that the ball must at least reach the line of scrimmage). Every rule is important and every rule should be applied uniformly.

Looking at Wisconsin

The Badgers have a handful of nagging injuries, it seems. RB P.J. Hill has a leg bruise. TE Travis Beckum had a hamstring issue for the first few weeks of the season – those can linger. WLB Jonathan Casillas had a knee injury but played in Wisconsin’s last game (at Fresno State). CB Aaron Henry is recovering from a knee injury and might make the decision to play or redshirt this Saturday. Is it evil of me to hope that all of these guys play a lot but are very limited in their production/mobility? Maybe they’ll “tough it out” because it’s Michigan and they haven’t won in the Big House during their careers, but in doing so they might take valuable snaps away from healthy, productive players (like TE Garrett Graham, who has been Wisconsin’s leading receiving threat).

Here's a good take, from mgoblog’s diaries, on what to expect and what we need to do to win. Enjoy the game, and Go Blue!

If we lose, blame Adidas

2008-09-12T14:09:00.001-04:00

And I’m not just talking about the inevitable complaints that will result from seeing our new road uniforms in action for the first time, I’m talking about the frustration that will result from seeing out team slipping and sliding all over the place. It’s going to be wet and a bit windy, and the grass will probably be longer than we’d prefer. Be prepared to flashbacks of the 2006 game at OSU, where our DL couldn’t seem to stay upright thanks to the slippery surface. I fully expect to hear horror stories about how Adidas only brought one set of cleats for Michigan. And then the conspiracy theories (which I will totally partake in) about how Adidas prefers Notre Dame to Michigan because ND has that one Adidas deodorant ad in all the sports magazines.

On a more serious note, here are some random things I expect to see in the ND game:

- A deep play-action pass out of the I-formation on 3rd and short. Kevin Grady will be in the game, and most will expect him to get the ball. He won’t. Whether it works or not is another story.

- Lots of dink and dunk passes from ND, including a variety of screens to RBs, WRs, and TEs. This has been discussed all week, since most people believe the Irish will attempt to neutralize Michigan’s DL with quick passes.

- A fluky special teams play. Most likely: the wet football is going to get dropped by a punter. And I think Michigan tries for at least one punt block (which shouldn’t really merit a mention, but it’s been so rare for Michigan to do so against ND that it will be nice to see them try it).

- More of Carlos Brown at QB than we’ve ever seen. He will get a handful of snaps, and he might even play QB on consecutive plays. And for the first time in my life, I think there’s a (small) chance that he’ll actually attempt a pass. I’d also expect a designed run to the strong side of the field which turns into a reverse when Brown hands off to Martavious Odoms.

Looking back at Miami (OH)

- As I was hoping, the blocking out in the flats improved, but there were still several missed blocks.

- 2 weeks in a row of terrible (as in, way worse than usual “bad”) announcers. They harped on Miami’s missed opportunities, but never mentioned Michigan’s: 2 or 3 dropped INTs, 2 or 3 missed wide open receivers – a few of those might have gone for TDs. I won’t even get into the stupid “the state of Michigan is crap” segment. Unbelievable.

- The defense wasn’t great, but I’m surprised at how many people were ripping it in the immediate aftermath of the game. After re-watching, and realizing that we held them to 6 points, I think people realized that we did a decent job. But, yes, Stevie Brown still has issues.

- For all of the talk about Sheridan being the better runner, Threet is the guy who appears to have made more correct reads on the zone-read handoffs this season. He made 2 very good reads vs. Miami, one resulting in the first TD. On a related note, I just feel more comfortable with Threet in there. For now.

Post-Utah thoughts

2008-09-05T13:05:00.001-04:00

Had to digest the game a bit longer than most, obviously. And it never helps that September is the busiest month at work. Great timing, huh?

Bullets:

- It’s a bit disappointing to see how many people are ready to write this team and its coaching staff off. It was one game! Yes, there are various areas of concern, but some people need to get a grip. I always disagreed with the people who claimed that Michigan fans just liked to complain about anything, but after some of the things I’ve seen and read this week… maybe they’re on to something. This season will be tough, but Utah is a good team. What you saw was a good spread team with a veteran spread QB vs. a bad spread team with inexperienced “spread QBs” (and I obviously use that term loosely for Sheridan and Threet). We will get better over time, and we will get much better once we have a true spread QB. As much as it stinks to say it, Terrelle Pryor really set our program back a year or two by choosing to attend Ohio State.

- On the last play of the game, Threet threw high and incomplete to Stonum. Watching the replay, Minor appears to be open on a seam route down the middle. It would have been a 40-yard throw, but it also might have been a TD. I can’t knock Threet too much for not seeing it, since it clearly wasn’t his first read. But I’m hoping we see more of these seam routes from Minor, Shaw, Butler and the like. Utah certainly killed us (mainly in the first half) by lining up WRs and TEs against our LBs. If teams are willing to play us like that, we have to make them pay.

- That incomplete pass from Sheridan to Minor near the end of the first half was a heart-breaker. Same seam route (on the left side that time), same wide open receiver, but Sheridan couldn’t connect. I also had flashbacks to some of the practice video I’ve seen over the summer, and I distinctly recall Rich Rod yelling something like, “Brandon, don’t stab at it.” While this was off-camera, I’m pretty sure he was talking about putting one hand up to catch a pass when you really need two (or when you should be diving for the ball). And he might have been talking to Brandon Moore for all I know. Anyway, I understand that Sheridan threw a fairly bad pass there, but the old coaching axiom that “if you can get a hand on it, you should catch it” comes to mind. I can’t really fault Minor, since he’s not a WR by any means, but I wonder if his eyes got big when he saw all that open field. Maybe a leap and a two-handed grab for a mere first down would have been the better option? Would that have even been possible, considering how quickly the play developed? Just thinking out loud…

- Mesko was very lucky not to get his 4th quarter roll-out punt blocked. It seems he was told to look for open field and run for the first down, if possible. But there was a Utah player right there when he finally punted – I’m amazed he missed that punt block.

- Did Tony Gibson have some chewing tobacco in his mouth? They showed him on the sidelines on TV at least twice, and both times it looked like he did. If so, gross.

- The 4th quarter was really loud. Good job by the fans who were still there – quite a few had left. Probably the loudest I’ve ever heard it (although I’ve missed a few “loud” games like MSU 2004).

- Yes, the first half defense pretty much stunk. Marell Evans wasn’t that good, although I must admit watching from the stadium he looked like he was fast and active. Re-watching, he was clearly fast and unproductive. I think the coaches love his speed and athleticism – he’s just not ready yet. The second half performance was very good. I don’t buy the “Utah shut things down” argument. They might have been a little conservative in the 3rd quarter, but it wasn’t Lloydball by any means. Our DL was getting good pressure and the secondary was staying true to their assignments just long enough – something that couldn’t be said in the first half (Stevie Brown again taking a bad angle, Charles Stewart settling into weird/deep zones). The result was a lot of sacks, hurries, penalties, and a fumble recovery. The defense also looked fresh, so maybe all of that off-season conditioning is going to pay off. As many predicted, the LBs will be key. Jonas Mouton replacing Evans helped a bit, and John Thompson replacing Austin Panter in certain situations might make things better.

- I think we beat Miami (OH), 28-17, or something like that. I would love to see us block some of those screens a bit better. I won’t even ask the OL to block better, since that’s a work in progress and a much bigger problem. But Mike Massey, the WRs, and the RBs need to make their blocks if we’re going to have guys like Martavious Odoms do any damage in the flat. I think we break one or two of those this weekend, and that will end up being the difference.

Random Stuff. You Know the Drill...

2008-08-27T21:08:00.002-04:00

Is Utah the most important game of the season?

With mere hours to go before the season starts, all of the season previews and predictions are popping up. I'll leave that stuff to the big boys - I just haven't had time for it this year (I apologize to my few (loyal!) readers). But I wanted to bring up a topic that has been popular on the message boards in the past few days. What is the most "important" game of the year?

Many fans feel that Utah is the most important game this season. I disagree. But I guess that depends on how you define “important” – something I’m not going to get into, because there are so many different takes. So the following few paragraphs don’t really have a point – I just wanted to discuss this (with myself).

A loss to Utah will be bad any way you slice it. The words "Appalachian State" will be uttered a few thousand more times. The complaints about Rodriguez's coaching ability will start, after enduring 8 months of ridiculous attacks on his character. The fear of losing the nation's longest bowl appearance streak will be the subject on talk radio. It won't be fun. And maybe that’s what Michigan fans are fearing: that the fun and excitement surrounding our new regime will be squashed (or at least tempered) immediately. They envision a loss to Utah that could precede a 1-4 start (with additional losses to Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Illinois), making us look like the 2008 version of ND’s 2007 team. And that is definitely possible. We might end up turning the season around during the more manageable second half of the schedule, but a bad start isn’t unfathomable.

My take is that loss to Utah will stink, but it won't be the end of the world. How quickly people forget that we lost to Appalachian State last year, got destroyed by Oregon, but finished 2nd in the Big Ten and ended the season with a victory over media darling and defending national champion Florida. The program didn't dissolve, the season was played out, and we acquitted ourselves fairly well (all things considered). Considering this is our first game under a new staff implementing a new offensive system, I think it’s fair to think that we’ll improve a bit after Game 1.

Also, if we didn't open the season with Utah, would people be discussing this game as much? If we played Toledo on August 30th, and Utah on October 11th, would it be getting as much play? I highly doubt it. Yes, the game is more “important” because it is the season opener, and the way you start can set the tone for the entire season. But if we can finish the season with 8 wins, I don’t people will care too much if Utah was or wasn’t one of them. I don’t think you can say the same about a handful of other games on the schedule, and that’s why Utah isn’t as important to me.

Another way of looking at it: If we beat Utah, but lose to Ohio State, people won't be giving us much credit for that August 30th win. But if we lose to Utah and beat Ohio State, that victory will be the talk of the off-season. You can see the headlines now, can’t you?: "Rich Rod Reignites Michigan-Ohio State Rivalry". So I say Ohio State is the most important game, like most every season, even though we don’t have a good chance of winning. Michigan State and Notre Dame are also very important, for rivalry and recruiting purposes.

Don’t get me wrong – Utah is a very important game. But it seems clear to me that as the season progresses, whether we won or lost the Utah game will become less and less important.

3 tips to live by

Maize and Blue Nation and Varsity Blue have some fan “guidelines” that are worth checking out. I figured I’d add my take on what I feel are the 3 most important things:

1 - Make noise. Serious noise. The “key play” stuff with the jangling keys is so weak. Think about it this way: If you’re walking in a parking lot and you want to get the attention of someone 50 yards in front of you, what do you do? Jangle your keys at them? Clap at them? No, you YELL at them, because that’s the loudest sound you can make. Your voice is your loudest “noisemaker,” for lack of a better term. When Michigan is on defense, scream your lungs out. If your voice isn’t hoarse on Sunday, you haven’t done your part. It’s that simple.

2 - Wear maize. As Varsity Blue put it, “A maize shirt costs you a maximum of 16 dollars (and even that's only if you get the official T-shirt). Wear it.” Yep. It creates a better atmosphere and looks very impressive on TV and to recruits in the stadium. I can never understand all of those 275 pound dudes who rock their #18 Amani Toomer jerseys from Coolio’s “1, 2, 3, 4 (Sumpin’ New)” video. Those things are just guaranteed heat, sweat, and stank. Wear a maize t-shirt. It’s made of cotton, it reflects the sun (blue attracts it), and it’s 100 times cooler (in both senses of the word).

3 - Enough with the “down in front” stuff. If people stand up in front of you, you can choose to stand up or stay seated. Either way, don’t whine about it. If you want to enjoy the game in comfort with a great view, guess what?... it’s available in beautiful high definition in the comfort of your living room! You’re not at a movie, you’re at a football game. People are going to get involved in the action, and standing up is a perfectly acceptable way of doing so. Yes, once in a while some idiot will stand up for no apparent reason. He’s probably drunk, and he’s the exception to the rule. But in general, Michigan fans are very knowledgeable, and if they stand up it’s for a reason.

And so it begins

I’ve seen some posts this week asking “when was the last time you were this excited for a season to start?” Sadly, most fans (if they’re responding truthfully) would have to say “last season – 2007.” Ouch. But I don’t think the fans asking this question are only inquiring about this season and its results, but rather the new era of Michigan football. Jake was right when he said: “Some have compared it to an upgrade. I compare it to a transplant. The body is the same but the substance is entirely new.” In my opinion, any fan who isn’t looking forward to this season (because we probably won’t be that good, or for any other reason) is insane. Would you rather go back to the days of dreading that first loss? Fearing those road trips out West? Knowing that we were “saving things” for Notre Dame? Sitting through an uninspired, lackluster effort against a team we were favored to beat by 28 points? Those are things that we dealt with far too often over the past decade. Lloyd Carr is a great man and he was a good coach. But we needed a change. We needed a transplant. And, yes, I understand that there will likely be a variety of things that I will dislike about Rich Rodriguez and his coaching staff sooner or later. But for now, I am downright giddy that I have no idea what to expect. That I’ll see a bunch of weird formations and random plays I never thought I’d see in Michigan Stadium. That no matter what happens this weekend, or this season, the future is bright.

The long-term prognosis for the Michigan football program is better than it has been in recent memory – arguably in my entire life. We have one of the best coaches in college football, unbelievable facilities upgrades in the works, and we’re getting amazing exposure thanks to the openness of the new coaching staff. If you can’t get excited about that, it’s time to find a new team. Or, rather, another sport. Because in college football, it doesn’t get any better than Michigan. Go Blue!

Comcast/BTN (the last word?) and Jersey Numbers

2008-08-15T12:02:00.004-04:00

My last Comcast/BTN post... ever?!

I saw these two articles regarding all overflow BTN games being available in Philly and various parts of Pennsylvania. These were the first “official” overflow channel assignments that I had seen, and they were being distributed by an East Coast Comcast Rep named Jeff Alexander. I figured that gave me an excuse to email my Comcast contact and see if the overflow channels had been assigned in DC yet. Here’s what she said (important stuff in bold):

“Jeff Alexander is actually on my team and, yes, I can now confirm that the DC-area will use the same channels for "overflow" games - channels 801 through 804. [These channels will] only be “active” when they are in use for these “overflow” games, which is why you wouldn’t see them [on your Comcast TV Guide] yet. Unlike [the primary BTN channel], which will be 24/7, these channels will only be in use when there are actual overflow games, which is why you wouldn’t see anything yet. We are feeding information to the Guides as we have it, but given BTN schedules, potential changes, etc., I’d suggest you scan the channels on game day based on BTN air times and schedules.

Regarding BTN HD, we have no immediate plans to launch [in DC], but I can assure you we are always looking at new networks to add - especially in HD.

By the way, beginning on or about 8/28, you should also have access to some nice Video On Demand content BTN will be supplying, so be on the lookout on your VOD menu.”

Thanks to anybody in and around DC who called Comcast regarding the Big Ten Network. I'm glad they actually listened to us. Whether the same setup will occur in other locations probably depends on demand and (more importantly) free system space. The DC crew lucked out because Comcast has a decent amount of space available here. We'll see what happens in NYC, South Florida, California and other areas with plenty of alumni but (likely) more system space constraints.

This is odd

In a year in which most people are predicting a single-digit win total for Michigan, maybe it’s appropriate that we’ll have more “important” players with single-digit jersey numbers than… ever?

2 – RB Sam McGuffie (Fr.)
3 – QB Justin Feagin (Fr.)
3 – S Stevie Brown (Jr.)
4 – RB Brandon Minor (Jr.)
4 – LB Marcus Witherspoon (Fr.)
5 – TE Carson Butler (R. Jr.)
5 – S Charles Stewart (5th Sr.)
6 – CB Donovan Warren (So.)
7 – WR Terrance Robinson (Fr.)
8 – LB Jonas Mouton (R. So.)
8 – QB Nick Sheridan (R. So.)
9 – LB Marell Evans (So.)
9 – WR Martavious Odoms (Fr.)

All that without a #1, either. Of the players listed above, only Witherspoon is almost certain to redshirt this season (due to an academic snafu). The rest should play, and it is possible that Brown, Minor, Butler, Stewart, Warren, Sheridan, Evans, and one of Robinson/Odoms are all opening-game starters. McGuffie, Feagin, and Mouton will definitely see the field, and even if Odoms edges out Robinson for more snaps at the Slot-WR position (which seems to be the word on the street this week), both players will likely get a shot at punt and/or kick returns. That’s a lot of action from the single-digit guys. And since some people are complaining that the numbers on the new adidas jerseys are too small, it might be wise to familiarize yourself with the numerical roster so you can know who’s who. Note: Two players with the same jersey number can’t be on the field at the same time.

Update: Comcast and BTN Outside the Midwest

2008-08-01T13:12:00.003-04:00

If true, this would be awesome (for people in DC, mind you). Yesterday I received an email from a higher-up PR person from Comcast’s East Coast regional office. This is a different person than the one who contacted me before, for what it’s worth:

“[Nick] - I wanted to share some good news, which is that I can now confirm that we will make the “overflow” BTN feeds available to our customers throughout DC. I do not yet have the specific channel locations, but I know you were anxious for updates so wanted to let you know that they will be available.”

I remain skeptical for three reasons: (1) She’s a PR person, and seeing that Comcast was having its Customer Service Reps tell callers that they were going to add the BTN prior to last season, maybe this is just an attempt to keep me from switching to another provider (for the time being, at least). (2) Two separate impeccable “sources,” one of which works for Comcast, told me as late as 2 days ago that the temporary plan was to have just one overflow feed. (3) I’m a pessimist.

I’ll try to be optimistic about this, though, because I’ve dealt with this lady before and she seems honest, and both of my “sources” did indicate that no final decision regarding overflow feeds had been made. Plus, the email pasted above is the most recent and most “official” communication I’ve received, and it's from a high-level employee. Fingers crossed…

And to clarify – BTN is definitely being added to the Sports Tier in DC, as evidenced by the recent message that popped up on my cable box: “August 15, 2008 Comcast of the District, LLC is adding the following channels to the Sports & Entertainment Package: Big Ten Network on 257, HRTV on 259, and TV Games on 260.”

So we might find out the overflow details in 2 weeks, or we might have to wait until August 30th (the first day of games) to see what the real deal is. I urge all fans, even those in DC, to continue to call Comcast (1-800-COMCAST) to find out the setup in your area. If Comcast doesn’t know that there is demand for the overflow feeds, they certainly won’t add them.

6 Weeks Left

2008-07-19T10:32:00.003-04:00

The Truth is Out There

Did LSU schedule Appalachian State to “get back” at Michigan for the Les Miles fiasco? The game was announced in early February, and there wasn't much talk about it, maybe partially because LSU and Appalachian State have played once before (2005), so it didn't seem too fishy. But maybe there's more to the story that we don't know? I was recently looking at some TV listing for the upcoming season, and noticed that the game is on ESPN. I know that in the recent past, ESPN has contacted schools and said “we can put you on TV if you play Team X on Date Y.” Seeing that this game involves the three-ring circus of Les Miles, Appalachian State, and Michigan (all intertwined in history, in a transitive way), I figured that ESPN’s marketing team made the first call and set up the match-up. But in the NOLA article linked above, and in this ESPN release, there is no mention of the game being on ESPN (or any ESPN network). According to this article, the LSU folks initially expected the game to go untelevised, until ESPN came in later and asked to televise it, moving it from a night game to a late afternoon start. Considering that all major programs want exposure, exposure, exposure(!), one could speculate that LSU was willing to open its season untelevised just to rub it in the face of the Wolverines. Or maybe there just weren't any other opponents available. Either way, somebody call Mulder.

Final Image?

If you have a copy of The Wolverine’s 2008 Football Preview, turn to page 237. See that shirtless white dude in the far background… away from the team, at his locker, turning to look back while everybody celebrates with Lloyd? Is that Ryan Mallett? I think it is. If so, it’s a fitting image, and resembles what a lot of insiders said about Mallett: quite the character on the field (he was celebrating with Lloyd and animated on the sidelines during the bowl game), but maybe not the most liked or respected guy in the locker room. If that isn't him, then somebody needs to figure out who Mr. Lonely is.

Process of Elimination: MSU at 3:30

The MSU game seems as close to a lock for a 3:30 start as possible, because the other Big Ten kickoff times for that date have been announced:

Illinois @ Wisconsin: Noon – BTN, ESPN or ESPN2
Northwestern @ Indiana: Noon – BTN, ESPN or ESPN2
Minnesota @ Purdue: Noon – BTN, ESPN or ESPN2
Penn State @ Ohio State: 8 p.m. – ABC, ESPN or ESPN2
Iowa: Bye
Michigan State @ Michigan: TBA

The most prominent slot missing? 3:30 on ABC, which is where one would expect Michigan-MSU to go. Ultra-intense speculation/breakdown follows:

Maybe there’s an super-small chance that if both Michigan and MSU absolutely stink, the game will be given a Noon start on BTN, ESPN, or ESPN2, but that would mean no Big Ten 3:30 game on ABC – and I don’t think that’s ever happened, or is even allowed to happen since it probably violates the Big Ten’s contract with ABC/ESPN. Additionally, I’m thinking that the MSU game won’t be on BTN, unless that’s one of the weeks that they have the second pick. And seeing that the BTN hasn’t announced that it has the rights to MSU @ Michigan or Illinois @ Wisconsin, I’m guessing that BTN has 3rd or 4th pick on October 25th. I’d assume the BTN would want to promote their ownership of a game like UM-MSU, and if they had “second pick” they could start doing so now since ABC/ESPN has already claimed ownership of PSU-OSU. Even though Comcast has a deal with the BTN now, the BTN would still want to put pressure on Charter and other Michigan cable companies, and that would be a great way to do it (remember the hysteria when it was thought that Michigan-MSU might be on BTN last season?).

The guess here is that ABC wants, and will televise, Michigan-MSU, and BTN is aware of this, but nothing can be officially announced until a later date due to some random contract clause (i.e. “ABC/ESPN may select and announce X number of games before July 31, each year, but cannot select or announce additional games until the 6 to 12 day window kicks in”). In short, ABC knows what it’s getting, they just (a) can’t announce it, and/or (b) have virtually no incentive to announce it.

Comcast and BTN - Out of Market Concerns

2008-06-30T20:41:00.004-04:00

Most Comcast customers who follow Big Ten sports breathed a sigh of relief when it was finally announced that the nation's largest cable company would carry the Big Ten Network (BTN) this fall. Being an OCD "details type," I immediately wondered what the terms of the deal entailed. The press release was fairly vague, since (in my opinion) the most important thing about the BTN is having access to all of its "overflow" feeds, so you can see all of the games (without having to worry about whether you'll receive your team's game). This is especially important for me, since I live in Washington, DC. So if I only get one BTN channel, my "regional coverage" might be the BTN Game of the Week (which may or may not include Michigan), or worse yet, Penn State (since they're the closest geographically). This short blurb from the Baltimore Sun makes it sound like the BTN will be available on Comcast's Sports Entertainment Package in cities like Baltimore (stated), DC, NYC, etc. (inferred), which was expected. But what about those overflow feeds?!

So I tried to do the impossible: Get my issue on the books, and see if a Comcast employee in the Washington, DC area would actually respond to (and, more importantly, understand) my questions. It appears they did, since I didn't get a computer-generated response. But their response leaves more ambiguity than I was hoping for. Here it is, with names/numbers redacted. For what it's worth (nothing), it comes from a "higher up" employee who is responsible for the DC area:

Your e-mail was forwarded to me and I wanted to address your concerns as best as I could, now that we have announced our plans to carry the Big Ten Network. In terms of our carrying multiple games being played at the same time, I am told by our Marketing Department that --

"It is our understanding that each week, BTN will recommend a 'primary' game that will appear on BTN, and that game might vary by market. And you are correct; there may be one or more other games going on at the same time. We plan to review this situation week by week, and hope to bring our customers as many of these extra games as possible, based on level of interest and available channel capacity. BTN has told us that these details of this opportunity will not be available until August, and that they are quite subject to change, week to week, based on the game selections by ESPN, ABC and NBC."

A few thoughts:

- They don't come out and say they'll only have one feed, but judging by the email's tone, I'd be shocked if they plan on having all feeds. They specifically mention Comcast's "available channel capacity" (which is low, thanks to terrible planning and failure to implement new technology like Switched Digital Video). That's a bad sign, since that seems to be Comcast's second most common generic excuse when they don't want to carry a channel (lack of demand being the first, but we've already solved that one - kind of).

- About demand, or, "level of interest," as they put it. My most blunt response to this is that I can assure them that there will be 100 times more interest in Illinois @ Northwestern (which, admittedly, is a fairly lame game) than there will be in Lehigh @ Yale. Why does Lehigh-Yale matter in this discussion? Because that's the type of game that is often shown (on tape delay or replay, no less) on one of the three Fox College Sports (FCS) channels that Comcast has on its Sports Entertainment Package. How can they give us three channels of that rubbish, mixed in with a decent Big 12 or Pac-10 game now and then, and tell us that we only need one feed of the BTN? Seeing that the crappy FCS channels are owned by the BTN's partner (Fox), it would be painfully ironic if we were subjected to three channels of Stony Brook @ Hofstra, Southern Illinois @ Indiana State, and Youngstown State @ Northern Iowa while being left with only one BTN game every Saturday afternoon. I take that back - that would just be painful.

- Misinformation, as usual. The email makes it seem like BTN will have some say as to whether Comcast can show certain games (and when/where). But that's confusing the issue. The fact is that the BTN wants every feed to be available on every system in every home in America. They aren't going to dissuade Comcast from adding a 4th or 5th feed so fans can see every game, they're going to encourage that. But Comcast, as expected, isn't stating it that way. They write, "BTN has told us that these details of this opportunity will not be available until August," and they bring in irrelevant networks (ABC, ESPN, NBC) to blur the picture. Comcast, I'll save you the suspense and make things clear for you: You have the "opportunity" to add every BTN overflow channel so your customers can have access to every Big Ten Network game (just like DirecTV, Dish Network, and AT&T customers have)... do it! Thanks!

So in case you haven't realized it yet: If you're a Michigan fan with Comcast, living outside of Michigan, you might want to contact Comcast about their plans for the overflow feeds in your area. If you live in NYC or San Francisco, any and all overflows will likely be on the Sports Tier. If you live in Ohio, you might get an overflow or two on a Digital Tier. But call up and find out for yourself, and let Comcast know that demand exists for multiple feeds of the BTN. Sure, your requests and inquiries might not do any good, but considering the subscriber and stock hits they took last fall, it might get their attention. The BTN cost Comcast a fair amount of money last year, whether they want to admit it or not. Let's hope they're smart enough to realize that one BTN feed just won't cut it for out of market fans (or any Big Ten fan, for that matter).

Back Without a Vengeance

2008-03-23T13:02:00.003-04:00

End winter hibernation...

Spring Game Stuff

I’m a bit disappointed that the Spring Game won’t be at Ford Field this year, but that shouldn’t end the conversation. In fact, this should just be the beginning. The same construction issues will prevent next year’s Spring Game from being played at the Big House, so the folks in charge need to be planning a Spring Game at Ford Field in 2009, like, now. And the fans need to demand that it happens. The “we didn’t have enough time to plan it” excuse won’t cut it next year.

I’ve heard some people say that if the Spring Game can’t be at the Big House, then it shouldn’t be played at all. For real? It’s called marketing, people. Despite what you think, feel, or remember, I assure you that there are plenty of teenagers (soon to be playing football in college) who don’t know that Woodson won the Heisman. It’s time for us to enter the 21st century and stop acting like we’re above promoting our product. In terms of recruiting in and around Detroit, I think the Ford Field idea is a slam dunk. Heck, it would be a slam dunk in the eyes of the entire state, if they can pull it off the right way. Or maybe you’d rather sit out in the rain on a 42-degree day at Eastern Michigan’s stadium?

Jersey Talk

The anticipation for the new adidas jerseys got me thinking about the all-white jerseys that Michigan has sported a few times in the (distant) past. I found a good post about it on The Tunnel. Are the white pants magical?

Check out this video of Michigan Football in the 1970s – the all-whites are in full effect at 1:38, 2:33, 3:16, and 3:42. I like them, but don’t love them. They’re a notch below Penn State’s and Texas’, which set a high bar for road uniforms.

So when will the new adidas uniforms be unveiled? Based on some past adidas actions, probably not until the summer (duh). Here is what my limited research uncovered:

- Texas A&M announced the designs for their new adidas uniforms on June 25th of this past year. However, adidas was already selling A&M replica jerseys as early as April?

- Temple unveiled their new stuff a month later, on July 25th.

- A few years back, Kansas apparently waited until their media day: August 14, 2005.

- NC State didn’t unveil anything until the week before the season, back in 2004.

Taking the info above into consideration, maybe we'll see ours in June or July? Since we’re a big program, and some fans are freaking out about this, I wouldn’t expect adidas to make us wait until August. I guess the official contract begins at the end of the spring sports season (whenever that is), so maybe we’ll get an early surprise in the coming months?

The Scandal That Wasn’t

The whole Ann Arbor News “academic drama in the athletic department” story was fairly weak, but it did raise some good points. Brian had it right, I think. The system is inherently flawed, if not broken. As they used to say in 2002, don't hate the player, hate the game. But I wanted to add one unrelated thing:

This was sweet… “A university spokesman said Coleman was too busy to be interviewed, but eventually offered to answer questions via e-mail. The News declined.” Huh? If you’re looking for credibility and the trust of your reader, you might want to let the president of the University you’re attacking respond in any way that they can (or wish to), especially when the quote above was at the beginning of what was advertised as a 4-part series. I’m not saying that the whole series was a “hack job,” or whatever the term du jour is. It had some specifics that I didn’t know, but it focused on a system that everybody and their grandmother is already aware of. What I’ll take away from the series (or the quote above, at least) is that it reminded me how writers at the Ann Arbor News sometimes say stupid stuff.

Problems with a “Plus-One”

2008-01-21T15:27:00.000-05:00

Some are obvious, but worth noting...

The Pac-10 and SEC will benefit, the Big Ten and others will not

Let’s get this out there first, so maybe 17 years from now, the mainstream media will finally realize it: A “plus-one” would put the Big Ten at a competitive disadvantage. I’m not saying I’m against it. Actually, I’m all for it. I’m just saying it will probably hurt the Big Ten more than any other conference.

Under the current bowl/BCS system, Big Ten teams are playing virtual road games in bowls seemingly every year (OSU vs. LSU in New Orleans, Michigan vs. Florida in Orlando, Illinois vs. USC in Pasadena, Penn State vs. Texas A&M in San Antonio – and that’s just this season!). But imagine the 2014 college football postseason, where Michigan has to play USC in the Rose Bowl, and if they win, they get to play Miami in Miami for the national championship. Sweet!

There are other conferences that would feel the effects, too. The Big East (with the exception of South Florida), and to a lesser extent the Big 12 (unless the Cotton Bowl is included in any sort of plus-one plan – that would be great for Texas, OU, etc.). There would be an impact on the ACC, too, but Miami and Florida State would likely benefit.

If the plus-one thing happens, no matter how they set it up, then it will hurt fans who have to travel long distances for bowl games. Having 2 games in the first few weeks of January will really hurt the attendance for any Big Ten team ranked at or near the top of the polls. For instance, if the plus-one system means we go back to the old bowl setup, with an extra Championship Game afterwards, a #8 USC team might fill up the Rose Bowl with Trojan fans for a game vs. #1 Michigan. After all, that will be USC’s last game, it’s in LA, it’s against the top team in the country, etc. But Michigan fans would probably be reluctant to travel to a Rose Bowl game that they expect to win, when they are probably planning on going to the championship game the next week (or 2 weeks later, or however they set it up). Bump USC’s ranking up to #4 in the above scenario, and change the scenario to a "seeded" plus-one (#1 vs. #4, #2 vs. #3, with the winners facing off) and the Trojans would still dominate the stands, this time because they’re playing in their backyard in a virtual playoff game. The Michigan fan's dilemma remains the same: go to the USC game, wait and hope for the National Championship game, or spend a ton of money and (possibly) go to both.

In general, Pac-10 fans would have ownership of the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl locations. The SEC would control the Orange Bowl (along with Miami and FSU) and the Sugar Bowl. All of these statements have some level of truth to them now, but would be even more obvious under a plus-one system. The “semi-finals” of any plus-one game (seeded or unseeded, old bowl system or new) would essentially be a home game for any local team. The same could be said for the National Championship Game, although maybe to a lesser extent (my personal preferences might be clouding my predictions here - I would rather go to the game for all the marbles than the semi-final). This sort of disadvantage can obviously be overcome (see Michigan vs. Florida this year), but over time, the team with the home-field advantage wins more games. Someone much smarter than me also concluded, “[i]n general, the home advantage is greater in college athletics than for professional sports.”

The Politics of 1 vs. 2

Stewart Mandel says:

"[I]f you do a "pure" plus-one and revert to traditional bowl pairings, the Big Ten and Pac-10 champs play in Pasadena every year just like they always did, and then you conduct a new poll after the bowl games to determine the title participants. That method would be far clunkier, and there would be probably be years where it muddles things more than it clears them up, but it may be the only way anything's going to change." (emphasis mine)

This may be the only way things will change because the Rose Bowl folks, along with the Big Ten and Pac-10, seem adamant that they get a traditional Big Ten – Pac-10 match up more often than not. Since the start of the BCS, the Rose Bowl has gotten a Big Ten vs. Pac-10 game only 6 of 10 years. The Big Ten champion has not set foot inside the stadium since January 1, 2005. The Rose Bowl has lost top-ranked teams like USC and Ohio State to the BCS Championship Game a few times, and they are not happy about it. So to “revert back to traditional bowl pairings” might be the only way a plus-one will work, because keeping things as they are now, seeding the top 4 teams, and just playing an extra game will not appease the Rose Bowl. As plenty of others have stated over the years, they are arguably the biggest roadblock on the plus-one path.

Back to Mandel’s quote. By “clunkier,” Mandel is likely talking about the possibility of having #1 USC vs. #2 Michigan play in the Rose Bowl, before the plus-one game. And maybe you would fall into other political shadiness, like this: The Fiesta (Big 12), Orange (ACC), and Sugar (SEC) all have conference tie-ins, but the Big East is a free agent of sorts, and their champion can be selected by any BCS bowl depending on how the other selections go. Under the “pure” (as Mandel calls it) or “unseeded” (as I call it) plus-one system, we could have a scenario where #1 West Virginia is available to the Orange Bowl, but the Orange Bowl folks are getting pressure from the Big East and the BCS to pass on WVU, since #2 Virginia Tech is already automatically slotted in the Orange. So what happens there? Which politicians prevail? In the scenario above, the Orange Bowl could theoretically be forced to pass up a 1 vs. 2 match up in favor of #2 Virginia Tech vs. #10 Hawaii (or some other stinker).

Since the only bowl with two automatic bids is the Rose Bowl, the other bowls would be crazy to sign on for any sort of system that allows the Rose Bowl a 1 vs. 2 game in the “semi-final” round while denying such a game to all other bowls, as in the WVU-VT scenario above. This is just one of many potential sticking points that I've yet to see discussed, even though we’ve been talking about a plus-one for about 5 years now!

It would be great if we could go to a “seeded” plus-one, which would help minimize or eliminate the political factors. But the Rose Bowl would almost certainly not sign off on that, since it would mean more non-traditional bowl pairings, as discussed above. And when you read stuff like this:

Pac-10 commissioner Tom Hansen said last summer that a plus-one would be grounds for his conference pulling out of the BCS. Ohio State president Gordon Gee said in mid-December that a playoff would have to be "pried out of my cold, dead hands."

… well, that just makes you realize that things aren’t likely to change any time soon. And as a fan of college football, that just stinks. I'd rather have Michigan be forced to play three road games at on-campus locations to win the National Championship than continue under the ridiculous system that's currently in place.

A few things about 2008

2008-01-09T21:27:00.000-05:00

The first 5 weeks of 2008

It's a mini-tradition of mine to look ahead at each team's upcoming schedule as soon as a season is in the books. Here are some of the non-conference games that caught my eye:

August 30th

Southern Cal @ Virginia
Clemson vs. Alabama (in Atlanta)
Hawaii @ Florida
Michigan State @ Cal
Tulsa @ Texas Tech
Fresno State @ UCLA
Utah @ Michigan

September 6th

Auburn @ West Virginia
Tennessee @ UCLA
Miami @ Florida
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma
Oregon State @ Penn State

September 13th

Ohio State @ Southern Cal
Michigan @ Notre Dame
Arkansas @ Texas
Oregon @ Purdue
Kansas @ South Florida
Cal @ Maryland
Oklahoma @ Washington
Wisconsin @ Fresno State
Hawaii @ Oregon State
UCLA @ BYU (again)

September 20th

Georgia @ Arizona State
Iowa @ Pitt
Colorado @ Florida State
Miami @ Texas A&M
Boise State @ Oregon
Notre Dame @ Michigan State

September 27th

Virginia Tech @ Nebraska
West Virginia @ Colorado
Purdue @ Notre Dame

Death to all who call them the “Fighting Zookers”

Illinois had a very respectable year, even including the blowout loss against USC in the Rose Bowl. But I think we’ll find out how good they really are next season, when the schedule is a bit tougher, including:

8/30 – vs. Missouri (in St. Louis)
9/27 – @ Penn State
10/4 – @ Michigan
10/25 – @ Wisconsin
11/15 – Ohio State

They also have a potential trap game at home against Iowa on Nov. 1st (between Wisconsin and OSU). The Hawkeyes beat Illinois this past year. So could the Illini be looking at, say, 5 regular season losses? With Rashard Mendenhall going pro, I think Illinois will be taking a step back in 2008.

Speaking of Iowa, they have a fairly easy schedule next season, so a bounce-back should be in order. The Hawkeyes have "as many as 18 total starters" back, according to this extra-early Wikipedia page.

For the people who have never heard of MGoBlue.com

Here's Michigan’s 2008 Schedule:

8/30 – Utah
9/6 – Miami (OH)
9/13 - @ Notre Dame
9/20 - BYE
9/27 – Wisconsin
10/4 – Illinois (Homecoming)
10/11 – Toledo
10/18 - @ Penn State
10/25 – Michigan State
11/1 - @ Purdue
11/8 - @ Minnesota
11/15 – Northwestern
11/22 - @ Ohio State

In terms of difficulty, that's probably an average Michigan schedule. Is 4 losses the current over/under until the QB situation gets resolved? Steven Threet gotta eat!

Win Won it for Lloyd!

2008-01-02T16:35:00.000-05:00

This is going to be all over the place, and a lot of it isn’t even about the game itself:

Before I get started…

Raise your hand if you thought “here we go…” after Brandon Minor caught the ball with a foot out of bounds at the 7 yard line to open the game. I was so dispirited about the whole thing that I was actually happy we got a good spot on that play. The close-up showed that he stepped out at the 6.

What a huge win

I’m not talking about a huge win for Carr or the seniors. I’m talking about national perception. Fair or not, Michigan was being viewed as a program that was “slipping.” The losses to OSU, the bowl losses – 3 (maybe 4) straight years of offseason negativity following some disappointing finishes. So to come out and beat a media darling program like Florida, with its “genius” coach and Heisman-winning QB – that is a big win.

Let’s post an incorrect headline and then not back it up with actual info (because we can’t)!

The Express is a free mini-newspaper published by the Washington Post. In today’s edition, one headline on page 13 read “Michigan’s Passing Attack Torches Florida.” Fair enough. Right next to it, another headline read, “Vols Continue SEC’s Dominance Over the Big Ten.” And they wonder why they’re losing subscribers. This is the Washington Post, not the Tuscaloosa News. So, I guess the SEC has “dominated” the Big Ten by going 6-7 against its teams in bowl games over the past 5 seasons? You can make fun of the Jim Delany press release all you want (and deservedly so, especially regarding the academics argument), but the bottom line is that the Big Ten and SEC are generally on par with each other. The numbers don’t lie. Mainstream media: Enough of this crap!

Florida: Lloyd’s second-favorite state?

Michigan was 5-2 under Carr in the Florida bowl games (Outback, Citrus, and Orange). They had 2 wins over Florida (in Florida, remember – a virtual road game for us). And the only losses were to Alabama in Gene Stallings’ last game, and to the 2001 Tennessee team, which was probably a Top-3 team and should have been in the BCS.

Get me that DVD!

Somebody who is smarter than me needs to pass this along to the media folks at U of M. I’m sure they’ve already thought about this, but in case they haven’t: Michigan needs to release a DVD of this game, complete with extras, interviews, locker room speeches, everything. In the past few years, Michigan has sent out a DVD to season ticket holders. A fully-loaded DVD of the Michigan-Florida game would be fitting. I don’t want a season recap (too many low points) – I want a DVD of this game, because you know that ESPN Classic ain’t gonna show it.

Big Ten SPEED kills

1 – TE Carson Butler running down the sidelines like Antonio Gates on the clear.

2 – CB Morgan Trent coming from outside of the frame to track down and tackle super-speedy Florida RB/WR Percy Harvin. This play saved Michigan 7 points, as Florida ended up getting a FG blocked.

3 – WR Mario Manningham reversing field on the entire Gator defense.

A few thoughts on the last few minutes

- The defense at the end of the game was a thing of beauty. That felt and looked like a Michigan defense: 8 plays, 4 yards, zero first downs, sustained pressure, and a bunch of incompletions: Game Over.

- On offense, of course I was one of those people hoping that Lloyd would go for the jugular instead of the last field goal. And in hindsight, it appears he might have tried to. After re-watching our final 3rd-down play a few times, I think that Henne checked into the draw to Minor. My guess is primarily based on this logic: If the draw was the original call, why was Minor in for Hart? In fact, one final Lloyd nitpick: Why was Minor in for Hart under any circumstances?

- After the last FG put us up by 6, I said to my friend Ben, “the boards and the blogs are going to melt down after we lose by 1.” It was a similar situation to OSU 2005, where a first down seals the game but you get the sinking feeling that Lloyd would rather “play it safe.” The difference? In 2005, there was virtually no argument for playing it safe. Against Florida there was a legitimate one, all things considered (score, timeouts, field position, FG kicker, etc.) Thankfully it worked out, because I was ready for Brian’s head to explode. Part of me is convinced that Lopata’s kick was blocked and returned for a TD, and that I’m currently living in some sort of psychotic dream where we won, Lloyd got carried off the field, and snowflakes are actually little bits of vanilla ice cream.

Finally…

You’ve probably read this AP article somewhere today. I found it funny that the middle-aged white dude who wrote it (Larry Lage) thought they were saying “Lloyd, take off your coat,” instead of clothes. He’s not a DJ Assault fan? Shocking! Anyway, that’s comical stuff and a good article.

This was just a great football game – and isn’t it nice to end the season on a high note for what feels like the first time in forever? Wasn’t it great to see our team playing with passion and intensity (well, except for Minor’s brain fart on the opening kickoff)? A few times I was worried that we’d get flagged for all of the fake gator chomping and post-whistle jostling. Maybe I just should have taken Ron English's approach: "(Bleep) that! We're doing it for Coach Carr!" They did it, alright. Hail to the Victors!

In Rod We Trust

2007-12-16T20:02:00.000-05:00

As is often the case in these types of situations, I haven’t had enough time to let everything sink in. But it’s fair to say that I’m very excited. It’s somewhat odd that my last post was about West Virginia. I took an unannounced “leave of absence” during this coaching search because the frustrations (Ferentz?! MILES!! Ferentz again?!?! Huh? The “choppin’ wood” guy?! MILES AGAIN!! Please no Brady Hoke…) were getting to me from day one. It probably would have been nice to vent online, but you guys put up with enough of that crap already.

On Tuesday night I was out to dinner with my girlfriend, and for some reason she started asking about football formations, plays, defenses, etc. (yes, she is the coolest girl ever). At that point Rich Rodriguez was not on any of the lists being put out by the Detroit papers and Michigan websites, and it appeared that he (along with Brian Kelly) was being given the cold shoulder by the Michigan brass. But in that conversation with my girlfriend, I talked about his spread option offense, and how he arguably invented many of the intricacies of that scheme. I also talked about the 3-3-5 defense, and how I was not a big fan. Just a handful of days later, he is our head coach. Weird.

Things I’m happy about

With Rodriguez, we get a guy who is clearly a great X’s and O’s coach (heck, even Senator Tressel visited WVU this past offseason to get some tips). Rodriguez can and has re-tooled his systems to fit his personnel. If you think he’s a run-first-only type of guy, check out his work as OC and QB Coach at Tulane with Shaun King in 1998. 183.3 passing efficiency rating?! 36 TDs, 6 INTs?! We might shift to a dual-threat QB soon, but Rodriguez will know what to do with Ryan Mallett.

Rodriguez seems to be a great developer of talent. WVU has not had much recruiting success under Rodriguez, which is a bit disturbing, but he has taken plenty of off-the-radar players and made them successful contributors.

He’s young (44), and he left is alma mater to come to Michigan. There will be some debate over whether he would jump to the NFL, but I don’t see it - at least not yet. And if he does head for the pros, that will likely mean he had a very strong run at Michigan. If that’s the case, so be it.

Things I’m concerned about (but might not need to be)

As mentioned above, the 3-3-5 defense. I think it’s a system for lesser-talented teams, designed to cover up potential weaknesses. The Wikipedia gnomes say that “[t]eams that run the 3-3-5 generally use it because they are a fast but sometimes smaller unit….” I’m fine with it in certain situations, but if it’s our base defense, I’ll be a bit worried. I don’t think the 3-3-5 will fit in the Big Ten, and I think Rodriguez is smart enough to realize this.

I’m also a bit worried about how much control “Coach Rod” will actually have over assistants and the strength & conditioning program. It has long been rumored that Mike Gittelson will be retiring at the end of this season, taking his antiquated methods with him. But over the past month or so, some informed parties have stated that he might be sticking around. If Rodriguez, who is known to have a great S&C program, is handcuffed in any way, I will be upset. Similarly, current word on the street is that Rodriguez was told that he would have to keep certain assistant coaches from Michigan’s staff. Again, this is disappointing. Our new coach needs to have free rein over all facets of his coaching and training staff.

The Les Miles situation

As many others have said, there is no such thing as a fairy tale ending. If there was, Les Miles would have beaten Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game then accepted the Michigan job the next day. Now, you can argue that Michigan (Bill Martin) never wanted Miles. You could even argue that Miles was miffed at Michigan after the soap opera that was the past two weeks. But some informed people believe that Michigan would have gone after Miles after the LSU-OSU game, and that Les was still interested. However, the Rodriguez situation might have been a “bird in the hand” type of thing. So don’t feel too sorry for Michigan, and don’t feel too sorry for Les Miles. Michigan got a great coach who many would argue is a better football mind than Les Miles. And Miles has a great program at LSU, where he will undoubtedly continue to be successful. I will always root for Les, and it would have been nice to have seen him in Ann Arbor – it just wasn’t meant to be. Blame it on the BCS Championship, blame it on Lloyd Carr, blame Canada - whatever. Life will go on.

Is this weird for you? I thought you hated West Virginia?!

Hate is too strong of a word, but I have made a few posts that were critical of WVU and the Big East. The main reasons for these posts are because I don’t think that WVU and the rest of the Big East have a lot of talent/depth, and teams like WVU, Louisville, and Rutgers have benefited from the departures of Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College. Point #1 is based on recruiting rankings, which are arguably flawed. Point #2 is based on common sense: 3 good teams left the Big East and other teams rose up to replace them. It’s not that I think they play crappy football in the Big East, I just wonder if their success has been accomplished with smoke and mirrors.

That being said, I can certainly separate the team from the coach. Rodriguez has forgotten more about football than I will ever dream of knowing, and top-notch coaches consistently sing his praises. Even if I think his WVU teams have been overrated at times, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t coached his butt off. Coach Rod is clearly a guy that will give Michigan a schematic advantage in most of its games. We have great talent, now we have a great coach. There’s reason to be excited about Michigan football again.

Bottom Line?

"Bottom line -- Michigan stepped up to the plate," said SuperPrep recruiting analyst Allen Wallace. "They've gone out and stolen one of the elite coaches in the game. If I were a Michigan fan, I'd be having a party tonight." And with that, I’m outta here.

WVU and the BCS

2007-11-25T20:21:00.000-05:00

As I contemplated just how upset I would be if Kirk Ferentz ends up being Michigan's next head coach (right now, "extremely"), I had some thoughts about the team that has become my second-favorite blog topic: the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Who did WVU play and beat?

West Virginia is about to waltz into the BCS Championship Game. Don't say I didn't warn you. I'll be interested to see if any talking heads mention WVU's relatively easy schedule, or if people just give it to them without a discussion. Think about this for a second: The Mountaineers will likely be playing for the BCS Championship without having defeated a single team in the current BCS Top 20. And on top of that, the best team they played (#21 South Florida) beat them. If WVU makes it to New Orleans, I'm pretty sure they will be the first team with those odd distinctions. I'm not saying that West Virginia isn't a good team. I think White, Slaton, and Devine can burn anybody on any given day. But did they earn a BCS Title shot, or did they just benefit from the rest of the big boys beating up on each other?

What about the Buckeyes?

One thing in WVU's favor is that Ohio State's schedule isn't that pretty, either. Here's one thing I was thinking about: If OSU had lost at Illinois (instead of at home), and if WVU had lost at home to South Florida (instead of on the road), would OSU have a leg up on WVU? And even as it stands now, how much of an argument does OSU have if there's a "snub" on Sunday's BCS selection show? Seeing that Illinois gave #1 Missouri all they could handle and might get a BCS berth while South Florida cooled off a bit, I think OSU has a legitimate beef. But last year's loss to Florida will come back to haunt the Buckeyes if WVU and Missouri win on Saturday. National perception matters, fair or not.

Final random thoughts

In a year as crazy as this one has been, why are 2-loss teams being left out of the discussion? And if this was the mid-90s, LSU would be undefeated with 2 ties. Would that matter? Just some stuff to think about...

Thank you, Lloyd

2007-11-19T21:47:00.000-05:00

I’m no good when it comes to nostalgia, but I definitely want to thank Lloyd Carr for everything that he’s done for Michigan Football. His successes both on and off the field have been, as he would say, tremendous. Not perfect, of course, but nothing to be ashamed of – not by a long shot. There were disappointments and frustrations along the way, but those are overshadowed by a lot of great memories and big victories. And beyond that, Lloyd ran what is generally considered to be a very clean program (especially by “big time football” standards). He might have been short with the media at times, but after seeing how some of those folks refused to give credit to Brian last week after reporting on the story that he broke (“internet reports” … idiots), I say good for him. Lloyd loved his players and he loves Michigan. That’s why I will always respect and admire him.

He wasn’t the best game strategist in the world, but he put up some quality results. If you would have told me that Carr would close out his career with 9 straight wins over PSU and 6 (or, 8) straight wins over MSU, I would have taken that in a heartbeat. On the other hand, if you would have told me that he would struggle with some weaker Notre Dame teams and finish with 6 losses in 7 years against OSU, I might have said “no, thanks.” But overall, it was a good run. Lloyd’s most ardent supporters often point to 1997, 1999, and 2006, but I think there was a nice “peak” to Lloyd’s career, and it only started with 1997. The seven year run that Carr had from 1997 to 2003 was a good one. Very good:

69-18 overall record: 79% winning percentage

46-10 Big Ten record: 82% winning percentage

1 National Title

4 Big Ten Titles

5-2 in bowl games: All New Year’s Day bowls, or better. The 2 losses came to #1 USC and #8 Tennessee (which was arguably a Top 3 or 4 team that season)

5 ten win seasons

4-3 vs. Ohio State: Including 2 wins when OSU was ranked #4

6-0 vs. Penn State: Including the “Judgment Day” domination

6-0 vs. Wisconsin: Including 2 wins in years when Wisconsin went to (and won) the Rose Bowl

5-2 vs. Michigan State: Or 6-1, if you take away Clockgate

3-2 vs. Notre Dame: Including the first beatdown (38-0 in 2003)

If our next coach can duplicate those results, I’ll be a happy dude. So thank you, Lloyd. Thank you for 1997, for keeping Michigan a top program, for your integrity, and for knowing that it was time to retire. Thank you, and Go Blue!

My arm got squeezed!!

2007-11-15T22:41:00.000-05:00

A few quick things after a long absence and before what should be a crazy weekend:

- Prior to the Michigan-Georgetown basketball game tonight, the UMDC alumni association had John Beilein come speak for a few minutes before the game (about 6:15 p.m., IIRC). I was waiting for my girlfriend at the door, and when Coach Beilein came in, I got to talk to him for a quick minute. He seemed like a nice guy - very personable, firm handshake, appreciative of the support... all the things you'd expect from a coach. We had the entire first floor of Clyde's packed with Michigan fans, and Coach Beilein actually got up on one of the bar area tables to talk to us. I don't remember every word, but he mentioned something like "If you could see our practices, they look like middle school practices." Talked about fundamentals, asked that we be patient with the team, said that the team will grow throughout the year, etc. Finished it with something like, "On Saturday, let's beat the snot out of the Buckeyes." Yes, he definitely said "snot," which I found amusing. This of course led to a big cheer and a chorus of The Victors. I think I saw a tourist or two in the corner, probably wondering what in the world was going on.

- Maybe more important, depending on how you dissect it, was my quick pseudo-conversation with Associate Athletic Director Greg Harden (Who is Greg Harden? This is Greg Harden - a really cool guy, it seems). Coach Beilein had introduced him and another member of the staff, and I leaned over to Mr. Harden and said "You guys have called Les Miles, right?" He just smiled (knowingly? It was hard to tell). I said "You know you've got him." At that point, he shook my hand and gave me some sort of arm squeeze (with his other hand). It was like two quick squeezes, hand grasping the biceps, and it really left me befuddled. He walked away without saying a word. A smile, a handshake, and an arm squeeze. I relayed this story to a few friends, and they all seemed to think that it was telling re: Miles coming to U of M (some more than others). I have no idea what to make of it, I'm just posting it because (1) people seem to love to read the tea leaves, especially this week (rightfully so), and (2) I have no idea what it meant, if anything!

- The b-ball game was what it was. Kelvin Grady is a good player and someone we really could have used the past few years (a guard and a player who goes all out all the time). Manny Harris is a pure basketball player, but he needs more experience and improved fundamentals. Ron Coleman needs to not start, and arguably needs to not play. He just looked BAD tonight. Rebounding was weak and the team looked a bit lost at times. But there was some flow on offense, which was a good sign after years of Amaker-ball. Georgetown is a very good team, so I'm not sure how upset to be about the loss. It's clear that we don't have many pure shooters, and when DeShawn Sims has a bad night (like tonight) we're going to struggle. Zach Gibson might end up being a pleasant surprise. He had a few "hustle" type of rebounds and defensive plays.

- One random thing that I wrote down on Saturday but never posted. Don't necessarily trust the ESPN ticker! After years of near-perfect accuracy, the ESPN ticker was all messed up for the Texas - Texas Tech game. During Ron Zook's post-game presser, ESPN's ticker said "Texas Tech 10, Texas 39 - 9:00 left 4th quarter." I knew this was wrong since on my other TV was the game itself: Texas Tech 28, Texas 38 - 9:00 left 4th quarter. Come on, ESPN!

- I'm off to Ann Arbor. MUST BEAT OHIO STATE. Win one for Lloyd (and Hart, and Henne, and Long...). See you there... Go Blue!

Lloyd Carr vs. Les Miles: To the Death!

2007-11-01T20:03:00.000-04:00

"No! To the pain…"

As the season winds down, bowl projections and BCS selections move to the forefront of the discussion. Additionally, the “Les Miles to Michigan” buzz is slowly but surely building. So I wanted to talk about this stuff for a second. With all due respect to my friend Ben, who contends that the powers that be won’t let it happen (more on that later), I think that a Michigan-LSU bowl game is a possibility. Granted, there are thousands of “what if” scenarios still on the table. I’m just saying that Michigan-LSU isn’t unfathomable. Let’s break it down…

Unless the college football world gets completely turned on its head, Michigan isn’t going to play for the BCS Championship. Shocking, I know. While the big prize isn’t attainable anymore, Michigan’s bowl destination won’t be as bad as most predicted after the 0-2 start. Seeing that Michigan has zero Big Ten losses and every other conference team (except OSU, obviously) has at least 2, Michigan will almost certainly end up in the Rose Bowl, Capitol One (Citrus) Bowl, or Outback Bowl.

LSU, on the other hand, has bigger things in mind. The Tigers are on path to play in the BCS Championship Game or finish just outside the Top 2 in the final BCS standings (prompting plenty of hootin' and hollerin' from SEC country, no doubt). However, these scenarios assume that LSU will run the table. Take a look at LSU’s remaining schedule:

@ Alabama
Louisiana Tech
@ Ole Miss
Arkansas
SEC Championship Game

Not a daunting slate, but a tough road game in Tuscaloosa this weekend and the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta (where they might face local favorite Georgia) are potential roadblocks.

So how (and where) could Michigan and LSU meet up? As I see it, there are four bowls in which the Wolverines and Tigers could play each other, and some bowl destinations have more than one scenario under which each team could get there. Here’s my take, from most ideal scenario to least:

Rose Bowl (Big Ten Champion vs. Pac-10 Champion)

Michigan gets there by:

Winning the Big Ten championship.

This is fairly simple. Win out, and Michigan is in the Rose. Lose to MSU, then win the last 2, and Michigan is in the Rose. Beat MSU, lose to Wisconsin, and beat OSU… and Michigan still would be in the Rose, provided Wisconsin has lost one more game before the end of the season (which they might this Saturday against OSU). Since Michigan controls its own destiny, and can probably afford a loss to either MSU or Wisconsin, a Big Ten title is very possible. Once again, it will probably be a “one game season.”

Winning their next 2 games before losing to OSU.

This scenario is unlikely, but not impossible. Rivals.com thinks Michigan heads to the Rose after a loss to OSU, and considering (1) the lack of quality BCS teams this year, and (2) the Rose Bowl’s stated preference for Big Ten and Pac-10 teams, Michigan could get an invite. Again, this is doubtful but not unimaginable. However, this would make 4 of 5 years with Michigan in the Rose Bowl, with the last 3 Rose Bowl trips all coming after losses to OSU. Does the Rose Bowl really want us if that’s the case?

LSU gets there by:

Receiving an at-large BCS bid.

This is where it gets more confusing, primarily because we have no idea who will be in the BCS Championship Game. But assuming a Pac-10 team like Oregon or Arizona State is one of the teams there, the Rose Bowl would either get first or second pick of the at-large teams (depending on if the BCS standings). Then, LSU becomes ridiculously attractive to the Rose Bowl:

- Good team that spent the majority of the year in the Top 5.
- Unbelievably rabid fan base – no problem selling tickets.
- Michigan and LSU have never met. (The Rose Bowl loved the first meeting between Texas and Michigan, no doubt.)
- The whole “Miles is replacing Carr” storyline.
- Not to mention the “Miles coached at Michigan under Bo” storyline.
- Would likely guarantee them the most interesting BCS game (beside the Championship), even if both teams are coming off of losses.
- High TV ratings (SEC vs. Big Ten).
- LSU’s first trip to the Rose Bowl. In fact, LSU’s first bowl game on the West Coast.
- And the list goes on…

Taking a step back… This scenario assumes that there is no Pac-10 team with an attractive resume, and that is a big assumption. The loser of Oregon/ASU this weekend will likely be a decent choice, and if USC finishes the season on a winning streak you know their name will be in the mix. If LSU is going to end up in the Rose Bowl, they might need another USC loss and a really bad finish from either Oregon or Arizona State.

Keep in mind that if LSU loses at Alabama this weekend, and Alabama runs the table (at Miss State, vs. LA-Monroe, at Auburn), LSU is shut out of the SEC Championship Game and likely finishes the season with 2 losses. This is a similar situation to last year, where LSU “avoided” a potential 3rd loss by not having to play in the SEC Championship Game, and received a BCS at-large berth.

Also note that LSU theoretically could get a Rose Bowl invite with as many as 3 losses, assuming they’re still in the BCS top 14 (and thus BCS eligible). See my discussion of how Michigan could get to the Sugar Bowl to understand the rationale for that one - the "LSU in the Rose Bowl" argument is pretty much analogous.

Sugar Bowl (SEC Champion vs. At-Large)

Michigan gets there by:

Receiving an at-large BCS bid

If Michigan does not win the Big Ten, that means that they will have lost one of their last two games (most likely a loss to OSU). Since the Sugar Bowl is set up as an “SEC vs. At-Large” bowl, the Sugar will not have one of the first at-large selections under this scenario, since they wouldn’t have “lost” a team to the BCS Championship Game. A 9-3 Michigan team is usually not that attractive to BCS bowl committees, but compared to some of the leftovers that might be available (Virginia Tech (who’s already played LSU), Kansas, Connecticut, Missouri, Hawaii, Boston College, Arizona State, and so on) Michigan is the biggest draw, even if they have a few more losses than some of the available schools. Note that this scenario assumes a 9-3 Michigan team would be ranked in the Top 14 of the BCS. One valid argument against this happening is that if LSU finishes the season with just 1 loss, the Sugar Bowl (and LSU, for obvious reasons) would probably prefer to pit the Tigers against the highest-rated team at-large team available in order to give LSU an outside shot at a split national title. Michigan wouldn't be that team. If LSU finishes with 2 losses and an SEC Championship, this match-up is more likely, but still a long shot.

LSU gets there by:

Winning the SEC, but not finishing 1st or 2nd in the BCS standings.

Pretty self-explanatory, right?

Capitol One Bowl (Big Ten #2 vs. SEC #2)

Michigan gets there by:

Not winning the Big Ten, and not receiving an at-large BCS bid.

This is arguably the most likely scenario for Michigan, at least as things stand right now. OSU and Michigan are the class of the Big Ten, and if Michigan loses The Game they will likely head to Orlando for the Bowl Formerly Known as the Citrus.

LSU gets there by:

Not winning the SEC, and not receiving an at-large BCS bid.

This is a much less likely bowl destination for LSU than it is for Michigan, but it isn’t unrealistic. It would obviously require a loss in the SEC Championship (assuming they make it) coupled with at least one more loss in the regular season. If LSU doesn’t make the SEC Championship Game, it would probably require 2 losses in their final 4 regular season games.

Outback Bowl (Big Ten #3 vs. SEC #3 or #4)

Michigan gets there by:

One word: Implosion.

I don’t even want to think about this. Losing to MSU and/or Wisconsin, and losing to OSU – that’s how we “earn” a visit to Tampa.

LSU gets there by:

An implosion that makes Michigan’s implosion look like a day at the park.

LSU is currently the only SEC team with one loss. To fall behind teams like Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, or Florida (a team they beat) in the SEC pecking order would mean a rough finish and an embarrassing loss or two.

So how realistic is a Michigan-LSU match-up?

I don’t know what sort of percentage to put on it… 3%? The bottom line is that Michigan is going to a bowl game, and the opponent could very well be an SEC team. LSU is an SEC team. Plug that into some crappy formula, and there you have it: “a chance.” Earth-shattering stuff, huh?

I think the Outback Bowl (please no) and Sugar Bowl scenarios are glorified pipe dreams (or nightmares, re: Outback). I think the Rose Bowl scenario is possible, but a very long shot. I think that out of the four bowl destinations, the Capitol One is clearly the most likely, as it’s the most likely outcome for Michigan and the 3rd-most likely scenario for LSU (after a BCS automatic bid and a BCS at-large bid).

But there are political factors at play, no doubt. Would the powers that be prevent such a match-up, as my friend Ben asserts? And who are the powers that be, anyway? How much pull do the schools have? Questions abound:

- Would the Michigan big shots be able to persuade the Rose Bowl to pass on LSU (in favor of a less-attractive option)?- Would LSU want to play Michigan, all things considered?
- Would the Michigan big shots kindly ask the Sugar Bowl reps to not select the Wolverines, even if that meant Michigan would be going to the Capitol One Bowl instead of a BCS game?
- Could the teams trade coaches prior to kickoff, so as to give Miles a “test run” at Michigan before Bill Martin shells out the big bucks?

I know I spent way too much time and energy on this post, and that it will come back to haunt me in the form of a loss to Michigan State this weekend, but that’s life. I also realize that considering the political issues, this is more like a Jim Carrey Dumb and Dumber style “so you’re saying there's a chance” situation. And because I want Les Miles as our next head coach, I’m not sure I want said game to take place. Just something to think about…

Help a dude out: Trinity @ Millsaps – The untold (and unkown?) story

2007-11-01T18:47:00.000-04:00

After talking to some friends about the crazy ending that everybody has seen by now, I realized that many people aren’t aware of this: Millsaps (a.k.a. “the team that lost”) had a chance to run out the clock on the previous play. Word? Word! As this article states:

“[W]ith eight seconds remaining the [Millsaps] Majors took their last time out to avoid a delay of game penalty…. On fourth down, Millsaps quarterback Burt Pereira slowly faded to his left. He was unable to evade Trinity's Ryan Johnson, and with two seconds left -- and 60 yards from the end zone -- Trinity had one desperate last chance.”

After reading that article and listening to Trinity’s coach on ESPN’s College Football Live on Monday, I was pretty sure that Millsaps was trying to kill the clock as opposed to going for the first down. But after looking around online, I’m not sure about anything.

What I’m trying to figure out is whether there was another major coaching blunder here. Obviously there was with the 15-lateral play, but that’s another story. So what was going on here? Did Millsaps (and former Alabama) head coach Mike DuBose completely blow it on that 4th down play? Did the QB mess up? Did the defender make a great play? What happened?! Unfortunately, the internet is filled with a bunch of quotes that aren’t too big on the details, like this: “Millsaps had tried to run out the clock but was unsuccessful, giving the ball back to Trinity after a failed fourth-down run.” Um... OK.

We know that there were 8 seconds on the clock, which is a decent amount of time to kill (but not impossible). We know that the ball was somewhere past midfield, near the Millsaps 40-yard line. One unknown is what was the distance required for a first down? After some digging, I saw that Lawpundit
has an apparent copy & paste which states that “Millsaps went for the first down on 4th and 2 at … the Trinity 40-yard line and failed to make it,” but the link related to that copy/paste doesn’t say anything about 4th-and-2. Maybe the original author edited or corrected the “4th and 2” statement? I don’t know... but this only added to my frustration.

So, to recap, can anybody clarify this for me? Specifically:

- How many yards did Millsaps need on that 4th down?
- On what yard line was the ball spotted to begin that 4th down?

And most importantly…

- Did Millsaps appear to be trying to gain a first down, or trying to run out the clock?

Any other related info would be appreciated. Please forward the permalink for this post (see below) to anybody who might know the answer(s). I won’t rest until the truth is revealed! Is Mike DuBose the worst coach in America, or just a guy who teaches his defenders to play zone defense (basketball style)?

Michigan 27, Illinois 17: Random thoughts, as usual

2007-10-23T21:52:00.000-04:00

The Man kept me down last week, which was disappointing on many levels, but mainly disappointing because I went to the Purdue game and had some extra random thoughts. But that’s old news. About Illinois:

- On our 3rd-and-goal from the 8 yard line on our first scoring drive (which ended with a FG to make it 7-3), Jeremy Ciulla moved early, but a false start wasn’t called. Just another criticism on a night where he looked completely lost at times. The right side of the line was sub-par, and the center-quarterback exchange continues to be a mess. Steve Schilling had his worst game of his career. Illinois was one of the nation’s best in terms of sacks entering the game, so I’m hoping that they were just “on” and we were just “off.” Otherwise, we might get a wake up call against Michigan State, who has had strong DL play.

- Max Pollock was at LB on the weak side for a 3rd-and-1 to open the 2nd quarter. Word? Jonas Mouton was playing a few downs at what appeared to be MLB in the 2nd quarter, as well.

- The whole Mallett/Carr “argument” is being way overblown. My thoughts: (1) Mallett, as I’ve said before, continues to show very good pocket presence for a freshman, (2) he was holding the ball in his throwing hand, waving it back and forth as he moved; he was lucky it didn’t get stripped (I’m pretty sure this was Carr’s main beef), (3) do people really think that players don’t get seriously chewed out from time to time (in games, practice, film room)? This wasn’t the first time for Ryan and it won’t be the last, and (4) despite ABC showing Mallett appearing upset after the incident (with his helmet still on on the sideline), Mallett was celebrating like a madman after the Arrington-to-Manningham TD and could also be seen actively engaged in the game during other sideline shots. He will be fine, his relationship with Lloyd will be fine, and he’ll be a great QB for Michigan. On a side note, the play-calling while Mallett was in the game was giving me bad flashbacks to the Northwestern game.

- Were we lucky to win? I’m inclined to say “no.” Entering the 4th quarter, we had turned the ball over 3 times, and Illinois hadn’t turned it over yet. In the 4th quarter, yes, we got a complete gift on the muffed punt, but there were plenty of plays that didn’t go our way at crucial points in the game. How about the tipped-ball interception at our 40-yard line when we were down 7-0 and we looked like a bunch of deer in the headlights? How about a handful of fumbled snaps, resulting in one turnover near the red zone and a few wasted downs? Illinois played undisciplined football, but we weren’t exactly mistake-free. We didn’t commit many penalties, but we didn’t bring our “A” game by any stretch of the imagination.

- Speaking of the muffed punt, there was definitely a whistle blown before the play ended. I am 83% sure that it came from the referee who was standing behind the punter (and who eventually made the call that it was Michigan’s ball). After the play, you can clearly see the punt returner motioning that he heard a whistle. During the play (which is the reason for my 83%), you can clearly see the ref put his whistle in his mouth way early – like he is anticipating the play being over ASAP.

- John Ferrara got absolutely frozen on an option read where Juice Williams picked up a big gain. That was painful to watch. Herbstreit called him out on it, adding insult to injury. I don’t mind playing these young guys (like Ferrara and Renaldo Sagesse), but what’s the deal with playing them so early and so often lately? Are the DL starters really that out of shape? Are these guys impressing in practice?

- Just a reminder: If you’re gonna give Lloyd credit for 6 wins in a row (which I will), you can’t let him slide on the first 2 games of the season. Instead of all of this stuff about how this is “Lloyd’s best coaching job,” wouldn’t it have been nice to have actually beaten Appalachian State?... or maybe come within a dozen of Oregon? I understand that people are impressed that Lloyd was able to keep the team motivated and fairly well-prepared after those debacles. Avoiding those debacles would have been the preferred route, obviously. As is often the case, Brian put it nicely:

“Of course I am hung up on the first two games of the year. I would remind you that we went from national championship contenders to national laughingstocks in two quick weeks in the senior years of Jake Long, Chad Henne, and Mike Hart largely because the team was woefully ill-prepared to stop a I-AA team that could not throw. The horrendous coaching breakdowns that led to the parade of mistakes do continue to color my opinion of the team and the year and will do so until the sun expands and consumes the earth. Given Carr's well-established track record it would be silly to do otherwise.”

- Our kick return blocking was horrendous. Just terrible. But Lloyd’s teams are always fundamentally sound, right? We certainly don’t need a Special Teams coach… nope!

- Zoltan’s acting skills are top notch. There wasn’t much contact on the roughing the punter penalty, but he sold it like Ric Flair in his prime. Woooooo!

- After Manningham’s first TD reception, Carson Butler got into it with #44 from Illinois. #44 pushed Butler when Carson came over to celebrate the TD. Then Butler threw an open-handed left to the dude’s face. It was not a punch, since there was no closed fist, but it sure looked like one until I slow-mo’d it. This all took place right in front of a ref, who must have seen it. #44 turned to him for a penalty, but to no avail. The Illinois player wasn’t innocent, but Butler needs to keep his cool. That was dumb, dumb, dumb, and the type of “retaliation” penalty that is usually called.

Post-EMU, Pre-Purdue

2007-10-11T18:31:00.000-04:00

Michigan stuff:

- Some people have noted that Junior Hemingway looked much shorter than they imagined. If he’s 6’3” (like the official roster says he is), then I’m Andre the Giant. There’s no way he’s as tall as Arrington.

- Now that we’re finally playing a team with a pulse, we get into “if we win this game” territory. I’m not going to get into that stuff, but if we beat Purdue and Illinois avoids a letdown at Iowa, it sounds like ESPN College Gameday might be at Illinois next weekend.

- So just when people are starting to praise Morgan Trent and talking about how Donovan Warren is the next Marlin Jackson, Ty Law, or any other very good cornerback not named Woodson, Purdue comes to town and might put up 50 passes (considering the relatives strengths/weaknesses of each team). While we have been solid against Purdue’s attack in the past, this is 2007, and in 2007 Michigan loses to Appalachian State. Two things that worry me: (1) We didn’t play Purdue last year, and (2) our play in the defensive backfield has almost been too good to be true the past few games.

- Steve Schilling at RG and Mark Ortmann at RT struggled at times, especially Schilling (who gave up a 3rd down sack in the red zone). I didn’t re-watch the game this week, but I thought their run-blocking was decent. I was actually surprised at how many times we ran right. Of course we do this against Eastern Michigan…

Other college football stuff:

- This was the 2nd straight week of great college football, partly due to a few upsets. I tend to enjoy these types of weekends more when Michigan plays a Noon game against a weaker opponent, as opposed to an important game later in the day (like PSU 2005, which was playing opposite the classic USC-ND game).

- After discussing it with Jake over the past few weeks, I have Les Miles at #1 and Jeff Tedford at #2, head and shoulders above any other potential coaching candidates. Even if Miles loses a game or two, I think I’ll still be on the bandwagon. Some might argue that having Miles NOT win a National Championship this year is in Michigan’s best interest (assuming they want to hire him). His price would go up, he might be tempted to build a dynasty at LSU, and Michigan would have to wait an extra week to interview/hire him (since the BCS Championship Game is in the 2nd week of January). On a related note, Kirk Ferentz has lost 8 straight Big Ten games. So the only time I want to hear his name is when we are adding to the list of reasons why he should NOT be hired.

- You might hate ESPN, you might hate Lou Holtz, but you folks are consistently talking about his “Pep Talk” segment week in and week out. I’m still amazed by that magic trick. I have been ever since I saw some dude (a Michigan alum, no less) do it at Ben and Karen’s rehearsal dinner.

- I’m sure you heard about JoePa's (alleged) road rage. I’ve had a beef with JoePa for a few years now, but I don’t want to see his time at PSU come to an ugly end.

Optimist/Pessimist - Northwestern edition

2007-10-04T17:23:00.000-04:00

Optimist

- The schedule is still in our favor. A pseudo-scrimmage against Eastern Michigan will allow both Henne and Mallett to get playing time, and our injury issues might be cleared up by the time we play Purdue.

- Henne looked good. He made one really bad throw, missing a wide-open Arrington on the right sideline for what should have been a TD. But all things considered (knee injury, “rust,” the way he looked in the first two games), he seemed fine. Henne’s resurgence (or whatever you want to call it) will persuade DeBord to open up the playbook, and we have the talent to surprise some folks.

- The defense has made halftime adjustments when needed (which, unfortunately, is often). Oregon was over at the half, and Notre Dame is terrible, so our defensive stats from those second halves don’t matter. Against Appalachian State, we gave up two FGs after giving up four TDs in the first half. And at Northwestern, we shut them out after halftime. Both games included key second half takeaways by the defense, too.

- Sure, the team came out flat, but they had just ended what was possibly the most emotional four weeks in Michigan Football history. And it was against Northwestern.

- Brandon Graham, Shawn Crable, and the rest of the DL woke up in the second half and made a handful of outstanding individual plays. We’ve seen some of that in the past and should expect more in the future.

- We won the game. We’ve won three straight. We’re 2-0 in the Big Ten, with time to improve.

Pessimist

- We couldn’t run on Northwestern. Northwestern. Yes, the play-calling (another thing to be worried about) was horrible, but we still couldn’t execute. Adam Kraus, pre-season All Big Ten in many eyes, got abused by Northwestern’s DL. It was really bad.

- Mike DeBord has consistently run left (often to the short side) against an 8-man front on 1st down, as opposed to taking advantage of single coverage on Manningham and/or Arrington. Talking to fans who attended the Northwestern game, this was their #1 complaint (and there were many, since the issues seemed much more pronounced watching from the stands). Northwestern had the 114th-ranked pass efficiency defense, and Michigan did pretty much nothing to exploit it until they were down by 9 at halftime. That’s DeBord in a nutshell, my friends. I know I'm like the 600th person to point this out, but still.

- Mallett made a couple of impressive throws, but looked average for the most part. Again, he wasn’t helped by DeBord, who put him in some third-and-longs after running Hart into a stacked Northwestern defensive front on first and second downs. If Henne gets hurt again...

- The poor tackling continues. And as a result, the back 7 was beaten by one of the slower running backs in the conference (that wasn’t Tyrell Sutton out there) for a long TD run. And probably the one guy with the fundamentals to make consistent tackles (Brandent Englemon) was too slow to catch him. That entire play was ugly.

- For the third time in five games, the team came out flat. Actually, this seems to fit with Lloyd’s M.O. While the team often plays with passion against Ohio State, Penn State, and others, they seem to be unmotivated against weaker opponents. This is the second straight year where we looked uninspired against Northwestern.

- We lack an adequate kicker, and we have no homerun threat on kick or punt returns. Brandon Minor seems more likely to slip or run into a defender than break a return for a big gain.

Realist

The world did not end. But if this type of play-calling continues, coupled with the requisite defensive breakdowns, we will lose 2 or 3 more games. If we try to “establish the run” the entire first half against Purdue, we will lose. For the rest of the season, the play-calling needs to be great – on both sides of the ball. That means no pointless 3-man fronts and/or blitzes from a safety who is 15 yards off the line of scrimmage, Mr. English. Unfortunately, my confidence in the coaches is at an all-time low (and that's saying something). I hope they can prove me wrong.

Penn State game thoughts

2007-09-23T21:00:00.000-04:00

- Can you imagine losing to any team 9 times in a row? Our record against OSU recently is pretty bad, but 9 in a row?! Wow. And it would probably be 11 in a row if Michigan hadn’t missed two of Penn State’s worst teams in recent memory thanks to the rotating Big Ten schedule (2003 and 2004).

- Penn State played an ideal game… if you’re a Michigan fan, that is. And this ain’t the first time we’ve seen it. The PSU offensive gameplan against Michigan has continually made Mike DeBord look like Mike Leach. And I thought I was frustrated with our predictability on offense. On a related note, did you notice that we actually ran away from the “shuffling fullback” a few times against Penn State? And it worked!

- Mallett’s 3rd-and-11 completion in the 4th quarter, where he avoided a sack (or two) and made the completion to Greg Mathews, was the key play of the game, in my opinion. His pocket presence isn’t perfect, but it’s clear that he has natural instincts to make something out of nothing, which is a characteristic we haven’t seen in a long time in a Michigan QB. I like Henne, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen him make a play like that.

- While the play-calling wasn’t flawless, I was fine with it. Even though Mallett appears to have “it,” he’s still going to make mistakes. At the end of the half, he threw a bad INT the play after missing 2 open receivers in the end zone. And he almost got picked on an out route at another point. So even though we ended up in 2nd-and-long a handful of times, we also ended up in 2nd or 3rd-and-short a fair amount. And Mallett did his part then – he was surprisingly efficient on 3rd down. But overall, we did the right thing by letting Mike Hart carry us. He is unreal.

- In case you missed it, Michigan will win the Big Ten outright if they win out. Indiana and Iowa, the two teams that Michigan doesn’t face this season, both lost on Saturday. Win out and we’re in the Rose Bowl. But there’s obviously a long way to go. The schedule still sets up nicely, as we can get healthy the next two weeks before a big game against Purdue.

- So I chastise Manningham for dogging it a few weeks ago and he comes out and makes me look like the fool that I am. Against ND, he was clearly on his game, running and even celebrating hard (watch Mathews’ TD). Then this week he picks up a huge first down on a reverse that probably should have been stopped for a 3-yard loss. His effort can’t be questioned as it stands right now. Let’s hope that he can get into a deep ball groove with Mallett soon, and that it continues when Henne returns.

- Brandon Graham is really good. So good that I’m already starting to worry about him not coming back for his senior year in 2009. He could be the defensive force that we need to complete a national championship run, but I could never blame a guy for going pro.

- Jamar Adams played his best game in a Michigan uniform. His pass interference penalty on PSU’s TE Quarless, in retrospect, might have saved the game. Adams was all over the field, and almost always in the right place. It was nice to see very solid safety play for the first time in a long time.

Post-ND, Week 3 in CFB

2007-09-17T16:39:00.000-04:00

- Utah destroying UCLA was a bit of a surprise, but one that I’m happy about. I was getting a bit tired of Mark May’s UCLA love fest.

- The Big East isn’t that bad, but they still aren’t that good. I have to give them some credit, because I’m always the first to criticize them. USF’s win at Auburn 2 weeks ago doesn’t look as impressive after Auburn lost at home to Mississippi State, but a win at Auburn, at night, is always a tough task. Cincinnati looks solid, too. Their offense gets lots of hype, and Brian Kelly is “the next hot young offensive-minded coach,” but their defense is pretty good, too. Still, WVU and Rutgers haven’t really played anybody yet, and Louisville clearly isn’t that great, losing to Kentucky on Saturday (although Kentucky isn’t the Kentucky of old this year).

- Brandon Graham finally played a full game, and played well. He was credited with 3.5 of our 8 sacks, and he was all over the field. He made a great run-down/sack on Jimmy Clausen near the sideline – probably his best play, of many.

- Attention Michigan big shots: Don’t hire Kirk Ferentz. One game doesn’t make or break a coach, but Saturday’s 15-13 loss at Iowa State was a BAD loss that brought to light some disturbing info about Ferentz that I wasn't aware of: he is 3-6 against Iowa State. In a year in which you don’t play Michigan or Ohio State, and you could sneak your way into a Big Ten championship, you have to win your non-conference games, because that most likely will be the tiebreaker that separates your team from the Wolverines and Buckeyes. Apparently Ferentz didn’t learn his lesson in 2002, when the Hawkeyes lost to the Cyclones and watched OSU “Krenzel” its way to an undefeated season. Iowa State actually had a pulse back then, but this year, we’re talking about a team that lost to Kent State by 9 and Northern Iowa by 11, both at home and both at night. I understand that Iowa-ISU is a big rivalry game, but come on! This is not the type of guy we need going up against Tressel, or even Mark Dantonio... Or even Charlie Weis (zing!). I was ambivalent about Ferentz before, but after reading about that game and realizing how bad he has been against his in-state rival (who is usually mediocre, at best, and was horrible when Ferentz took over a fairly healthy Iowa program), I only want Ferentz in Ann Arbor if he’s coaching against Michigan.

- Tommy Bowden has no class.

- The over/under on USC sacks against Notre Dame should be 11. When you combine horrible pass protection, a center who is unreliable on shotgun snaps, and a general lack of “push,” you get one of the worst offensive lines I’ve ever seen. At one point in the 4th Quarter against Michigan, ND had -52 yards rushing. So how long does the Charlie Weis honeymoon last? For a guy who is supposed to be an offensive “genius,” his team has looked pathetic. For what it’s worth, ND is a 14 point underdog at home against Michigan State this weekend. Wow.

- I’m pretty sure that Lloyd is telling Bryan Wright to aim his kicks to his left from time to time, in an attempt to get them as close to the sideline as possible. This backfired against ND when his kick went out of bounds. The same thing almost happened against Oregon, but a good bounce kept the ball inside the pylon in the end zone. Speaking of Wright, he appeared to have some sort of injury, as he went into the locker room with a trainer early in the game. He later returned to the sidelines but not to the game. Some people missed that, I think.

- The PSU game is unbelievably important. If we want a shot at the Big Ten title, we have to win. And if we lose, a January 1st bowl might be out of reach. This is one of the rare September Big Ten games where the outcome will go a long way in determining the championship. If Michigan can pull out a victory, the schedule sets up nicely for the rest of the season. Henne can take his time and heal properly, and the defense can (hopefully) fix some things and gain some much-needed experience. I really wish I was going to this game. If you’ll be there, make sure to bring your “yelling voice.”

- R.I.P. Shaky Jake.

2 games, 2 losses, 2 million thoughts

2007-09-11T21:05:00.000-04:00

Here are 4 of them:

- Is Super Mario dogging it out there? Some fans seem to think so, and I can't necessarily disagree with them. I just watched the Oregon game after attending, and in person he looked like he wasn't at full speed - even moreso than on TV. On Henne's interception on our first drive, Manningham was probably interfered with. This was not visible on TV, even on the replay (although Nessler did say that Manningham's "path was blocked," or something to that effect), but from Section 9 the interference was quite clear. One ref even reached into his back pocket for a flag, 1998 Rose Bowl style. But where was Manningham's anger? I don't want our players to turn into whiners, but at least show some life out there. The universal "flag signal" that every receiver uses nowadays would have been appropriate there, but Mario just seemed like he was defeated from the beginning and didn't put up a fight. Maybe Mallett can connect with him this week and get Mario back in the game.

- wcmartin@umich.edu ... marysuec@umich.edu ... For the eighth time, Lloyd Carr is a great man. But his time is coming to an end - it has to. There is a cloud of uncertainty and negativity surrounding this program, stemming from retirement rumors, health rumors, and rumors that Carr will be fired (which even my grandma knows ain't happening). Regardless of the merit of these rumors, they are persistent and will only get worse. Michigan cannot be successful under these circumstances. Lloyd has to understand this. Lloyd has to retire at season's end, for the good of the program.

- Henne getting hurt can't be seen as a good thing now, no matter how poorly he was playing. But in hindsight (like, in 2009), this might be a good thing for Ryan Mallett. If he has to burn a redshirt, might as well have a baptism by fire instead of mop-up duty against Eastern Michigan and Minnesota.

- This is exactly the type of ND game that we lose, because we're supposed to win. For those of you who have made big bucks off of Michigan's woes in the past few weeks, here's an odd (but not surprising) stat: In the last 8 Michigan-Notre Dame games, the favorite is just 1-7 against the spread. Somebody's gotta be 0-3, it might as well be us! Let the Clausen hype continue!

Just a few quick things...

2007-09-03T20:12:00.000-04:00

More coming in the next few days, but...

1 - Mike Hart deserved better.

2 - wcmartin@umich.edu ... If you don't know whose address that is, you might want to familiarize yourself with it (and him) over the next 4 months or so. Word on the street is that he locked his inbox over the weekend. Sweet! Tedford, Stoops, Schiano, Petersen (Boise), Johnson (Navy), Rodriguez, Richt, Tenuta, Brian Kelly... Just a few of the names that Mr. Martin needs to start researching, like, now. Call me naive if you want, but I'd rather attempt to have my voice heard than sit back quietly and hope that Martin makes the right hire.

3 - Appalachian State deserved to win. Congrats to them and their fans, who many said were the loudest visiting fans at the Big House ever (for real).

4 - Could we not see this coming?

9/21/02 – 10-7 win over Utah.

9/18/04 – 24-21 win over San Diego State.

11/4/06 – 34-26 win over Ball State.

And more than a few games where we were in a dogfight with "mediocre Team X" in the 3rd Quarter, but ended up winning by 10 or so. The writing was on the wall. This wasn't a fluke, it was just a loss instead of a narrow victory.

5 - One message board poster summed up many fans’ mentality in one sentence:

“Lloyd's regime has made me dread losses rather than anticipate wins.”

6 - Here’s the text of the e-mail I sent to my Uncle Dave on Saturday. Sometimes your first reaction says it best:

Date: Sat, 1 Sep 2007 20:41:48 -0400
Subject: Horrible.

Carr will retire at the end of the year and then, and only then, will we see what this program can do. New blood is needed. DeBord is just like Carr. English has been figured out. The program is stale and predictable. We need some new life. Later...Nick.

Attention College Football Poll Voters

2007-08-20T17:22:00.000-04:00

This needs to stop. As a fan of the game who devotes hundreds of hours and thousands of dollars per year to my team and the sport as a whole, I just can’t deal with this crap anymore.

Somewhere along the way, between the 8,000 preview magazines, the talking heads on ESPN, and the trash-talkers on the message boards, something really bad happened: voters forgot how to vote. For some reason, people started questioning what their votes should be based on, or how they should rank teams in the preseason. It has come to this:

“I take a different approach to the preseason poll. It’s not a ranking of the best teams right now. Who cares about the best team in the middle of August? My preseason ballot is a projection of how I think the teams will end up in January.

(And where teams end up is a function of their schedules. For instance, Texas and West Virginia are threats to go undefeated in large part because of who they play and who they don’t play. Schedules aren’t everything in college football, but they are close to everything.)”

Those words were written here, by Associated Press college football poll voter Jon Wilmer. I have many problems with this, but I’ll focus on two major issues:

(1) Rankings are about which team is better

As a “consumer” of the Associated Press poll, I want actual rankings, not “projections.” “Who cares about the best team in the middle of August?” Me, along with millions of other fans! That’s why they have the poll! That being established, how should we rank the teams? Well, you’ve probably seen those US News Rankings for colleges, law schools, et cetera. Like college football rankings, they are subjective, but they are also based on a simple premise: The top-ranked school is better than the school ranked #2, and so on. You’ll notice that they don’t rank Vanderbilt ahead of Harvard because “Harvard has to compete with Princeton, Penn, and other Ivy League powers,” while “Vanderbilt is the class of the academically average SEC” or some garbage like that. They rank Harvard ahead of Vanderbilt because Harvard is a better school than Vanderbilt. That’s it. Likewise, they don’t project where schools will be ranked down the road; they rank the best schools, in order, based on the data available at that time. It’s a pretty simple concept.

As one commenter put it:

“If you believe that this is the FINAL order at the end of the season, why should you be allowed to vote all season long? Voting in this manner at the beginning of the season (what you think will be the order at the END of the season), makes about as much sense as keeping it that way ALL season… Your vote will be suspect all season long now because you have exposed your prejudices….”

Word. And you know it’s bad when Wolverines and Buckeyes are agreeing:

The AP Top 25 is supposed to be a ranking of the best 25 teams in Division I-A in order of 1-25. This means you’re saying there are 25 teams in the country that are better than Ohio State? The fact that the AP allows you to vote in this poll destroys its credibility.”

Now, I don’t mind if someone really believe that Team X isn’t a top 25 team (even if Team X happens to be a traditional power). But check out Wilmer’s rationale for omitting OSU:

“Because I think the Buckeyes will finish with a handful of losses, they are not in my preseason top-25. Again, they might be one of the 25 best teams right now, but I don’t think they’ll deserve to be ranked in January, and that’s what I’m interested in here.”

I’m glad that that’s what you’re “interested in here,” Jon. But that’s not what these rankings are for. The rankings are about who is better than who, whether it be on August 17th, October 7th, or January 9th. So if you think the Buckeyes are a top 25 team now, take a minute and figure out where you would rank them instead of saying “forget it, they’re gonna end the season on a losing streak anyway.”

And it’s a bit unsettling that Jon thinks the Buckeyes won’t “deserve to be ranked in January” based on possible losses to Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan. I fear that Jon falls into the category of voters who seem to think that it doesn’t matter which team is better, all that matters is who lost more recently (and junk like that). In fact, Jon basically admits to a related notion when he states, “Schedules aren’t everything in college football, but they are close to everything.” No, Jon, you’ve got it wrong. Your job is to cut through the B.S., compare the teams (based on their schedules and results, yes), and tell us which teams you think are better than others. You should not have the wool pulled over your eyes by an average team with a weak schedule. You’re supposed to be smarter than that.

I understand that teams generally should fall in the polls if they lose, but people need to understand and accept this: A five-loss team Ohio State team can be better than a one-loss TCU team. Rank the teams based on which team you honestly think is better. All other factors are irrelevant.

(2) Perception becomes reality

Why does one measly ballot in a preseason poll matter so much in the grand scheme of things? Well, in my opinion (and I think there’s a fair amount of truth to this), these polls become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you see something enough, or state something repeatedly, it magically becomes true. See, Mr. Wilmer might think that he’s doing no harm with his rankings. In fact, he might drop West Virginia from #3 to #8, or Texas from #2 to #10 after the first week of games (assuming he follows through on his promise to start voting based on the quality of teams, not the ease of schedules). But the damage has already been done. Mr. Wilmer is contributing to the perception that these teams with weak schedules actually are deserving of high rankings. When Team X is ranked between 3rd and 6th in every preseason poll simply because they have an easy road to a BCS game, the general public (and the average voter?) starts to believe that Team X is a Top 5 team. And why wouldn’t they? The polls say they are, so they must be, right? It’s your basic Psych 111 experiment, minus all of the sorority girls. Mr. Wilmer might believe that Florida would definitely beat West Virginia, or that LSU would handle Texas, but he’s telling the public, including his ballot-holding colleagues, a different story. Sure, he explains his “logic” on the website I linked, but how many people actually read that? All that Joe Fan sees is “West Virginia, #3,” and that’s that.

And while many of the premises and conclusions of this recent ESPN analysis are inherently flawed (like the fact that they completely ignore that “power programs” are more likely to be “overrated” since they have nowhere to go in the polls but down), the bottom line is that if you start out ranked high, you have a much better chance to win the national championship:

“Evidence A: Since 1991, college football's national championship has come from outside the top 10 of the preseason Associated Press top 25 poll only four times -- Michigan was 14th in 1997, Oklahoma was 19th in 2000, Ohio State was 13th in 2002 and LSU was 14th in 2003.

Evidence B: During the last 20 seasons, 13 teams have lost a game and still managed to finish the regular season ranked in the top two in the BCS standings or either poll of record. But only one of those teams -- LSU in 2003 -- was ranked lower than eighth in the preseason poll.

So if your favorite team is beginning the 2007 season outside the top 10 in the AP or ESPN/USA Today coaches' polls, you'd better hope for an undefeated season. Otherwise, your team has a very small chance of winning the national championship.”

The fact that Mr. Wilmer decides to “take a different approach” to his ballot is unbelievably frustrating. He’s like the kid who ruins gym class for everybody else because he’s too selfish and aloof to play by the rules. His actions have an impact on many other people, but he’s too obtuse to recognize it, Shawshank style. Now, I understand that it’s not the end of the world here, but when you’re an AP voter you’re supposed to rank the teams, not try to see the future in your crystal ball. It’s a responsibility, and it’s one that Jon Wilmer apparently doesn’t take too seriously.

Conclusion

“If you have a beef with my ballot, fine … bring it on. Just come with facts and logic.”

OK, Jon, here you go... You stated:

“Once the games begin, my ballot will reflect up-to-date performance. But there’s nothing substantive for the preseason poll, so I turn mine into an end-of-year projection.”

I love it, Jon. You tell us that there is no substantive information available to make a preseason ranking, then you go on to make projections based on… you guessed it, substantive information!! “Substantive,” as in “real or actual” information. Stuff like returning starters, coaching changes, experienced QBs, and whatnot. Some examples:

“#3 WVU: Arguably the best QB/TB combo in the country in Pat White/Steve Slaton.

#6 Michigan: Defense won’t be what it was in ‘06, but it doesn’t have to be with Chad Henne, Mike Hart and Mario Manningham.

#10 Penn State: Bevy of returning starters, veteran QB (Anthony Morelli).

#12 Florida State: With Jimbo Fisher taking over the playcalling duties from the overmatched Jeff Bowden, the Noles should finally play to their potential.

#17 UCLA: With 20 returning starters, Coach Karl Dorrell had better get it done, or he might be done.

#23 Southern Miss: My sleeper pick, the Golden Eagles return 16 starters from a nine-win team.

#25 Purdue: Looking for a BCS sleeper? The Boilermakers have 20 returning starters.”

So Jon, if there’s no “substantive” information on which to base your rankings, then why even submit a preseason ballot at all? Just because you haven’t seen a game this year doesn’t mean you don’t have some idea of what to expect from players like Chad Henne and Steve Slaton, or coaches like Jimbo Fisher. You seem to love this “returning starters” statistic, yet you think that’s not “substantive?” If Michigan returned zero starters, would you really have them ranked so highly? I think you get my point. Or maybe you don’t.

It seems like Jon is trying to run before he learns to walk. He’s telling us that he doesn’t have enough information to rank teams in August, but that he has enough information to predict where they will finish the season in January?! You can’t have it both ways, Jon. I think you missed a few steps there.

And this is a man that is determining national championships, folks.

All of you voters out there need to start using your heads. You don’t rank teams based on where you think they will finish, who has the easier (or tougher) schedule, or who has the prettiest cheerleaders. “Which team is better?” That’s all you’ve gotta ask yourself. And please take some time to figure it out. It is part of your job, in case you forgot.

Hopes, Expectations, and Things I Wanna See (Part 2)

2007-08-13T18:21:00.000-04:00

- I hope we get the kicking game resolved ASAP. Things seemed shaky at the spring “game,” but Lloyd recently said that Bryan Wright has been reaching the end zone on kickoffs. That would be nice, especially considering the new rules (kickoffs from the 30 on the short tee, not the 35). The offensive talent of 2003 was hindered by a poor punting game. Let’s hope this year’s crew isn’t brought down by a poor kicking game.

- I expect Chad Henne to rip it up. Michigan QBs are generally at their best during their senior season (duh), and Chad knows that he’s playing not only for championships, but for NFL Draft position. Considering the talent at WR and the imminent return of TE Carson Butler, Chad will have no shortage of targets.

- I wanna see more big plays from the defense. Sure, we had a great defense (at times) last season, but there weren’t many huge plays. In non-garbage time (sorry, LaMarr Woodley and Max Pollock(!)), I believe we only had one defensive touchdown: Burgess’ pick-six to open the Notre Dame game. These are things that highly-talented defenses like USC and OSU seem to come by more often than us (or maybe that's just my perception?), and we might need a few plays like these to win a close game or two. Plus, these are plays that can give a big confidence boost to a fairly young defense. Easier said than done, I know.

- I hope we can adequately replace two unheralded Special Teams players: Gunner Darnell Hood and Long Snapper Turner Booth. People always say you never hear about the Long Snapper unless there’s a bad snap, and that’s probably why we never heard anything about Turner Booth (except when he recovered a fumble). Darnell Hood was very solid as one of the Gunners – making many quick tackles and rarely overrunning a play or getting called for a penalty. I think we can replace his speed, but can we find somebody as disciplined?

- I expect a fumbled snap. Maybe I'm just trying to "reverse jinx" it, but with a new Center (Justin Boren), and whispers of more shotgun formations, I think we're gonna see a snap or two hit the ground this year.

- I wanna see more realistic play action. I’m no football coach, but I watch a lot of college football, and it’s clear that many players can’t help but bite on hard fakes. And I’m not talking about Henne hiding the ball behind his back or anything crazy – just a more believable fake handoff would do it. But more often than not, it looks like our players are just going through the motions without actually selling the handoff. The other side of the “players will bite on a hard fake” coin is that today’s players are smart enough not to bite on a weak fake. Considering Henne and Hart have been working together for 3 seasons, you would think that great play action would be easy to pull off.

The Big East: Overrated or Excluded?

2007-08-06T16:40:00.000-04:00

Looking at what the Big East did last year, and what they might do this year, I’m a bit torn as to how I feel about the conference’s place in the college football world. As this research shows, the Big East has never been that good. But where do they stand now? Let’s begin…

Argument #1: The Big East is Overrated

The Big East as we know it today is only 2 years old. After the defections of Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College to the ACC, many college football fans (including myself, to an extent) predicted doom for the 8-team Big East. West Virginia’s 11-1 season in 2005 helped allay that scenario, capped by a Sugar Bowl win over Georgia. In 2006, the Big East’s “big three” had a handful of memorable games, many of which received nation-wide Thursday night exposure on ESPN. Rutgers was the feel-good story of the year, and the Big East received more positive publicity than it had in years. Many people claimed that the Big East was “back.” But more analysis is warranted.

Fact: The Big East went 5-0 in bowl games last year.

In case you didn’t know that, now you do. And you’re going to hear it all year when the ESPN crew talks up West Virginia, Louisville, and Rutgers, and tries to convince us that South Florida is the next Florida State. How about… no? Mark May will likely be the worst offender. [We get it, Mark – you went to Pitt. I’d rather have him say “I love the Big East” every five minutes than try to argue that Pitt-WVU is the best rivalry, or that WVU-Louisville is the game of the year. He’s doing a great job replacing Trev Alberts.]

Opinion: The Big East beat approximately nobody in bowl games last year. Here’s the breakdown:

Louisville (Orange Bowl) – Beat Wake Forest, 24-13

A BCS bowl win, but… Wake?!

West Virginia (Gator Bowl) – Beat Georgia Tech, 38-35

WVU struggled with a Georgia Tech team that had a joker for a QB (Reggie Ball), but admittedly a great WR (Calvin Johnson). The Mountaineers gave up 35 points and were down by 18 before GT choked. If WVU loses this game, which they probably should have, are we even talking about them as the 6th-best team in the country? Maybe we are, just due to lack of viable options. But that’s kinda beside the point. The point is that the Big East played a weak bowl schedule. Continuing…

Rutgers (Texas Bowl) - Beat Kansas State, 37-10

This was a Kansas State team that lost to Baylor and Kansas, and finished the season 7-6. KSU had a winning record thanks to a 24-23 home victory over Illinois State. Whoa. So, yeah, KSU stunk last year. No Ell Roberson or Darren Sproles to be found on that team.

South Florida (PapaJohns.com Bowl) – Beat East Carolina, 24-7

East Carolina?!

Cincinnati (International Bowl) – Beat Western Michigan, 27-24

I hate to be redundant, but… Western Michigan?! Cincinnati almost pulled a reverse-WVU, after leading 24-0 in the 2nd Quarter and allowing 24 straight points.

Now, I don’t have the time or energy to go into a full bowl breakdown from last year, but let me list the Big Ten’s and SEC’s bowl opponents, and see how they compare to the Big East’s:

Big Ten bowl opponents

Florida
USC
Arkansas
Tennessee
Texas
Maryland
Texas Tech

SEC bowl opponents

Ohio State
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Penn State
Nebraska
Virginia Tech
Oklahoma State
Clemson
Houston

The top two-thirds of the Big Ten and SEC bowl schedules look like a who’s who of college football’s elite. Florida, Ohio State, USC, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Texas, and Virginia Tech were all ranked in the Top 10 last year, some of them for the entire year. Meanwhile, three-fifths of the Big East’s bowl opponents were never ranked in the Top 25 at any point in the 2006 season. None of the five were ranked in the Top 10 at any point.

On a related note, I think that if you look at the bowl match-ups and results from any year, you will find that (1) the Big Ten and SEC play the hardest slates, year-in and year-out, and (2) the Big East, to put it nicely, doesn’t. The other BCS conferences fall somewhere in the middle. I find it unbelievable how so many people are quick to credit the Big East for a 5-0 bowl record while bashing the Big Ten for a losing bowl record. It’s the opponents, idiots!

So can we just stop with the Big East bowl record love? It’s meaningless. The Big East had what some called a "breakout" year last year, but a lot of it was accomplished with smoke and mirrors (and the exact same thing might happen this year, it appears (see below)). A Louisville win over the worst Miami team in decades, some exciting Thursday night games, Rutgers’ first ever bowl win, intriguing late-season games thanks to smart scheduling (having the best teams play each other later), and a 5-0 bowl record thanks to possibly the worst bowl schedule for any BCS conference, ever… That’s just not enough for me. As it stands right now, the Big East is like the kid who "earned" high school valedictorian honors by acing remedial math, shop, gym, and that class where everybody gets an "A" (each school has one). Until more real progress is shown on the football field, I’m not buying the hype.

Argument #2: The Big East is Excluded

But progress is the problem, and that’s why I can’t hate the Big East too much. See, now comes the part where Big East fans complain that progress cannot be made since “name” programs from big conferences keep shying away from non-conference games against the “rising” programs in the Big East. This is a legitimate argument, and one that is directly related to the weak bowl slate. Because the Big East is seen as inferior in the eyes of many, they don’t get the big-time bowl games (PapaJohns.com Bowl?), and as a result they don’t play a strong bowl schedule.

You have to think that as college football becomes more popular, and the Big East continues to increase its exposure (thanks to those weeknight games on ESPN?), some intriguing non-conference games will get scheduled and the Big East bowl schedule will, eventually, improve.

Fans of major programs would actually like to see a top Big East team on their schedule, which wasn’t the case just a few years ago. In fact, WVU has already set up home-and-homes with Auburn, Colorado, Michigan State, and Florida State. Louisville will soon be playing Georgia Tech, Oregon State, and Georgia. And Rutgers will start a long-term series against Notre Dame in 2010. Even Michigan fans like myself are hearing rumors of games against Rutgers (at the Meadowlands?) and/or Louisville, both of which would be great for Big East scheduling and college football in general.

While I’m sure they don’t need or care about it, my advice to Big East fans would be to have patience. Right now, you are feeling the effects of poor scheduling practices and the ACC raid, both of which have left you with some unbelievably weak non-conference games (see below). And people like me are calling it like they see it: not pretty. But the national respect that you desire can be earned in the next few years. It just won't come from winning ESPN’s Bowl Challenge Cup by playing a bunch of scrubs.

Looking ahead to 2007

Enough about 2006. The 2007 season is just around the corner, and WVU seems to be the consensus pick to win the Big East. The Mountaineers are getting lots of national acclaim, with some even predicting a BCS Championship Game run. Let’s look at WVU’s schedule for the upcoming season:

Sat Sep 1 Western Michigan
Sat Sep 8 @ Marshall
Thu Sep 13 @ Maryland
Sat Sep 22 East Carolina
Fri Sep 28 @ South Florida
Sat Oct 6 @ Syracuse
Sat Oct 20 Mississippi State
Sat Oct 27 @ Rutgers
Thu Nov 8 Louisville
Sat Nov 17 @ Cincinnati
Sat Nov 24 Connecticut
Sat Dec 1 Pitt

So… they should win every game, right? The game against Louisville will be a challenge, but when you’re trying to decide if your toughest road game is against Maryland, South Florida, or Rutgers, you’ve probably got a pretty easy schedule. If that was Michigan’s schedule, I’d be booking a trip to New Orleans right now. Heck, if Oklahoma, Tennessee, Cal, or any other “good but probably not great” team in this pre-season’s rankings had that schedule, they’d be booking flights, too.

Listen, I’m not saying that WVU is terrible. They’re a good team with an explosive offense (especially rushing) and an extremely suspect defense. They can play with anybody, but they can also lose to an average team (like they did last year against South Florida… at home). I mean, are they really strong enough to warrant a pre-season #2 ranking? This is one of the reasons I get annoyed with pre-season rankings. Do people think WVU is that good, or are they just looking at their schedule and saying “there’s no way they’re gonna lose!” I think that it’s mostly the latter. For the record, I’d rank the Mountaineers somewhere between 10 and 12 in my pre-season poll. They're a good team, and if they went undefeated and were very impressive in doing so, I wouldn’t necessarily be against them getting a BCS Title shot (although I might be). But as I said above about the entire Big East, I’m just not buying the hype right now.

Before I get too sidetracked, I should mention that WVU isn’t the only team with a weak schedule this season. Look at what the rest of the Big East’s big three has in store for the non-conference:

Louisville:

Murray State
Middle Tennessee
@ Kentucky
@ NC State
Utah

Rutgers:

Buffalo
Navy
Norfolk State
Maryland
@ Army

Wow. Now, before Big East fans get upset, I should state that South Florida plays at Auburn, Pitt plays Michigan State and UVA, and Syracuse plays at Iowa. But still… come on! If Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State played the non-conference schedules that WVU, Louisville, and Rutgers play this season, they would get trashed. Absolutely trashed. But for some reason, this has slid under the radar this season with the big three Big East teams. Apparently we're supposed to look forward to WVU-Louisville while glossing over the fact that they took a page out of Bill Snyder's (scheduling) playbook?

Conclusion

The Big East is both overrated and excluded – for now. In the next few years, their best programs will get to prove themselves against some serious players from the power conferences. Then, and only then, will we have a reliable barometer of how good the Big East really is. Until then, we’ll have to debate how teams like WVU would fare against the schedules that schools like USC and Ohio State face.

P.S. For the frequent visitors out there, yes, I have been over this before. But if the Big East is going to be force-fed to me by the powers that be at ESPN and the like, I’m going to keep bringing this up. Thanks for reading.

Hopes, Expectations, and Things I Wanna See (Part 1)

2007-07-05T10:43:00.000-04:00

- I hope that LB Obi Ezeh is all that he’s hyped up to be. For a guy who looked like an average Running Back at times in High School (against mediocre competition, for the most part), Ezeh sure is getting a lot of praise this spring/summer. Maybe the position switch really made a difference? I hope he’s “the next David Harris,” but I won’t hold my breath. As long as he’s not the next Grady Brooks, I’ll take it.

- I expect to see more 4-2-5 Defense this season. As has been discussed, Junior Brandon Harrison and True Freshman Michael Williams would fit the mold of the Nickel Back, or “Weak Safety.” For those unfamiliar with the 4-2-5, one of the goals of this Defense is to confuse the Quarterback by giving the impression of 8-9 men “in the box” when pass coverage is actually the call. So against a Spread Offense team like Oregon, this could be a commonly-used Defense. Whether it will be effective is another story.

- I wanna see the coaches properly adjust to the “new” clock rules. After doing away with the goofy clock rules from last year, we are back to normal, and it is estimated that over the course of a season, we will get enough additional plays to make up an entire game (compared to last year, that is). So while I’m sure that Lloyd loved the “fast” games last year, the coaches will have to be prepared for more potential comebacks this season. Brian’s on-point post regarding Time of Possession vs. Points Per Possession has been brought up a few times in recent months, and is worth re-reading (or reading, if you missed it last fall). There is a time for “protecting” a lead, but I don’t think it occurs as often as our coaches seem to think it does.

- I hope we don’t see too much of Mike Hart. Related to the point directly above, we have our best QB/WR group since 1999. Being up 28-10 at halftime would make me feel better than being up 14-3. Especially with a fairly young Defense that might give up some big/broken plays. Don’t get me wrong, I love Hart. But he’s not a game-breaker. Our Offense will score points via Henne and the WRs. Hart’s running is key to helping them get open, but 30 carries a game for Hart isn’t going to be the recipe for success. Additionally, if/when we take a large lead, I want Hart out of the game. We can argue about whether he’s “injury-prone,” but the bottom line is that our Offense is immeasurably worse when he is hurt. Hart's value to the team won't be measured by the amount yards he compiles or the number of TDs he scores, but rather by his presence in the backfield (at full strength).

- I expect our Defensive Line to be really good. DT Will Johnson is not Alan Branch, but according to weight room buzz, he’s the strongest Michigan player… ever. Seriously. He was under the radar last year, but had a few impressive highlights in limited action, even against quality opponents. DE Tim Jamison should be healthy, finally, and has one of the quickest first steps I’ve ever seen at Michigan – one of those “he was offside but they didn’t call it” things. If he can be as effective as LaMarr Woodley was on run support (which was adequate, but not great), then we might not notice a drop-off. Brandon Graham at Defensive End might be a good compromise for a guy that floated between LB and DT in his first year in the program. He has much more talent than Rondell Biggs, but needs the experience. I’m hoping that by the end of the season, he will consistently show that he was deserving of his 5-star rating in High School. Last but not least, DT Terrance Taylor will have another year of experience under his belt. The Defensive Line has to be the least of our concerns on Defense.

- I wanna see Lloyd smiling in New Orleans on January 8th, 2008. I’m often critical of Carr, but there’s nothing better than seeing him on the sidelines with that big grin on his face as the clock winds down on a huge victory. I’ve thought that it might be done, and that it won’t be done. Realistically, it can be done. The only people who can stop Michigan from running the table are the players and coaches themselves. And USC.

Random stuff you might know / should know / forgot about

2007-06-29T09:27:00.000-04:00

- If you can make it in Flint (or out of Flint), you can make it anywhere! WJRT Channel 12 alum Rece Davis will host College Football Live on ESPN, a weekdaily (new word?!) 30-minute college counterpart to NFL Live, and it starts airing in less than a month - sweet! Details as follows:

"Looking to capitalize on college football's growing popularity, ESPN plans to launch this summer a weekday series, College Football Live. The 30-minute show will kick off July 23 and run through bowl season in January, says David Berson, ESPN senior vice president of programming.

Modeled after the network's daily NFL Live, the new show will be hosted mostly by Rece Davis and feature breaking news, features and analysis. Davis will be joined by a rotating mix of ESPN's college football talent, including Lee Corso and Kirk Herbstreit from College GameDay, Lou Holtz, Mark May, Bob Griese, Doug Flutie, Todd Blackledge, Craig James and Ed Cunningham.

The show will come on at 3:30 p.m. ET Monday-Friday on ESPN. When Monday Night Football starts, the Monday edition will shift to 2 p.m. on ESPN2. To make room for the new show, the first half of ESPN's afternoon programming block, including Outside the Lines First Report, 1st and 10 and Best of Mike and Mike, will start 30 minutes earlier."

- Did you know?... “On September 2, 2006, Mobile ESPN streamed the first live sporting event ever delivered to a mobile phone in the United States. Fans watched live coverage from Ann Arbor as Michigan defeated Vanderbilt, 27-7.” We’re in the history books, baby!

- This was discussed over the past few months, but here are the “officially official” rule changes for next year, and the “logic” behind them. In short, we’re going back to normal – no more weird clock rules. Also, we’re going to have to deal with this in 2008, so store it somewhere in the back of your brain:

“[S]tarting in 2008 the committee approved a 40-second/25-second play clock combination. The committee, reviewing strong support for a 40-second/25-second play from coaches, officials and administrators, approved this move to achieve a more uniform pace of play.”

Based on some limited Google searching and common sense, it seems as if the play clock will start at 40 seconds at the conclusion of a play, as opposed to starting at 25 seconds after the Referee marks the ball “ready for play.” Unless I’m missing other details, this play clock (not the game clock) will be identical to how the NFL play clock works. A key question, though, will be whether the “game clock stops upon earning a 1st Down” rule will remain in effect. Nothing has been mentioned regarding that. I guess the two clocks (play and game) are separate issues, but this might create the type of confusion and inconsistency that the NCAA is allegedly trying to avoid, where the play clock is continually running but the game clock is still subject to the Referee marking the ball ready for play.

- All-American, 1997 National Champion, and generally awesome (former) Defensive End Glen Steele is on the Michigan coaching staff this year as a Defensive Graduate Assistant (“after working in the weight room last year”). And ladies… he’s single!!

No Sparties Allowed in the 15th Congressional District

2007-06-26T08:58:00.000-04:00

You know it's the middle of the summer when there are 17 Michigan bloggers all posting about a cable TV channel. Representative John Dingell apparently doesn't want to be left out. And at first glance, I thought he kinda snubbed MSU in this passage:

"I have been approached by numerous constituents, all of whom share the same complaint," Dingell says in the letter. "They are concerned about the local availability of University of Michigan football games since none of the Michigan cable systems carry the Big Ten Network (BTN). While I understand the motivation on the part of the Big Ten Conference and its member schools to create a new all-Big Ten cable channel, I am increasingly concerned about the migration of previously free, over the air content to a pay television tier."

But, really, the 15th District is Wolverine country, so props to Dingell (can you say his name without chuckling?) for representing his constituents. This whole fiasco is better than a soap opera, but just as pointless. 2 more months...

BTN: Good news, bad news

2007-06-18T09:56:00.000-04:00

This New York Times article is even more mainstream corroboration that the battle between the Big Ten Network and Comcast (along with other cable operators) is ON. As I began to read the article this morning, my heart started to sink, as I envisioned the money-grubbing CEOs depriving me of my inalienable right to watch Michigan Football. But then I saw this:

As for carrying the network in non-Big Ten markets at 10 cents a subscriber, [a Comcast executive] said Comcast would most likely make it available as a subscription service like Major League Baseball’s Extra Innings out-of-market package.

“They have a right to do as they wish,” [Big Ten Network President Mark] Silverman said.

Sounds fair to me. In fact, if the Big Ten Network is a virtual Pay-Per-View package (like ESPN GamePlan), I couldn't really complain. A la carte television is ideal for me. Let me purchase access to the channels I want, and then I won't have to pay for channels like SOAPnet (nevermind, they show re-runs of The O.C.). But you get the point.

So now the bad news... Despite that glimmer of light, Comcast is throwing down the proverbial gauntlet. In past articles, Comcast execs have tip-toed around the subject of adding the BTN. Mostly a bunch of "no comment" stuff. Now, they're saying things like "I have no doubt that the Big Ten will try to rile up their fans and alumni to say that big bad Comcast is denying their content to Big Ten fans and alumni." So, umm, that doesn't sound like they're expecting warm and fuzzy negotiations. Moreover, the Comcast crew pushes it back in the BTN's face, saying the Big Ten is "going against the consuming public."

As usual, this isn't going to be pretty. For a non-Midwesterner like me, that "non-Big Ten market" tidbit is a sign of hope. But there is still a long way to go, for all Big Ten fans.

1988 Hall of Fame Bowl: Michigan vs. Alabama

2007-06-03T15:02:00.000-04:00

When most younger fans hear the words “Michigan” and “Alabama” together in the same sentence, they probably recall the classic 35-34 Overtime victory by the Wolverines over the Crimson Tide in the 2000 Orange Bowl, also known as Tom Brady’s last (and best?) game. However, 12 years earlier, two of college football’s greatest programs played for the first time, in what was arguably a better game (because, seriously, winning on a missed extra point is kind of weird (don’t get me wrong, I’ll take the “W”)).

On January 2nd, 1988, Michigan played Alabama in the 2nd Hall of Fame Bowl (now known as the Outback Bowl) in Tampa, Florida. The game was broadcast on NBC, with Bob Costas, Ahmad Rashad, and Paul Maguire as the announcers. [That’s not a joke – those three actually called the game together, and people lived to tell about it.]

Both teams entered the game unranked, with Michigan’s 1987 season being a bit of a transition year (thanks primarily to the graduation of QB Jim Harbaugh). The Wolverines finished 4th in the Big Ten (5-3 record), opening the regular season with a 26-7 loss to Notre Dame and ending it with a 23-20 loss to Ohio State, both at Michigan Stadium. Losses at Michigan State and Indiana (not your usual Indiana team - they were ranked 15th) made up the 4 losses for the season. Before continuing with the Hall of Fame Bowl recap, you might want to refresh your memory by looking at the Alphabetical or Numerical rosters from that season. There are some pretty classic names on there.

Michigan coach Bo Schembechler missed the Hall of Fame Bowl while recuperating from his second open-heart (bypass) surgery. Defensive Coordinator (and future Head Coach) Gary Moeller stepped in to coach the Wolverines while Bo watched the game on TV back in Michigan. Things seemed to be going swimmingly, as Michigan jumped out to a 21-3 lead behind three Jamie Morris TD runs. Maybe the most memorable of Morris’ runs came on a 3rd and long at the Bama 14-yard line, with less than a minute left in the 1st Half. Michigan called its patented Sprint Draw, and Morris made it through the first level of defenders. Between him and the endzone stood Alabama Safety Mike Smith, in great position to make the tackle. Morris just ran him over. Granted, when you watch the highlights (see below), you’ll notice the defender’s horrible positioning – he’s leaning back and putting his head down?? But seeing it in real time, it looked like the baddest thing ever.

With Michigan up 18 in the 3rd Quarter after Morris’ 77-yard TD run (his speed was way underrated), all was right with the world. But Bama had a back of their own. In the 2nd Half, the Tide’s Bobby Humphrey scored 2 TDs, including the one that gave Alabama a 24-21 lead with less than 5 minutes left. Humphrey finished with 149 yards on 27 carries.

So that set the table for what is, in my opinion, one of the most underrated Michigan Football moments. After getting the ball back and driving to the Alabama 20-yard line, Michigan stalled out and faced a 4th-and-3 with approximately one minute left. With QB Demetrius Brown having a shaky day (and that’s being kind), many Michigan fans were expecting Moeller to put the game in the hands of Jamie Morris, who had racked up 234 yards on 23 carries. That’s what Bo would have called for, right? Instead, Brown dropped back and sent a pass to the far left sideline in the end zone, where he connected with John Kolesar for a touchdown. Michigan took the lead, 28-24, and Alabama’s attempt at a miraculous comeback was ended when Michigan DB David Arnold intercepted a pass and ran out the clock.

Michigan finished the season ranked #19 in the AP Poll. Not a great season, but beating a big time program in the last minute, seeing Morris run wild, and (most importantly) keeping Bo happy and healthy all make this game a memorable one.

The Video Highlights

Michigan’s video highlights from the 1988 Hall of Fame Bowl, compiled by YouTube Michigan legend dynoguy88.

Other Notes:

- QB Demetrius Brown didn’t start the game. He replaced Michael Taylor, but didn’t fare much better. The QBs rotated throughout the game, but Brown took over in the 2nd Half. On the day, Michigan QBs completed only 6 of 17 passes. Taylor and Brown would continue to play musical chairs in the 1988 season, after which Brown graduated and Elvis Grbac came in to compete with Taylor in 1989.

- Alabama was coached by current ESPN College Football analyst Bill Curry.

- Michigan and Alabama met again in the 1997 Outback Bowl, a 17-14 Alabama victory highlighted by a 4th Quarter 88-yard interception return for a touchdown by Alabama’s Dwayne Rudd.

- Michigan and Alabama met for the 3rd and (currently) final time in the 2000 Orange Bowl, a 35-34 Michigan Overtime victory, highlighted by David Terrell’s MVP performance and Michigan’s 2nd Half comeback. Video highlights here.

- Official game recap from the Outback Bowl site.

I already hate the Big Ten Network

2007-05-09T13:21:00.000-04:00

I came across some disturbing words from the President of the Big Ten Network, Mark Silverman. He was interviewed by Iowa’s Scout.com website, and he mentioned an example regarding the television coverage of an Iowa game that is (hypothetically) scheduled to be on the Big Ten Network (BTN). Since I’ll use this example throughout the remainder of this post, please read it first, and then see if you agree with my explanation (which could be mistaken, since the quote is a bit confusing, no?):

“As we go forward, every game played in [a Big Ten team’s home stadium] will be owned if you will by ESPN/ABC or the BTN. If that game is aired as a part of the BTN, what I am pledging we will do, is that we will have one BTN game of the week. In addition to those games, we will have a regionalization. Where we can put the Iowa game on in Iowa. If you are not in Iowa, and the game of the week is say, Ohio State-Northwestern, and that is on the BTN, what we are offering to Direct TV, Comcast, Time Warner, Mediacom and everyone, are all of these games. So the BTN primary feed will be the game of the week, but in addition to that, we are making these games available as a part of carrying the network. So the cable provider or satellite operator will have the chance to air all of the games. So there will be a crawl on the main game, saying if you want to view another game, go to this channel.” (emphasis mine)

Umm… OK? So, if OSU-NU is the BTN “game of the week,” that is going to be on the Big Ten Network’s “primary feed” (the BTN channel itself). But if a game like, say, Indiana at Iowa is also being televised by the Big Ten Network at the same time, fans in Iowa (and Indiana, I’m assuming) will also get that game on another, separate channel (or maybe vice versa, the wording is weird). Anyway, fans will get a “crawl” on the bottom of the screen on the BTN, which is just a fancy way of saying that there will be text telling them “Tune to channel X for Indiana at Iowa (or OSU-NU, or whatever)” Thoughts:

- Silverman just confirmed what I had feared. Since the Big Ten Network will have one game of the week, it is my belief that many other games “owned” by the BTN and airing at the same time as the game of the week will be unavailable to fans who happen to live “out of state” or “out of area.” In the example above, Iowa and Indiana fans living in those states will get to see both OSU-NU and Indiana-Iowa. Cool. But outside of those areas? I predict that those folks will only get the game of the week (OSU-NU). As it is restated in a different article, “Silverman said the Big Ten Network will produce a nightly wrap-up show, have the ability to televise multiple games in one time slot and feature school-produced programming” (emphasis mine). The key word here is “ability.” Yes, the BTN will be able to televise many games at once, primarily because they will have lots of cameras and satellites and fancy things like that. But ability isn’t going to cut it, and here’s why: I don’t think that the BTN is going to convince Comcast, for example, to air Indiana-Iowa on a separate channel in its lineup in NYC, Atlanta, LA, or really anywhere else outside of Indiana and Iowa. How is that going to work, logistically? Does the BTN really think Comcast is eager to add an “open” channel that will be used once a week on Saturday afternoons (they might be that delusional, seeing that they want 57% more per subscriber than the NFL gets!)? Is the Big Ten Network going to make deals with cable/satellite companies to preempt programming on already-existing channels (public access, local TV channels, etc.)? I guess it’s possible, but why would a cable/satellite operator outside of the Midwest want to deal with that headache (the administrative costs involved, the angry calls from fans when they mess up, etc.)? I don’t think it’s going to happen.

That’s why I think out of area fans are screwed. The “smaller” programs are going to be hurt the most because the “bigger” programs will likely have a stranglehold on game of the week designations. And the BTN will shrug off any complaints from out of area fans by saying “your cable or satellite provider has the chance (or had the chance) to air all of the games. They chose not to for reasons beyond our control. Don’t blame us, talk to them.”

- This is why the old ESPN GamePlan setup was arguably preferable to the new Big Ten Network setup. In the past, you could see every Big Ten game if you had GamePlan. But now, “regionalized” games on the Big Ten Network will NOT be available on GamePlan (no Big Ten "home" games will. I repeat – No games with a Big Ten "home" team will be on GamePlan, and maybe no Big Ten "road" games, either (“The Gameplan package as you mentioned will no longer have [Big Ten] games,” per Silverman)). In my opinion, this new system could end up being a major disappoinment. Generally, I don’t care much about Wisconsin-Illinois. But if Illinois is down 4 with 2 minutes left, and driving for a game-winning TD, I would like to be able to see that. Now, there will be times when I won’t be able to. Either that, or the Big Ten Network’s primary feed will switch away from its game of the week to show the ending of an exciting game, something that is sure to annoy people one way or another (especially the fans of teams playing in said game of the week). I haven’t even mentioned that while the Big Ten is hyping its HD capabilities, regionalized games (like Indiana-Iowa above) will often not be shown in HD because the game of the week will be occupying the HD channel while the regionalized games will be relegated to standard def. Some people are going to be disappointed.

- A minor (and obvious) nitpick, but the crawl text will be annoying. Just like on ESPN GamePlan when the final quarter of a Michigan game was frequently blessed with “San Diego State at UNLV will be joined on this channel immediately following the conclusion of this game….” It will only affect some viewers and some games, I guess, but it won't just be scrolling in the 4th Quarter - it will be there the whole game (see below for timeslot info).

Other BTN things of note

“The first three weeks [of games] are selected during the summer, then they are done in a six to twelve day advance window.”

“I think most of the games on our network will be the [noon eastern] games. The three primary windows for football games are [noon, 3:30 and 8:00 pm eastern]. Our windows are typically the early window. ABC more often than not will have that [3:30] window, exclusive to them. Then the prime time games, those will be on mostly every week on either ABC/ESPN or BTN. All three could have games going on the same time in that first window.”

These “timeslots” or “windows” or whatever you want to call them are the key. If 3 games get crammed into a noon eastern timeslot on the BTN, and most fans are only getting the primary BTN feed (and thus the game of the week), then lots of fans will miss lots of games.

Conclusion

In short, the BTN probably isn’t going to be all that it’s cracked up to be – at least not yet. Right now they’re talking about how much HD coverage they’re going to have, and how many games they’re going to show. But the bottom line is that is that if you’re a fan, and your team isn’t on your television, you’re going to be upset. And the way things are set up right now, this very well could happen to you this fall.

For months, people like me have been saying that we need to call our cable/satellite operators and get the word out that we want the Big Ten Network. And I still urge you to do so. But considering this “news” from the mouth of the President of the Network, I think that plenty of folks are going to get the shaft even if they do get the Big Ten Network this fall. You heard it here first – Big Ten message boards will be filled with posts like, “I thought the game was on BTN?! Why is MSU-Purdue on?!!!,” or, “It says turn to channel 72 for our game… There’s an INFOMERCIAL on channel 72!! Argh!!”

Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Taking Another Look at the Football Schedule

2007-05-01T10:12:00.000-04:00

Let’s Start with the Weakest of the Weak

There are 4 teams, in my opinion, to which a loss would be pretty darn embarrassing:

Appalachian State
@ Northwestern
Eastern Michigan
@ Illinois

One thing about the schedule that I really like is that we have only 2 losable road games. And one of those (at MSU) is only losable because it’s a rivalry and it might be a night game. In a rational person’s mind (read: not mine), that’s a highly probable win. Regarding the (very) winnable road games, Illinois has done a good job promoting its program, but excessive amounts of interviews on ESPNews will only get you so far (I’m looking at you, Brady Quinn). The Illini 5th Year Senior class has won 2 (two!) Big Ten games. Things should change some time, but a win over Michigan is a reach. As for Northwestern, they’re still Northwestern. And not 1995 or 1999 Northwestern.

The September Stretch and Beyond

Sept. 8 Oregon
Sept. 15 Notre Dame
Sept. 22 Penn State

Oregon has really jumped to the forefront as a trap game. 2nd game of the season, lots of (potential) playmakers returning for the Ducks’ offense, combined with a bunch of question marks in the Michigan secondary. But plenty of fans remain skeptical of a team that finished the 2006 season with 4 straight losses, scoring only 10 points against both USC and Arizona, and only 8 against BYU in their Bowl game. Myself? I’ll remain worried, as usual. They’ve replaced their Offensive Coordinator, so maybe they’ll be improved or maybe they’ll be working out the kinks. An optimist would say that a loss here doesn’t completely kill our National Title hopes. A pessimist would argue that a loss here could mean a 2-2 or (uh-oh!) 1-3 start, especially if Oregon gives other offenses a blueprint for exploiting our apparent issues on defense.

The Notre Dame game is sandwiched between what some people consider 2 must-win games: Oregon, the first “real” game of the year. And Penn State, the Big Ten opener against a projected Top-4 Big Ten team (or Top-2, if you agree with Kirk Herbstreit, who went on the radio and seemed to predict a 2005-like season for the Wolverines: 1. Wisconsin 2. PSU 3. OSU 4. Michigan). A loss against Oregon kinda makes ND a must-win. A loss to ND kinda makes Penn State a must-win. This sort of domino effect theory is a bit intimidating, but there is definitely one positive: If Michigan can make it through the first four games undefeated, they should coast into November undefeated. When was the last time we could say that? Usually, there’s a team like Iowa waiting to spoil things for us, or at least give us a scare, in October. Not so much this year:

Oct. 6 Eastern Michigan
Oct. 13 Purdue (Homecoming)
Oct. 20 @ Illinois
Oct. 27 Minnesota

November Night Games?

Nov. 3 @ Michigan State
Nov. 10 @ Wisconsin
Nov. 17 Ohio State

Finishing the regular season with these 3 games will be a challenge, especially if ESPN/ABC gets greedy and makes one or both of the road games a nighttime kickoff. Don’t think it’s not possible – they did the same thing with the Minnesota and Penn State back-to-back road games last year. Granted, these games will be in November, but after seeing their ratings go through the roof with various Big Ten night games last season, ESPN/ABC will be chomping at the bit to keep teams like Michigan playing in primetime. The question then becomes, will MSU and Wisconsin risk the general welfare of their students, couches, and campuses for some national exposure? I have a bad feeling that at least one of them will be onboard.

A win at MSU should happen. A win at Wisconsin might happen. A win against Ohio State MUST happen. Not much else needs to be said. One thing I will be interested in is following Wisconsin’s season. In recent years, we have played them much earlier in the fall. This time around, we get to see how they match up against teams like Penn State, Iowa, and Ohio State before they play us. That should give us a better gauge on their talent level (especially at QB, where they finally have to replace John Stocco).

Other Thoughts

- As mentioned earlier, the road slate is fairly weak this year. And another good thing about it is that the road games get progressively tougher. At Northwestern should be a breeze. Heck, sometimes that crowd can seem pro-Michigan, thanks to a strong Chicago alumni base. At Illinois, the team will be weak but the crowd will be a bit stronger. We might even face some noise issues if the Illini are hanging around. At MSU should be much more of a test, for obvious rivalry reasons. And Wisconsin is a road game against a good team with an unrelenting crowd. The buildup from road game 1 to road game 4 might be a blessing. But after all, with a Senior QB, Senior RB, and a fairly experienced OL, you would think that they’ve got this road game thing down pat. Still, I’ll take any help we can get.

- Is it just me, or do we always miss “good” programs when they’re “down?” Iowa falls off the schedule in what should be a rebuilding year (or two) for them. We missed out on PSU when they were stinking up the joint (of course, they haven’t been a problem for us anyway – zing!). Purdue was pretty average the past two years, and we didn’t play them. Chalk it up to general Michigan bad luck.

The Complete Schedule

Sept. 1 Appalachian State
Sept. 8 Oregon
Sept. 15 Notre Dame
Sept. 22 Penn State
Sept. 29 @ Northwestern
Oct. 6 Eastern Michigan
Oct. 13 Purdue (Homecoming)
Oct. 20 @ Illinois
Oct. 27 Minnesota
Nov. 3 @ Michigan State
Nov. 10 @ Wisconsin
Nov. 17 Ohio State

Beilein begins browsing for brownstones between Briarwood & Bursley

2007-04-03T21:26:00.000-04:00

I figured I'd leave the cheesy Beilein/Beeline puns to the rest, and go with some 5th grade alliteration instead. So the former WVU coach is looking for a new home in Ann Arbor, and I'm cool with it. You might remember my thoughts back on February 11th:

"Count me in the camp of John Beilein of WVU. This guy has taken a team that lost everybody from last season and made them a NCAA Tournament team, even beating UCLA yesterday. Compare that to what Amaker has done in a season where he returned virtually everybody, as Seniors, no less. In fact, compare any of Beilein’s seasons to Amaker’s, and it will likely make you ill. And, in case you missed it, he’s doing it at West Virginia. West! Virginia! And we’re not talking Big East Football here. Big East Basketball is arguably the best in the country year-in and year-out. Quite impressive. Get this guy to Ann Arbor ASAP."

Unfortunately (for WVU fans), I was premature with the NCAA bid projection. But I don't think there's any doubt that the Mountaineers were a decent team this year. And what Beilein has done at previous stops is equally impressive. Now we get to see what he can do at a school with a solid tradition, albeit one with some serious improvements to make (both on and off the court). So what does Beilein have to do to make Michigan Basketball matter again? A few things, in no particular order:

1 - Try to save the recruiting class. Manny Harris and Kelvin Grady appear to be sticking with Michigan, so start by making Alex Legion understand that he is the perfect fit for Beilein's system. A tallish guard with a good shooting touch? Beilein lets those types take 12 3-pointers a game and gets serious production out of them. Bottom line - He makes them better and they make his teams better. Legion would be wise to listen to what Coach B (is that what people are going to call him?) has to say.

2 - Dispell the two myths. (1) Right now, there are still tons of folks who think Beilein plays a slow, boring type of offense. As others have pointed out, the stats simply don't agree with that notion. I find it laughable that people are already convinced that Beilein's offenses are habitually stagnant. Um, have you seen a Michigan basketball game in the past 5 years or so? Pass around the perimeter, pass around the perimeter, launch a 3 as the shot clock runs out. The offense will be improved, especially in the long term. (2) The other myth that has been perpetuated (in, like, 5 days, which is insane) is that Beilein can't recruit. Much of this has focused on whether he will be able to recruit in/around Detroit, and many folks are already convinced that he won't. I say give the guy a chance. I'm sure we'll miss out on a few me-first guys, or guys that are looking for a paycheck instead of a learning experience, but I also think Beilein will have some success recruiting. As bad as things have been, Michigan is still Michigan. Many kids grow up liking the school, for one reason or another. And some (some) kids and parents still value a quality education. I'm more confident in Beilein's offense than his recruiting, but I'm willing to give him the chance to prove himself before writing him off.

3 - Sell the program year 'round. I read somewhere that Beilein had a weekly radio show in West Virginia. He needs to do that and then some in Michigan. Radio shows, TV shows, newspaper ads, whatever it takes. Amaker was great with the Alumni groups, even making a few trips down to visit our crew in D.C., but he didn't sell other (more imporant?) folks: recruits, fans, the Average Joe. Beilein needs to get people talking about Michigan Basketball, even if we lose 20 games next year. You're the face and the voice of the program - get your face and voice out there.

4 - Push for facilities upgrades. Duh. Let's hope this was negotiated, or at least discussed, when Beilein met with Martin this week.

When Amaker was hired, plenty of Seton Hall fans thanked us. When Beilein was hired, every West Virginia fan cursed us. He's a great X's and O's coach, a likeable guy, and he runs things by the book. All things considered, I'm happy with this hire and I think the future of Michigan Basketball is in good hands.

Ann Arbor area Men's Wearhouses will feel the effect

2007-03-19T11:31:00.000-04:00

No more mock turtlenecks

So Tommy’s gone, and most fans are happy about that. Candidates for the job appear to fall into categories: “Established Names” (Lon Kruger (UNLV), Steve Lavin (ex-UCLA)) and “New Faces” (Chris Lowery (So. Illinois), Sean Miller (Xavier)). Many folks feel that a “name” hire is necessary, considering our failures with Amaker and the immediate future of the program (retaining signed recruits and current players). While I haven’t done enough research, I’m not totally on board with that theory. I’d prefer Kruger to Miller. However, I’d prefer Lowery to Lavin. The coaches have to be evaluated individually, and I think the hiring committee will be smart enough to do so. [P.S. My girlfriend says that Amaker deserved to be fired because of his poor fashion sense. Word.]

More input from the girlfriend?

She’s a Grand Haven native, so she requested that I show some love for Dann (with two “n’s”) O’Neill (with two “l’s”), Michigan’s second football commitment for the class of 2008. O’Neill should be a consensus top-5 player in the state of Michigan, and will likely play Offensive Tackle. Will O’Neill come to be known as the best thing from Grand Haven since ~~Butch’s Beach Burritos~~ my girlfriend? Since he’ll be playing at a position of need, I hope so.

Prepare to squint less at Michigan Stadium

Some scoreboard upgrades are coming to the Big House. People around Ann Arbor have said that cranes have already been doing some work in recent days. I’m sure it will be an improvement regardless, but it’s unclear whether the LED display will be High Definition. Paying lots of money for technology that is already outdated isn’t the best idea, so let’s hope Bill Martin contacted the Texas folks before making any decisions. Note: It doesn’t appear that this will change the video displays (the biggest part), just the scoreboards (Down, Distance, Time Outs, Yardage, etc.) and the message boards on the bottom. I could be mistaken, though.

Only 166 days left to prepare

Appalachian State’s first spring practice report is online.

Spring Practice starts on Saturday

2007-03-13T13:45:00.000-04:00

But until then, we are forced to think about the NIT… again. I’ve seen enough, and I think many (most?) Michigan fans have, as well. E-mailing the President (marysuec@umich.edu) and the Athletic Director (wcmartin@umich.edu) might help, but I honestly hope that it doesn’t. Because, seriously, if these folks need our input to persuade them to fire Amaker, then I think we might have a mess on our hands, Tom Goss style. How sad is it that I’m rooting against Michigan in tonight’s NIT game, because I think that a run to Madison Square Garden might mean that Amaker returns? Has it really come to that? Are the folks in charge at U of M really goofy enough to base this decision on a few NIT games as opposed to a 6-year body of “work?” Maybe I’m just being my usual, paranoid self. For the sake of Michigan sports, I hope I’m way off base here.

If Amaker stays (possible) and we don’t make the Tourney next season (likely), then what? He gets yet another pass because we have a young team? He had 6 years to rebuild, and he didn’t accomplish anything (unless NIT success is “something” to you). Seriously, think about it: If I would have told you, in the Spring of 2001, that Michigan would not make the NCAA Tournament for the next 6 years, would you have believed me? Would anybody have believed me? Certainly Dickie V, Jay Bilas, and the rest of the folks who predicted success for Amaker would have scoffed at that prediction.

The best thing Amaker has done, in 6 full seasons, is move the student section down to the bleachers. Every time Michigan could have “clinched” a Tournament bid with a big win, they lost. Every time Michigan could have helped its case for a Tournament berth with a Big Ten Tourney victory, they lost. Michigan has never played past Friday in the Big Ten Tournament under Amaker (that’s just the 2nd round). Michigan is such an afterthought in college basketball right now that the analysts on ESPN2’s NIT Selection Special talked more about our opponent (Utah State... Utah State!) than us.

Michigan’s facilities are sub-par, but you can say the same thing about Purdue, a 9-seed in Matt Painter’s second season. And, yes, Gary Williams had a few years of mediocrity at Maryland before building them into a strong program, but I think it’s safe to say that he’s the exception, not the rule. There are lots of excuses. There are many “what ifs?” But where is the progress? When it comes to that, I haven’t seen enough. When it comes to Amaker, I have.

Off-Topic Tuesday: The Return

2007-02-27T10:45:00.000-05:00

Completely off-topic, and completely disorganized. It’s been a long week (already)…

- I’m no genius, but I’ve been thinking about a “forever stamp” for a while now. Canada and the U.K. beat us to it, but I’m glad we’re on the bandwagon. It’s actually going to be pretty sad when the Post Office is filled with little old ladies trying to hoard forever stamps the day before a price increase.

- It’s amazing to me how many people refuse to mix cereals. Don’t compare it to those 11-year-olds who get a little bit of each drink from the “fountain” dispensers at Burger King, McDonalds, etc. That’s just gross. Mixing cereals can produce tasty, healthy choices: Cheerios and Rice Krispies, for example. Maybe add some Raisin Bran in there, if you want some sugar. Please try it – I bet you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

- Shout out to my girlfriend for noticing this: In the new DirecTV commercial with Doc Brown talking about how he forgot to tell Marty about DirecTV’s HD capabilities, there is a serious error. The Doc speaking is the “1955 Doc.” He wouldn’t have known anything about DirecTV (then again, same thing goes for the “1985 Doc”). Disappointing.

- Speaking of Back to the Future, if I’m channel surfing and one of the following movies is on, there’s a 99.3% chance that I’m watching it:

Wedding Crashers
The Karate Kid
Back to the Future
The Usual Suspects
The 40-Year-Old Virgin
The Shawshank Redemption

It’s quite common that at least two of these are on at the same time. Then it becomes a difficult decision.

The other ASU. No, not Arkansas State.

2007-02-22T09:48:00.000-05:00

The official 2007 Michigan Football schedule was finalized last week, as you likely heard, with the addition of Appalachian State as the season opener. I’ve updated the sidebar to the right accordingly. Some thoughts…

Yes, it really could be worse

Just because they’re not Division I-A doesn’t mean they’re terrible. In fact, there are dozens of I-A teams that are clearly less desirable than Appalachian State (for BCS purposes, that is). In an era where voters have admittedly manipulated their BCS votes to reflect their own, arguably illogical criteria, or create their preferred matchup, every team would be wise to get the BCS computers on their side. With that in mind, Michigan did the best it could.

Take a look at last season’s final Sagarin ELO-Chess rankings (the ones in red, which are used for the BCS), and you’ll see that Appalachian State (at #44) was ranked ahead of teams like Iowa, Alabama, Kansas State, Missouri, Michigan State and even the last two seasons’ openers, Northern Illinois and Vanderbilt. I understand that the general public would rather see a “name” school instead of Appalachian State, or maybe even another MAC school like CMU or WMU. But believe it or not, Appalachian State will likely help our strength of schedule more than most of the other mid-level opponents that might have been available.

Side note: The new, proper names for the different subdivisions are the “Bowl subdivision” (formerly I-A) and the “Championship subdivision” (formerly I-AA). Pretty dumb, huh?

Looking at the big picture, long-term

As usual, Brian from mgoblog has this mild controversy covered. The only thing I’d take issue with is his comment that “The Pac-10's notable lack of really dire OOC opponents (only one I-AA matchup across the conference) is less steadfast nobility and more a response to the West Coast's notoriously fickle/crappy fanbases.” I’d add that, more realistically, the Pac-10’s “better” non-conference schedule is first and foremost a result of the fact that each Pac-10 team plays 9 conference games (round-robin), leaving room for only 3 non-conference. Other conferences have at least 4 non-conference games that must be filled, and more slots to be filled equals more crappy opponents on the schedule. Well, they don’t have to be filled, but they will be filled in order to maximize revenue, as Brian and several others have pointed out.

The NCAA only approved the 12th regular season game a short time before last season, giving teams little time to prepare their upcoming schedules. ESPN helped Michigan set up the Vanderbilt game, but no such agreement could be made this year. Seeing that schools schedule years in advance, teams just had to make do. Last year we lucked out with Vandy, this year we didn’t. I think that, as time goes on, you’ll see more appropriate and (could it be?) imaginative planning from the Michigan Athletic Department. Rumors persist regarding Michigan’s desire to play Notre Dame “semi-regularly” (as opposed to annually), and schedule home-and-homes with various regional powers (Georgia continually gets mentioned. I hope that smoke equals fire). As if losing to Ohio State on a consistent basis the past few years hasn’t been hard enough, it is also tough to see them in marquee non-conference games seemingly every year, and scheduling some great opponents: Texas in 2005 and 2006, USC in 2008 and 2009, Miami in 2010 and 2011, Cal in 2012 and 2013, Virginia Tech in 2014 and 1015. That’s the kind of lineup I want to see.

So with 4 slots to fill for the foreseeable future, we might get a few more substandard opponents in the immediate future, for the reasons discussed in the previous paragraph. But as time goes on, and proper planning is more feasible, I think we’ll see:

- No more I-AA opponents
- Less Notre Dame
- Home-and-homes with exciting opponents
- More home games against mid-level BCS conference teams (Cincinnati? Stanford?)
- One MAC opponent each year, guaranteed
- 3 home games 80% of the time, 4 home games 20% of the time

The problem with Notre Dame

Going off on a tangent here… A big part of Michigan’s scheduling “problem” is the fan base’s psychology, in my opinion. Many fans, including myself, have grown a bit tired of playing Notre Dame every year. Call it sour grapes (and it might be), but I don’t think Michigan has anything to gain from playing Notre Dame, judging by recent experience. If ND beats us, it’s “Return to Glory Part 8.” If we beat ND, they’re overrated. And I’m convinced that if ND absolutely stinks, we still have just as good of a chance to lose to them. You say “2003,” (38-0) I say “2004” (losing at ND the week after they lost to BYU. A year in which ND finished with home losses to Purdue, Boston College, and Pitt, but not Michigan). Another issue is the illogical, yet prevalent, mindset that Notre Dame is a de facto Big Ten team. Living in ACC country (which is horrible, by the way), I’ve been amazed at how many seemingly knowledgeable college football fans (a) think ND is in the Big Ten, and/or (b) chastise Michigan’s non-conference schedule by focusing on the MAC schools and failing to realize that we play Notre Dame, as a non-conference game, every year. People seriously think that we should play Notre Dame, just because we always have, but they are unwilling to give us credit for doing so. The risk/reward formula for the Notre Dame game is way out of whack. It’s time for a change.

2 posts in less than 24 hours?!

2007-02-11T09:39:00.000-05:00

Stop the presses! But there's some decent stuff out there for a Sunday in February, so I've gotta pass it along...

Jim Delany is already sick of Urban Meyer, too

Am I the only one that finds this really, really odd? This is an official press release – it’s not something he said in an interview. It’s a well-thought out, revised, edited press release. Ummm, huh? Reaction has ranged from confusion (me) to elation. Some fans are saying “it’s about time somebody stood up for the Big Ten!”

Unfortunately, I think most people are failing to see the motivation behind this off-the-wall war of words with the SEC (and/or the national media). The Big Ten is starting its own TV channel in August, and this is just part of the public relations campaign. See, it’s all about selling a product, creating demand, etc. Marketing 101. And as you B-school types know, this kind of stuff can get nasty. In fact, the Big Ten Network is already laying the smack down on local affiliates (like Grand Rapids, Michigan’s WXSP):

“The newly formed Big Ten Network has informed WXSP and other over-the-air stations around the state not to bother bidding for the league's telecast package. It will instead start to hoard most of those events for itself, beginning in the fall, when the conference launches its new digital channel on cable and satellite systems.”

The problem, however, is that the Big Ten Network has not reached any deals with any cable or satellite operators except for DirecTV and the little-known, internet-based AT&T TV. It’s been widely-rumored that the Network will initially start out in the 8 states that are home to Big Ten teams. But getting a national carriage agreement from Comcast, Dish Network, and Time Warner Cable is priority number one for the Big Ten Network. So at a time when the SEC is using its TV station (CBS) to push its propaganda, the Big Ten is starting up its own hype machine. In the meantime, I have two suggestions: (1) call and write your cable/dish provider and make it known that you want the Big Ten Network, and (2) be prepared to watch a few Michigan-Indiana games at a local sports bar in the coming years, especially if you’re outside the Midwest. It's all about the money. Always. Grrrr.

The 2007 Football Schedule

Don’t be surprised if Michigan plays on December 1st this year, primarily due to the BCS drama of last season. If this happens, there is also a very good chance that Michigan will open the season a week later than most other teams, on September 8th (the EMU game has been moved to October 6th - not sure if it could be moved back?). This would stink for two primary reasons: (1) we would have to wait an extra week for Michigan football (although this was the case in 1997, so maybe it’s good luck?), and (2) we would open with Oregon, who has enough returning talent (especially on Offense) to pull the upset. The old adage of “you improve the most between your first and second games” could prove to be true here.

Spring Practice/Game Info

Spring Practice begins on Saturday, March 17th, with the Spring “Game” falling on Saturday, April 14th (time TBA). Witness Ryan Mallett running a simulated 2-minute drill! Don’t witness any tackling or anything resembling an actual “game!” Complain about how you can’t get any autographs from players! Big fun!

If you’re a coach, you can check out the Spring Clinic from March 29-31. Here’s the registration form.

Thinking about a new B-ball coach at Michigan? Join the club!

Fortunately for us, the always-thorough Jake from Motown Sports Revival has it covered. 26 viable candidates, and then some! Count me in the camp of John Beilein of WVU. This guy has taken a team that lost everybody from last season and made them a NCAA Tournament team, even beating UCLA yesterday. Compare that to what Amaker has done in a season where he returned virtually everybody, as Seniors, no less. In fact, compare any of Beilein’s seasons to Amaker’s, and it will likely make you ill. And, in case you missed it, he’s doing it at West Virginia. West! Virginia! And we’re not talking Big East Football here. Big East Basketball is arguably the best in the country year-in and year-out. Quite impressive. Get this guy to Ann Arbor ASAP.

2007 Recruiting Wrap-Up

2007-02-10T17:28:00.000-05:00

I know I’m late to the party here, but since these guys haven’t even suited up yet, I figure I can still provide some comments that will make me look foolish in the months and years to come. I sometimes like to pretend that I’m an “expert,” and as such, I’ve broken down the class based not only on talent, but also Michigan’s ability (or inability) to fill needs at each position. Starting with best, and descending from there.

And if you’re wondering why Michigan had such bad luck with state of Michigan recruits this year, see my take in the “Random Thoughts” section near the bottom. Thanks for reading, and thanks for visiting after my way-too-long hiatus. On to the show…

The Cream of the Crop

Quarterback

QB Ryan Mallett’s talents have been discussed ad nauseam, so I’ll refrain from fawning over him. After Lloyd announced that he expects Mallett to play this year, the question becomes whether he’ll be a 3-year starter after Henne graduates, or leave early for the NFL after 2009. Since the 2009 schedule looks easier than usual, and the talent level will be high again that year (after a potential “down” year in 2008), it doesn’t seem improbable that Mallett leads us to a BCS Championship (or close to one) and heads to the pros. Prepare yourself mentally now. But I digress…

In short, we filled an urgent need at football’s most important position with a super-tall, strong-armed QB who has the potential to be a legend if he stays healthy and works hard.

Wide Receiver

WRs Junior (a.k.a. “J.R.”) Hemingway and Toney Clemons should end up being major contributors down the road, with Hemingway potentially seeing the field this year. As Brian from mgoblog pointed out, the recruiting rankings and offer lists for these two guys are a bit odd. Hemingway dropped from a 4-star to a 3-star on Rivals for no apparent reason (other than the fact that he committed to a school from the North and them good ol’ boys from the South don’t like that?). Clemons, on the other hand, was a consensus 4-star guy (discounting ESPN, because they’re goofy) but didn’t claim many impressive offers. Rumors that his coach didn’t send out his film because he was pushing Clemons to Pitt, coupled with my Pittsburgh-area friends stating that he is “Braylon Part II” give me a feeling that he will be good. Now, about that Braylon thing... After being suspended for a playoff game, Clemons said:

"It was just a walk-through [practice]. We knew our assignments. We thought we could get a little pass. It was a short walk-through anyway. We went to practices all week and all season. We didn't think they'd mind too much."

To which Lloyd responded:

"~~Braylon Edwards~~ Toney Clemons and I are not on the same page. And ~~Braylon~~ Toney is a very good reader, so what he needs to do is find what page I'm on and get there. That's all I'm going to say."

Let’s hope he stays out of the doghouse and earns the #1 jersey in the process. Is that too much to ask? Probably.

Technically, WR Zion Babb rounds out the group, but I’m operating under the assumption that Zion Babb eventually moves to Safety, so I’ve included him in the DB group. After watching some video on Babb, it’s clear that he has much more speed than his 4.67 second 40-yard dash would lead you to believe. Unfortunately, there’s only so much playing time to go around. Hence the projected move to Defense.

Even if this WR class only ends up having 2 members, I think it’s best 1-2 punch since David Terrell and Marquise Walker joined the 1997 class. It also leaves room to take a few superstars in the 2008 class, in which Michigan seems to be sitting pretty with WRs.

Wheat, not Chaff

Defensive Back

CB Donovan Warren was thought to be a USC lock, but his commitment to Michigan gave the Wolverines their second and final 5-star recruit. Warren will certainly get playing time this year, it’s just a matter of how much. If I controlled the universe, Warren would have enrolled early, because I think he will be the most important recruit this year. Others will shine down the road, but Warren will be forced to contribute early and often.

CB Michael Williams is projected for the Nickel Back spot, currently occupied by Brandon Harrison. Along with Warren and Mallett, Williams was an Army All-American this year, and seems like a good bet to see the field in 2007. I’m a bit surprised at how unenthusiastic some Michigan fans were about Williams. Any time you can pull a consensus 4-star CB out of California, whilst keeping him away from Notre Dame at the same time, you should be happy. I am.

CB Troy Woolfolk is the son of former Michigan RB Butch Woolfolk, so many fans are just thinking “legacy recruit.” Like his dad, though, he’s pretty fast (another track guy). Speaking of fast dudes, CB James Rogers won the Smokehouse Award as the fastest player at Michigan’s summer camp. Rogers was primarily a RB/WR in High School, but Lloyd announced that he will play CB at Michigan, at least for now. Woolfolk and Rogers will, at least, provide some much-needed speed and depth in the Secondary.

The only true Safety recruit this year is Artis Chamber. Chambers is not a high-level prospect, but somebody thinks he is a great one:

"We think the best kid in the state who got away was the kid out of Fort Wayne (Chambers)," (Purdue Coach Joe) Tiller said. "We really liked him, but he had the Big Blue in his sights. If they offered, no one else was going to get him."

Considering that super-recruit and Michigan de-commitment Jerimy Finch (also a Safety) was from Indiana, too, this is high praise. Let’s hope Tiller knows what he’s talking about. Chambers joins Austin Panter, Ryan Mallett, and Vince Helmuth (discussed below) as an early enrollee. I had originally projected a Redshirt season for him, but he could be another in the long line of Michigan DBs who play Special Teams as Freshmen before seeing any meaningful time in the Secondary.

As mentioned above, I expect WR recruit Zion Babb to move to Safety at some point in his career. While that would put Michigan at 6 DB recruits for this class, Michigan will still be looking for more DB talent in 2008, especially after losing out on top in-state CB recruit Ronald Johnson in what was one of the weirdest recruiting dramas in recent memory. However, the additions of Warren and Williams makes this a very good DB haul.

Defensive Line

DE Ryan Van Bergen was an early commit who might be my favorite recruit this year (not that that means anything). Van Bergen gained more notoriety as the year went on, eventually earning a 4th star from Rivals. Insiders and scouts continually harped on how underrated Van Bergen is/was, so I’m cautiously optimistic.

DT Renaldo Sagesse was originally committed to Illinois, but there was allegedly some issue with their admission of Canadian students (he’s from Quebec) that gave him pause. So, Sagesse gave Michigan a look when the coaches came calling, and changed his allegiance to the Wolverines. He’ll be 20 as a Freshman, which is helpful. It’s just hard to tell how good he is (or could be) since he was playing in the Great White North against presumably sub-par competition. However, there is no knocking his size and speed (6’4”, 320, 4.9 second 40-yard dash). If he has the work ethic, he’ll be a great last-minute addition to the class.

DT Marques Slocum is a name you’ll recognize from the past. Originally unable to get past admissions at Michigan in 2005, Slocum went to Prep School to get his grades up, and is currently a student in Ann Arbor. Unfortunately, Slocum will not be able to compete in Spring Practice, but he will play in the Fall, with 4 full years of eligibility to use. A monster of a man, Slocum is projected as an OL by some (especially considering our lack of depth at OT). I just think he’s too good on the DL to make the switch. We shall see. Regardless, I’m very happy he’s a part of this class.

You can never have too much talent on the DL, they say, and I think Michigan has done a good job of stock-piling the players over the past few years. Although this DL class was small, it is high-quality, in my opinion, especially considering the NFL frames on these guys. Long gone are the days of Pat Massey at DT, it seems (that was a cheap shot, I know). Anyway, I’m probably more excited about our DL recruits than most Michigan fans, but you can attribute that to my Van Bergen fanboy status.

Whole Grain Oatmeal

Linebacker

MLB Austin Panter is Michigan’s first Junior College recruit since the infamous WR Russell Shaw (who made more key catches in 1997 than he gets credit for). Nearly a decade after Shaw, Panter is at Michigan, already enrolled in classes, and looks to get lots of playing time this season. Replacing David Harris will be no easy task, and Michigan fans are hoping that Junior John Thompson can fill that role, but if he can’t, Panter will be there to shoulder the load. A JUCO All-American, Panter did not go to Junior College because of grade issues (like most players do), but rather because he grew up playing 8-man football in a small Kansas town. So, he isn’t your average throw-away JUCO recruit, having earned 4 stars from Rivals. Unfortunately, he is your average JUCO recruit in that he only has 2 years of eligibility left. Panter needs to be able to step in and play like a champ, quickly, and his measurables (6’4”, 240, 4.6(!) second 40-yard dash) make him appear to be capable of doing so. Finger’s crossed…

LB Marell Evans is arguably the most “raw” recruit this year. I don’t know much about him other than that he’s from RB Brandon Minor’s High School, and is our only 2-star commit. So, not much to talk about here except the dreaded “upside.” LB Brandon Herron hails from the same High School as CB commit Troy Woolfolk and 2008 WR recruit Darryl Stonum. These two relative unknowns provide depth, but lack the “wow” factor that many Michigan fans were looking for at LB this year. As such, 2008 is “the year of the LB” for Michigan recruiting purposes.

Tight End

TE Martell Webb is ye olde “athletic freak TE who also plays basketball,” while TE Steve Watson is more of a prototypical TE. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Watson grew into an Offensive Lineman (OT?) at some point, but I’d be a bit surprised because his dad was a WR and is the Receivers coach for the Denver Broncos, so I’m assuming the family wants and expects Steve to have the football thrown his way. Webb’s athleticism earned him 4 stars from the two major recruiting services, while Tom Lemming had him as the #34 player overall. These two are good complements to each other (good athleticism and good bloodlines), and fill what was a minor need at TE.

Running Back

RB Avery Horn and FB Vince Helmuth are likely a bit underrated. Fullbacks are rarely highly-rated, but considering Michigan got possibly the best Fullback in the country, who also happens to be a workout nut, I’m satisfied. In the days following Signing Day, Horn has popped up on many Michigan fans’ “most underrated” lists, especially after they took the time to watch his video highlights. His short stature leads to Mike Hart comparisons, but it looks like Horn has more speed and less cutting ability. If he has the vision and instincts to play in a zone blocking scheme at the college level, he could be the surprise of the class.

There was not a huge need at RB this year, with Brandon Minor showing signs that he can be a big contributor. But because Michigan was unable to get a top-rated RB in 2007, they’ll be looking for one or two in 2008.

Curds, but no Whey

Offensive Line

Curds. Just doesn’t sound appetizing, does it? I’m sure that the casein protein contained therein is quite nutritious, but count me out. And count Michigan out when it comes to OL recruiting this year. Center David Molk is a good one, but OT Mark Huyge is a relative unknown. Looking at the depth chart, this puts immense pressure on Michigan to get a few standout OTs in the 2008 recruiting class. If Molk can be our “Center of the future,” as some have stated, or even a quality Guard, and if Huyge can prove to be a diamond in the rough, then this OL class won’t be a complete bust. With Molk having the proverbial “nasty streak,” and Huyge possessing the “good feet” that you look for in an OT, these guys probably deserve a grade of “Incomplete” for now (especially considering that OL is the hardest position to evaluate/project with High School players). Regardless, with only 2 players and 1 OT in the class, Michigan will need both quality and numbers this recruiting season. I prematurely said that 2008 would be “the year of the LB” for Michigan recruiting. Let’s change that to “the year of the OT.”

Random Thoughts

- While this class is ranked lower than many Michigan fans (including myself) had hoped for, it is a decent class. We filled our need at QB with a potentially great one, and we got a CB who should be able to make a difference in the near future. Another super high-quality CB, some more LB help, and one or two highly-ranked OTs would have made it a Top-5 class. As it stands, most experts place the class around 10th or 12th in the nation. I’ll take it. [Note: Recruiting class rankings are inherently flawed, with too much weight being given to quantity over quality (Tennessee signed 32(!) players), but that is a topic for another day.]

- Michigan seems to be continuing to recruit more speed than in the past, and not necessarily worrying about where guys played in High School, or will play at Michigan. Zion Babb and James Rogers fit this mold.

- The state of Michigan had a lot of talent this year, but Michigan was largely shut out. While some view this as a cause for concern, let’s look at some of these players quickly and see what the deal was. I’ll use the Rivals.com Top 13 for the state of Michigan, since these represent the recruits who were given a ranking of 4 stars or higher:

(1) CB Ronald Johnson – Some drama here, and I’m not sure if we’ll ever know the whole story. Michigan was in the driver’s seat, with an alleged “silent verbal,” but then something happened, which allegedly was not Michigan’s fault. Blame his mom, blame “RoJo” himself, blame Lloyd if you really want to. But let’s just move on. He committed to USC.

(2) CB Dionte Allen – Rumored to be a “silent verbal” to Michigan early on. But, he grew up loving Florida State. He visits FSU, Bowden pulls out the preacher song and dance, and Dionte’s gone. Can you blame a kid for committing to his childhood favorite?

(3) DT Joseph Barksdale – Fairly early in the process, Barksdale and Michigan “parted ways.” Was he not “Michigan material?” To suggest so seems arrogant, but as time went on it became clear that Barksdale wanted to get away from home. Hence LSU.

(4) QB Keith Nichol – We wanted Mallett. We got Mallett. Nichol’s very good, but we had bigger fish to fry (no offense to Nichol).

(5) OL Darris Sawtelle – His grandfather played for Tennessee, and he was destined to go there from the start.

(6) LB Chris Colasanti – From Brother Rice, where Michigan traditionally struggles (for some odd reason). A Linebacker who was overwhelmed by the whole “Linebacker U” thing at Penn State.

(7) WR Mark Dell – Michigan never offered him. Again, bigger fish (Hemingway, Clemons).

(8) CB Cedric Everson – Notorious amongst recruitniks for claiming offers that he didn’t have. Michigan never offered. He committed to Georgia Tech. Decommitted for Michigan State. Then decommitted for Iowa on Signing Day. A kid that the coaches were probably told to stay away from, in my opinion.

(9) QB Steven Threet – Many think he would have gotten an offer and would have committed in any other year. But, again, no offer because of Mallett.

(10) DL Ryan Van Bergen – Committed to Michigan fairly early in the process.

(11) WR Taurian Washington – Another “bigger fish” situation. Washington did have a Michigan offer, but some insiders claim that Michigan stopped recruiting him once Hemingway and Clemons committed. There’s other stuff that went on here, but the bottom line is we didn’t really need him.

(12) TE Martell Webb – Committed to Michigan fairly early in the process.

(13) S Quincy Landingham – Michigan never offered him, choosing to go after Chambers and Finch instead.

The final breakdown of the Top 13 in Michigan:

5 of the 13 were never pursued by Michigan for one reason or another (other priorities, lack of talent, character concerns, etc.).

3 of the 13 had “dream schools” that weren’t Michigan. Allen to FSU. Sawtelle to Tennessee. Colasanti to PSU. Once those three stepped foot on those respective campuses, it was game over.

2 of the 13 were initially pursued by Michigan, but ties were eventually severed (more abruptly and clearly in one case (Barksdale) than the other (Washington)).

2 of the 13 committed to Michigan. Both Van Bergen and Webb are possibly the most underrated players on the list, at #10 and #12, respectively. This sounds like homerism, but it’s supported by other rankings (Scout, Tom Lemming, etc.).

1 of the 13 (Johnson) allegedly committed to the Michigan coaches at least once, and all signs pointed to Michigan up until 4 days or so before he announced his college choice. Something happened, but that’s recruiting for you. Stuff happens.

So there you have it. A crazy year, for sure, but also an apparent outlier. If things continue this way in 2008, I’ll have second thoughts. But with Michigan already receiving a verbal commitment from Detroit CB Boubacar Cissoko (the best 2008 recruit in the state, by far) and being high on the lists of players such as OL Dann O’Neill and RB Jonas Gray, I’ll save my meltdown for another day.

Saying “Goodbye”

Farewell, 2007 recruiting. You were exhilarating, frustrating, entertaining, disappointing, and intriguing. Quite similar to the 2006 Michigan Football season, if you ask me. Here’s to a more productive, less stressful 2008.

Prove me wrong... please.

2007-01-20T16:22:00.000-05:00

After a nice home win against Purdue, some of you might be tempted to get your hopes up regarding Michigan basketball. I urge you not to. Here's our remaining regular season schedule:

Wed., Jan. 24 at Wisconsin 8:00 p.m. ESPN Full Court
Sat., Jan. 27 at Indiana Noon ESPN
Wed., Jan. 31 Iowa 8:00 p.m. ESPN Full Court
Tue., Feb. 6 at Ohio State 7:00 p.m. ESPN
Sat., Feb. 10 Minnesota 8:00 p.m. ESPN Full Court
Tue., Feb. 13 at Michigan State 9:00 p.m. ESPN
Sat., Feb. 17 Indiana 4:00 p.m. ESPN
Wed., Feb. 21 at Illinois 8:00 p.m. ESPNU
Sat., Feb. 24 at Minnesota 1:32 p.m. ESPN Full Court
Tue., Feb. 27 or Wed., Feb. 28 Michigan State Time/TV TBA
Sat., Mar. 3 Ohio State Time/TV TBA

For the sake of argument, let’s say that Michigan is the 5th-best team in the Big Ten, and that only the top 4 teams in the Big Ten are guaranteed NCAA bids. Both of those statements might be accurate, for all we know, and I think you could make strong arguments to support them. But check this out: In our final 11 games of the regular season, we play Ohio State twice, Michigan State twice, Indiana twice, and Wisconsin once (on the road). 7 of Michigan’s final 11 regular season games are against teams that most neutral observers would say are the “top 4” in the Big Ten.

Fair or not, the “last ten games” statistic has become more prevalent in the NCAA Tournament Committee’s collective mind. And while Michigan certainly choked down the stretch last season, they faced a fairly difficult schedule. Same thing this year. Same result? Unfortunately, I think so. Blame the Big Ten schedule-makers. Blame Amaker. Blame Bill Martin. Blame the facilities. It doesn’t matter. It’s what we’re faced with, and here’s what I think is gonna happen...

I don’t think we’ll beat any of the “top 4” on the road – that’s 4 Big Ten losses right there. And I don’t think we can beat OSU at home – make it 5 losses. Add those to the one loss we already have (at Purdue), and we have 6 “guaranteed” Big Ten losses, in my mind. Call me a pessimist, but I think I’m being realistic. We just don’t beat good teams on the road (plus, OSU has Greg Oden. We have Courtney Sims. ‘Nuff said.).

So let’s look at the 6 other “winnable” games: Needless to say, wins over Iowa and Minnesota at home are critical – lose one of those, and the season might be over. Lose both, and it is. Assuming we can take care of business in those two games, the season comes down to this four-game stretch, in my opinion:

Sat., Feb. 17 Indiana 4:00 p.m. ESPN
Wed., Feb. 21 at Illinois 8:00 p.m. ESPNU
Sat., Feb. 24 at Minnesota 1:32 p.m. ESPN Full Court
Tue., Feb. 27 or Wed., Feb. 28 Michigan State Time/TV TBA

Winning these four games in a row will go a long way to improving our NCAA chances. In fact, we might need to win those games to have any chance at the Tourney. 10-6 in the Big Ten is good enough. 9-7 in the Big Ten, during a year in which the Big Ten is way “down” (in the eyes of the media and the computers), might not do the trick. I don’t want to need two wins in the Big Ten Tournament to "earn" a NCAA Tournament berth. We’ve seen how that goes.

Also of importance: If things go as I expect, we will be without a signature road win this year, which will be a pretty big weakness in a resume that also includes losses to the only three non-conference teams with a pulse that we played (at NC State, a blowout at UCLA, and a mini-blowout at home against Georgetown).

I don’t hate Amaker, but I don’t love him. I don’t know if he’s a good coach. When color commentator and former Michigan player Tim McCormick can consistently and accurately predict your defensive tendencies, you’re probably not a great coach. When I know that you’re going to run a double screen for a Dion Harris three-pointer out of timeout, opposing coaches probably know it, too. People "inside" the Michigan program consistently say that Amaker will be back next year regardless of what happens this season. If so, I suppose life will go on, right? I'm just not going to waste much time or energy hoping that they can secure a Tourney bid. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Post-season blues

2007-01-16T21:55:00.000-05:00

The longest 8 months of the year have officially begun. Random thoughts...

- The BCS Championship Game was pretty crazy/boring/surprising, no? It’s rare that you see such an exciting beginning followed by a pretty thorough butt-kicking. It reminded me a lot of the 2003 Orange Bowl between Iowa and USC. Both games started with a kickoff return for a TD, and in both games, the better team pretty much dominated from that point forward.

- Is it just me, or are more and more players leaving early for the NFL Draft each year? I’m no Draft expert, but I follow college football quite closely, and every day on the ESPNews ticker, I’ve seen at least one “who?” scroll across. I don’t necessarily think this is a bad trend. If you don’t have anything left to prove, and you play for, say, Marshall, I can’t blame you for taking the NFL money. It’s just a bit amazing to me that a dozen or so running backs alone had the same idea. But, ya, 4th-round NFL money is still good money - better money than most of us will ever see.

- Ted Ginn conspiracy theory! I’m not buying it, but I will admit that during the game, I questioned his need for crutches. I’ve just always viewed him as a “doesn’t like contact” guy. But after seeing this pic, I think it was all legit.

- Oregon lost their Offensive Coordinator to LSU this week. After being “exposed” against OSU and USC, I was a bit worried about what a quality OC could do against our 2007 secondary, especially in what might be our first “real” game of the season. I still consider this a trap game, though.

- This is old, but I think plenty of folks missed it:

"Michigan's athletic director Bill Martin said Monday he is looking for an opponent for Sept. 1 -- he moved the Eastern Michigan game back into October. Martin wouldn't say whom he's considering but added it would be a Division I school."

- Speaking of 2007, there are some decent non-conference games, although not nearly as exciting as this past season:

9/1 – Tennessee at Cal
9/1 – Oklahoma State at Georgia
9/1 – Georgia Tech at Notre Dame

9/8 – Virginia Tech at LSU
9/8 – Miami at Oklahoma
9/8 – TCU at Texas
9/8 – Nebraska at Wake Forest
9/8 – BYU at UCLA
9/8 – Notre Dame at Penn State
9/8 – Navy at Rutgers

9/15 – USC at Nebraska
9/15 – South Florida at Auburn
9/15 – Notre Dame at Michigan
9/15 – Louisville at Kentucky
9/15 – Texas A&M at Miami
9/15 – Ohio State at Washington

9/29 – Alabama vs. Florida State (at Jacksonville, FL)

- Other stuff you might have missed: Better Red Zone stats, offensively and defensively ; Post-Carr coaching options

The end is nigh

2007-01-07T20:19:00.000-05:00

Just one day remains in the 2006 college football season. Depression sets in soon. I'm still pondering ways to hibernate, grizzly bear style. Yet again I'm faced with a recurring problem: root for Ohio State, or no? That whole BCS mess was frustrating, but seeing that Michigan didn't hold up its end of the bargain (Dwayne Jarrett just caught another pass), does it really matter? The question now revolves around my Big Ten loyalties. A 3-0 mark against the SEC would be nice. But it won't be nice when Mark May, Craig James and company continue with the "the SEC is the best conference" stuff next season. Resistance to "southern speed" is apparently futile (unless you play for Wisconsin or Penn State, that is). This is the best:

"Tim Brando, going with the pro-SEC theme that CBS shamelessly employs, began highlights of the Penn State-Tennessee game on New Year’s Day (a game in which Penn St. won) by saying, “Now let’s remember that the outcome of bowl games does nothing to prove which conference is better.” Brando might as well have been wearing an “I Love the SEC” T-Shirt."

Other stuff in my brain:

- I know it's a ridiculous excuse, but it also seems to be a trend... Am I the only one that thinks we play significantly worse on grass than FieldTurf? And I'm not just talking about playing worse on the road - it's like we're a bunch of 3rd-graders at the ice rink. If I had more time/energy, I'd do some sort of research on this. It's just something that's been in my head since the Iowa game in 2003, and it has been prevalent at ND, OSU, the Rose Bowl... even at Purdue. It's just weird.

- It's a bit disappointing (and amazing) that Boise State was the New Year's Day Bowl participant that reminded me why I love college football so much. And to those saying "see... if there was a playoff, that wouldn't have happened!," I say, if there was a playoff (done right), it would have happened - it just would have happened in Boise, Idaho or Norman, Oklahoma, in the first round. You know those March Madness upsets that everybody loves so much? Why can't they happen in college football, too? Boise State could be this year's George Mason. They might not beat an OSU or a Florida, but at least they'd have a chance, as opposed to finishing #5 in the polls, or whatever.

Reality check

2007-01-02T19:25:00.000-05:00

So, ya. Remember all of my enthusiasm and delusions of grandeur regarding the 2007 season? Well, we can temper that, significantly. Too many issues, too little time. We have seen games like this before. Unfortunately, it seems to be becoming an annual occurrence. I’ll focus on the Offense, but that doesn’t mean the Defense wasn’t just as bad. But the offensive issues are easier to analyze quickly, especially when they’re so blatantly obvious. This is going to be a disorganized rant, because I’m a bit peeved. Anyway…

Defensive issues

Isn’t it supposed to be an advantage for the Defense when a team is one-dimensional? We knew that USC wasn’t a strong rushing team, and we still couldn’t figure out a way to defend the pass. I hate to bring up the “H” word, but can you imagine the heat he would be getting if he had coached the last 2 defensive debacles? Ron English had the best front seven since 1997, and he got shredded by the two best teams Michigan faced. Save for one pass break-up by Willis Barringer, the Safety play was atrocious. Herrmann was DC and LB coach, and our LBs regressed. English is DC and Safeties coach, and the same thing seems to be happening to his crew. Seriously, what is the deal?! The honeymoon is over, Ron. Teams saw the OSU game (or should I say the Ball State game?) and realized we can be had. Spread the field and throw. Expect more of the same against Oregon, ND, OSU, and others next season. Better figure it out.

Offensive issues

USC’s CBs were giving our WRs huge cushions. Where were the quick slants and 3-step drops? What happened to “taking what the Defense gives you?” That’s the excuse we’ll hear when we stumble through a 17-7 win against a crappy team like Northwestern or Illinois. But where is that quote when we lose a game? It’s nowhere to be found, because the truth is we don’t take what the Defense gives us… ever. Sure, Henne will check from a pass to a run on a 2-point conversion, but the play-calling, in general, consistently puts him (and the entire Offense) behind the 8 ball. We line up and do what we want, and we expect it to work. Then we blame “execution” when it doesn’t. So ridiculous. So arrogant.

So that’s what we have: a team that can line up and “execute” against inferior competition, and expects to do the same against teams with equal or superior talent. A team that can zone block against mid-level Big Ten teams, but gets stuffed by teams with speed and athleticism (which makes sense – you just can’t run slow-developing zone plays to the outside against teams with speed on the DL and at LB (but don’t fret, we’ll try it again next year against OSU and in the Bowl game!)).

A five or seven-step drop against a USC team that is blitzing on every play is like a death sentence for the QB. Did you see how comfortable Henne looked in the shotgun? Did he miss one pass out of the shotgun (I don’t think he did)? So why the lack of shotgun? Oh, that’s right:

“Our Offense primarily is designed… the shotgun part of it is the 2-minute offense, late in the half, late in the game. And, we felt like we had to have good balance, we had to be able to run the football some to be successful against SC. And, to be able to run the ball effectively, we’ve gotta have the quarterback under center.” – Lloyd Carr, post-game Rose Bowl press conference

“The shotgun part of it is the 2-minute offense, late in the half, late in the game.” And that’s how Lloyd thinks. That mentality is etched in stone in his brain. Because, you know, you wouldn’t want to exploit an opponent’s weakness (USC’s was its DBs, although you wouldn’t have known by our play-calling). And you certainly wouldn’t want to make life easy for your QB who has continually shown, for 3 full seasons, that he is reliable when he has time, but makes mistakes and lacks the ability to throw the ball away when he is under pressure. Nope, you wouldn’t want to do that. Not after 4 sacks in the 1st Quarter! Not if you’re Lloyd Carr or Mike DeBord. Because the shotgun is reserved for special occasions, like the fine china in your mom’s dining room. C’mon, Lloyd. Get real.

The bullheaded notion that we must have “balance,” and must “run to establish the pass” took yet another swift kick to the groin in the Rose Bowl. During one stretch in the 3rd and 4th quarters, as USC racked up 28 points off of 4 passing TDs, the Trojans threw the ball on 27 of 29 plays (if my math is correct). Ball game. They dominated us in the 2nd Half without a running game, or even the threat of a running game. And yet Lloyd and DeBord will continue to harp on “execution” in the running game.

You don’t win the game by being balanced. You don’t win the game if you have more rushing yards than the opposition. You win the game if you score more points than the other team. That’s football in 2007, like it or not. Offensive coaches: get with the program… like, now.

I love Mike Hart – I really do. But Mike Hart’s “highlight reel” runs are plays that should go for a loss, but end up going for 8 yards because he has great balance and is tougher than nails. Hart’s “amazing” runs go for 8 yards, not 80. Sure, Hart busts a 40-yarder every now and then (on runs up the middle when the blocking is perfect), but he isn’t a game-breaker. He isn’t Reggie Bush.

So why are we obsessed with stubbornly trying to churn out gains of 4, 2, 8, and 11 with Hart when we have ridiculous talent at WR, and a QB who, given time, is pretty darn good. Protect Henne, learn to pick up blitzes, and use the shotgun more often (it isn’t against the rules, you know?). Is that too much to ask, or do we have to let USC set a single-game sack record against us before we change things up a bit?

Bottom line

Attention Michigan coaches: The game has changed. Other teams are innovating. You are regurgitating. Stop being reactive. Start being proactive.

Rose Bowl pre-game thoughts

2006-12-30T16:21:00.000-05:00

I’ll leave the point-by-point breakdowns to the big boys, but here are some thoughts running through my head this New Year’s weekend:

Leon Hall’s shot at redemption

One of the images burned into my mind from the 2004 Rose Bowl (along with Braylon dropping a long bomb on our first drive) is Leon Hall getting knocked over by USC WR Mike Williams. Granted, Leon was only a True Freshman then, but I hope he remembers what USC’s Offense did that day: four passing TDs, with each scoring drive taking less than five minutes. If Hall can keep WR Dwayne Jarrett in check, USC’s big play chances will hinge primarily on WR Steve Smith, who called out Morgan Trent this week. Time for the secondary to prove they’re not just one star and three scrubs.

Have we actually prepared for, you know, blitzes?

USC sacked Michigan QB John Navarre 9 times in the 2004 Rose Bowl. Possibly the most frustrating thing about this was after the game, when Michigan OT Tony Pape said the team didn’t prepare for blitz protection (I don’t have a link, but I assure you, ~~we’re open~~ he said it). I have no idea what the coaches were thinking, and I don’t even want to guess because thinking about it still makes me mad. Regardless, Michigan had better be ready to pick up the blitz, because USC will bring the heat.

Our Defensive Line has to play up to its potential

USC QB John David Booty is good (25 TDs, 9 INTs, 61.8% completions), but doesn’t have great mobility, and looked flustered when pressured by UCLA (and rightfully so). One would think that although UCLA has quality DEs, their front seven isn’t as good as Michigan’s. We need to get to the QB early and often.

Neutralizing USC’s defensive speed

More screens, more draws. That has been the MO of Michigan’s offensive gameplans against faster defensive units (think recent OSU games, 2003 Outback Bowl vs. Florida, etc.). I think it might work this year, since we haven’t run many screens for Hart. In the 2004 Rose Bowl, USC was expecting them and had no trouble defending them. As far as draws go, I also think they could work. The change of pace from zone blocking sweeps to pure power-blocking draws might throw off USC, as it did many other Michigan opponents this season.

Prediction?

I don’t usually do predictions, especially right before a big game like this. Too superstitious. But I am concerned, to say the least. As my friend Jake put it in an e-mail exchange this week, I’d be much more confident in Michigan’s chances against USC on, say, November 25th. But give Pete Carroll a month to prepare, and he usually gets the job done. I think the players and coaches “deserve a win” – I’m just hoping they’re smart enough to realize that it’s theirs for the taking if they play their game. I’m expecting big things next season, so we might as well start 2007 the right way, no? Enjoy the game... Go Blue!

P.S. The game-time weather looks fine (is it ever not?).

Happy Holidays!

2006-12-19T16:56:00.000-05:00

I'll be back on Saturday the 30th with a little Rose Bowl preview. Until then, I'll be hanging out with family and friends, attempting to do as little work as possible. I hope you're able to do the same. Enjoy the Bowl games... Go Blue!

Ron Johnson - Where is he now?

2006-12-16T11:05:00.000-05:00

With many Michigan recruitniks hoping to land a commitment from Muskegon Defensive Back Ronald Johnson, it seems appropriate to take a minute to discuss the career of "the original Ron Johnson," who happened to be one of the best Michigan Running Backs ever. Coincidentally, "the original RoJo" was a speaker at the Detroit Free Press Dream Team ceremony this week, which honored "the new RoJo," among others.

Ronald Adolphus Johnson was born October 17, 1947 in Detroit. After earning High School All-America honors at Detroit’s Northwestern High School, he attended the University of Michigan. Johnson graduated from Michigan’s Ross School of Business with a concentration in Finance, and received a scholar-athlete award in 1969 from the National Football Foundation (NFF). In 1980, he earned his MBA from Fairleigh Dickinson University. So, he’s smart.

Here’s a short post-Michigan story, from the NFF site:

"After becoming Michigan’s top student-athlete (1966-68) and earning All-America honors his senior year as a halfback, Johnson played for seven years (1969-75) in the NFL as a first-round pick of the Cleveland Browns and an MVP running back for the NY Giants. While still a player, he embarked on a career as a real estate executive and entrepreneur. In 1983, Johnson founded the Rackson Corporation, which currently operates 24 KFC franchises in New Jersey, Tennessee, and Michigan."

Johnson is currently the Chairman of the NFF.

Additionally:

"Mr. Johnson takes an active role in the community, and his past board service includes the Hackensack Medical Center, Big Brothers, the Boy Scouts, University of Michigan Athletics and Business Schools, and Harlem Junior Tennis. He is a founding member of Minority Athletes Networking (MAN), an urban mentoring group, and he currently serves as a board member of the Calvary Episcopal Church. He also participates as a member of the Alpha Phi Alpha Fraternity and of the NAACP. A Detroit native, Johnson lives in Summit, N.J. with his wife Karen. They have two grown children."

Johnson is often forgotten (or unkown) amongst younger Wolverine fans, but his contributions prior to Bo Schembechler’s arrival in Ann Arbor earned him a respectable #36 ranking on Jake’s "100 Greatest Michigan Football Players" list, and a place in the College Football Hall of Fame. As Captain of the 1968 team, Johnson helped turn a 4-6, 5th-place Big Ten team into an 8-2, 2nd-place Big Ten team.

In terms of records at Michigan, Johnson rushed for 347 yards against Wisconsin in 1968, and scored 5 TDs (30 points) in that game – all Michigan single game records. It should be noted that Johnson also had the third-most rushing yards gained in a game: 289 against Navy in 1967. He still holds the single season record for rushing TDs, with 19 in 1968 (which is also good enough for 3rd all-time in total TDs in a season). His 42 rushing attempts vs. Northwestern in 1967 put him tied for 2nd place in rushing attempts in a game, a record that was just broken by Chris Perry in 2003 (51 at MSU).

More impressive stuff: Ron Johnson averaged 139.1 yards per game in the 1968 season. He is 8th all-time with 90.3 yards rushing per game for his career, which included 10 games over 100 yards and 3 games over 200. Only Mike Hart has more games with 200 or more yards rushing (4). Johnson had 26 or 27 career rushing TDs (depending on the source), but never had a receiving TD. He finished with 2,440 career rushing yards – pretty good, considering he only saw significant action in 2 seasons (1967 and 1968). While his total numbers and per carry average (5.0) are not gaudy, they set the bar for all future Michigan Running Backs. As his Michigan profile states, "[Johnson] [b]roke virtually all school rushing records - setting eight in [the] Big Ten."

It's that time of year again

2006-12-11T15:24:00.000-05:00

When there are 5 BCS Bowls and only 2 of them are any good, you know it’s a down year for Bowl games. Could it be the worst Bowl lineup ever? Some will say that it is, but that could just be a reflection of the parity that exists in college football (now more than ever?). Regardless, there are still a few games worth watching. I’ll rank ‘em according to my interest level (not whether I think they’ll be good games or whatever).

[Side note before I get started: Check out the horrible array of announcers for the BCS games on Fox.]

5 games I won’t miss:

1 – Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA
January 1, 2007, ABC, 5:00 p.m.
Michigan vs. USC

Tops the list for obvious reasons. As each day passes, this game becomes more and more important, in my opinion. Lose, and we finish a third consecutive season with losses to OSU and in the Bowl. People will be saying “the BCS got it right,” no matter what happens in the Championship Game. Win, and we conclude a great season (Lloyd’s second-best) on a high note, gaining some “media momentum” for next year. And I say bring it on. I want us to finally live up to the hype. I want us to start out at #1 and stay there the entire year. I’m sick of the “we’re better when we’re the underdogs” mentality. Let’s just line up and beat fools. We were able to do it this year, to some extent, and I hope it continues in 2007 (starting on January 1st).

2 – BCS Championship Game
Glendale, AZ
January 8, 2007, Fox, 8:00 p.m.
Ohio State vs. Florida

Not much to say here. The BCS left a bad taste in my mouth, so I won’t be doing much analysis of this game in the coming weeks. I don’t want to read the articles. I don’t care about Tebow, or Laurinaitis, or the other media golden boys. And that’s really a shame, because this could end up being a decent game. Florida has the Defense to keep the score manageable, considering Ohio State had to show some different looks against Michigan. And considering that Percy Harvin is one juke away from a TD every time he gets the ball, the game could be fun to watch. There won’t be a shortage of NFL talent, that’s for sure.

3 – Capital One Bowl
Orlando, FL
January 1, 2007, ABC, 1:00 p.m.
Arkansas vs. Wisconsin

Is Wisconsin really any good? Can Arkansas complete a forward pass thrown by an actual, real-life Quarterback? A second-straight year matching up strong rushing attacks from the Big Ten and SEC. Last year, Wisconsin pounded Auburn in an upset. I think they can do the same here.

4 – Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA
January 3, 2007, Fox, 8:00 p.m.
Notre Dame vs. LSU

Schadenfreude – “Pleasure derived from the misfortunes of others.” Notre Dame hasn’t won a Bowl game since the conclusion of the 1993 season (24-21 over Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl). They’ve played in eight Bowls since then, including a 27-9 loss to LSU in the 1997 Independence Bowl. Here’s to making it nine in a row.

5 – Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL
January 1, 2007, ESPN, 11:00 a.m.
Penn State vs. Tennessee

Higher on my list than it probably should be, primarily because I am hoping to see a Big Ten victory over the SEC. I don’t think it’s going to happen here. When Tennessee is healthy (which they finally will be), they are a Top 10 team.

So I lied. Here are more games I won’t miss, but that’s just because I’m a freak:

6 - Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, NV
December 21, 2006, ESPN, 8:00 p.m.
Oregon vs. BYU

Let the scouting for 2007 begin! Oregon is on next year’s schedule (at Michigan, September 8, 2007), so the die-hards might as well check them out. Plus, they have Ryan Leaf’s brother, so we could get a shot of Leaf on the sideline or something (I expect him to have a full beard and 40 extra pounds). Meanwhile, BYU is 10-2, took Boston College to Overtime, and almost won at Arizona. Dudes are 5 points away from an undefeated season, so I’ll watch. [Game only ranked this high because Oregon plays Michigan next season – Otherwise I’d have it in the low 20s.]

7 – Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX
December 30, 2006, ESPN, 4:30 p.m.
Texas vs. Iowa

Many fans are expecting a Texas blowout, so it’s probably good (for ESPN) that this isn’t the prime-time game on Saturday the 30th. This might be a decent barometer for Ferentz’s coaching skillzzz – Can he keep it close, or has he lost the team?

8 – Chick-fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, GA
December 30, 2006, ESPN, 8:00 p.m.
Virginia Tech vs. Georgia

In any of the past 5 seasons or so, this would have been a much more intriguing match-up. Virginia Tech is probably better than it gets credit for, especially in terms of talent on Defense. But this is the worst Georgia team in recent memory. Wins over Auburn and Georgia Tech can’t erase a home loss to Vanderbilt, a road loss to Kentucky, and a near-loss to Colorado. I put this up at #8, then, simply because I want to see some SEC blood.

9 – Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL
January 1, 2007, CBS, 1:00 p.m.
Georgia Tech vs. West Virginia

Let’s call this the “You Will Hear Our Names When Lloyd Carr Retires” Bowl: Georgia Tech Defensive Coordinator Jon Tenuta tries to slow down Rich Rodriguez’s prolific rushing game. A more interesting match-up might be WVU’s 3-3-5 Defense against a Georgia Tech Offense that has struggled to get All-America WR Calvin Johnson the ball. I’m hoping GT QB Reggie Ball comes to play, because I can’t deal with the WVU hype train for another off-season.

10 – Cotton Bowl
Dallas, TX
January 1, 2007, Fox, 11:30 a.m.
Nebraska vs. Auburn

Can both teams lose? That would be the pareto optimum for the college football world, I feel. The Outback Bowl (Penn State vs. Tennessee), is on at the same time, so just avoid this one (until Tennessee goes up 24-3, that is). Insert Sun Belt Referees joke here.

11 – Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA
December 28, 2006, ESPN, 8:00 p.m.
California vs. Texas A&M

I always love how announcers claim, every year, that the Holiday Bowl will be a great game because “it’s always been high-scoring and wild in past.” They’re independent events, people! That being said, this is gonna be a great game!!! Or not.

12 – Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ
January 1, 2007, Fox, 8:00 p.m.
Oklahoma vs. Boise State

Don’t feel too bad for Oklahoma – They’re going to finish in the Top 10 (maybe even the Top 5, if things fall right). Just don’t try to console Sooner fans, because they were robbed at Oregon, and they gave away the Texas game. A frustrating year ends with a frustrating Bowl opponent. It’s a no-win situation for the Sooners (who should win by a comfortable margin), but they can take solace in the fact that they have a great Head Coach. They’re going to finish with only 2 losses with the equivalent of me at QB.

13 – Orange Bowl
Miami, FL
January 2, 2007, Fox, 8:00 p.m.
Wake Forest vs. Louisville

Should be fun to watch, with lots of big plays and some unconventional Offenses (watch Wake’s RB draws and their weird mis-direction “counter” type of plays). I’m ashamed of myself for having this ranked so low, because these teams are actually good, but come on – it’s Wake Forest and Louisville!

14 – Emerald Bowl
San Francisco, CA
December 27, 2006, ESPN, 8:00 p.m.
UCLA vs. Florida State

Two programs heading in opposite directions? Retire Coach Bowden thinks so, at least regarding the FSU stinks part.

15 – Texas Bowl
Houston, TX
December 28, 2006, NFL Network, 8:00 p.m.
Kansas State vs. Rutgers

You have your greatest season of all time, and you get relegated to a TV station that many people don’t have (NFL Network). Isn’t it a little ironic that James Gandolfini stars in what some have called the greatest TV show of all time (The Sopranos), on a TV station that many people don’t have (HBO), and he graduated from… Rutgers! I smell a conspiracy.

College Football fans might enjoy these games. Most other people won’t:

16 – Champs Sports Bowl
Orlando, FL
December 29, 2006, ESPN, 8:00 p.m.
Purdue vs. Maryland

Is Maryland the Purdue of the ACC? I see some similarities. Discuss amongst yourselves.

17 – Hawaii Bowl
Honolulu, HI
December 24, 2006, ESPN, 8:00 p.m.
Arizona State vs. Hawaii

18 – Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX
December 29, 2006, CBS, 2:00 p.m.
Missouri vs. Oregon State

19 – Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA
December 27, 2006, ESPN, 4:30 p.m.
Oklahoma State vs. Alabama

20 – Insight Bowl
Phoenix, AZ
December 29, 2006, NFL Network, 8:00 p.m.
Minnesota vs. Texas Tech

21 – Meineke Car Care Bowl
Charlotte, NC
December 30, 2006, ESPN2, 1:00 p.m.
Boston College vs. Navy

22 – Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN
December 29, 2006, ESPN, 1:00 p.m.
Kentucky vs. Clemson

23 – Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN
December 29, 2006, ESPN, 4:30 p.m.
Houston vs. South Carolina

I’m only gonna watch if there’s nothing else on:

24 – San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA
December 19, 2006, ESPN2, 8:00 p.m.
TCU vs. Northern Illinois

TCU’s coach, Gary Patterson, could end up in Ann Arbor one day (unlikely, but possible). Might as well tune in to see the deal.

25 – MPC Computers Bowl
Boise, ID
December 30, 2006, ESPN, 7:30 p.m.
Nevada vs. Miami

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. And we thought the Alamo Bowl was bad. The “experts” are thinking that Nevada could pull the upset (would it even be an upset this year?) due to its high-powered, quirky Offense.

8 completely unwatchable Bowls. Not sure why I’m even listing the broadcast info. Please avoid:

26 – Motor City Bowl
Detroit, MI
December 26, 2006, ESPN, 7:30 p.m.
Central Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee

Sorry, CMU. You had a good year, but nobody wants to watch a game involving Middle Tennessee, ever.

27 – Papajohns.com Bowl
Birmingham, AL
December 23, 2006, ESPN2, 1:00 p.m.
East Carolina vs. South Florida

28 – New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA
December 22, 2006, ESPN, 8:00 p.m.
Troy vs. Rice

Rice made a Bowl (sounds funny, on a few levels)! Avoided the lowest possible ranking because both teams are one-syllable schools. How nuts is that?!

29 – International Bowl
Toronto, Canada
January 6, 2007, ESPN, 12:00 p.m.
Western Michigan vs. Cincinnati

30 – Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX
December 23, 2006, ESPN, 8:00 p.m.
Utah vs. Tulsa

31 – GMAC Bowl
Mobile, AL
January 7, 2007, ESPN, 8:00 p.m.
Southern Miss vs. Ohio

32 – New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM
December 23, 2006, ESPN, 4:30 p.m.
New Mexico vs. San Jose State

* All times are Eastern

Looking ahead to next season

2006-12-07T09:19:00.000-05:00

I realize that this season isn’t over, and that we will be playing USC in what many fans are thinking could be a preview of next year’s BCS Championship Game (I hate typing those words). If you’ve read this blog semi-frequently, or if you’re one of my friends (or both!), you know that I’ve been looking forward to 2007 for a long time. I’ll save the unimportant details for a later date, but as of now, here is how I see Michigan Football 2007: Better Offense, worse Defense, worse Special Teams, and a much easier schedule. This could be one of those weird things where the 2006 team is actually better, but the 2007 team runs the table. Primarily because of this:

Sept. 1 Eastern Michigan
Sept. 8 Oregon
Sept. 15 Notre Dame
Sept. 22 Penn State
Sept. 29 @ Northwestern
Oct. 6 Bye (Will be filled with a cupcake at home)
Oct. 13 Purdue (Homecoming)
Oct. 20 @ Illinois
Oct. 27 Minnesota
Nov. 3 @ Michigan State
Nov. 10 @ Wisconsin
Nov. 17 Ohio State

We will probably only have 2 “guaranteed” wins (keeping in mind that I’m more pessimistic than most) – Eastern Michigan and whoever fills the Bye week. Teams like Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota could be terrible, but they could also make Bowl runs. However, I would be surprised if any of them can hang with us. So, that’s 6 of the 12 games.

So here’s where it gets interesting, or maybe not. The other 6 games, “on paper,” just don’t look too tough:

Oregon – Time to (finally) get revenge for 2003. Note that Oregon is the only team on this list that will have a returning QB with both (a) significant playing experience, and (b) an IQ above 17. Let’s hope Oregon wins its Bowl game this year (vs. BYU) and is ranked in the Top 25 next season, because we all know that it’s about the “body of work” when we talk BCS. “Body of work” in the sense that you compare wins and losses, and not the actual scores of the games. Idiots.

Notre Dame – Let the “Beat-down Part III” talk begin. I’m sure plenty of Michigan fans will be talking about 38-0 and 47-21, and hoping for another blowout. Notre Dame loses pretty much every good experienced player on their team, and will be comprised of many good inexperienced players. No more Quinn hype. No more Samardzija hair. No more Zbikowski boxing gloves. Can we destroy these guys again, please?

Penn State – Maybe the IQ jokes about Anthony Morelli are uncalled for, but the guy just isn’t that good. Couple that with the likelihood that he will be peeing his pants when he sees the Michigan DL walk onto the field (Alan Branch, please come back for your Senior year!). I think Penn State might be a good team next year, but if they couldn’t get it done this year, at night, in Happy Valley, why would one think they can win in Ann Arbor (especially once my wire transfer to the refs goes through on September 22nd)?

@ Michigan State – Reasons State could beat us: (1) They don’t have John L. Smith anymore. (2) They don’t have Drew Stanton anymore (0-5 vs. Michigan). Reasons we should beat them: (1) It’s State. (2) They don’t have Drew Stanton anymore.

@ Wisconsin – This will be labeled the “trap game” by many Michigan fans. While Wisconsin loses QB John Stocco, his probable replacement, Tyler Donovan, got some playing time (including the entire Iowa game), and looked more-than-adequate. My fear here is that Wisconsin will lose a few games early in the season, but won’t really be any “worse” than they were this year. Good Defense, good running game, annoying coach. Plus, this one has night game written all over it, and you know how I feel about road night games.

Ohio State – Troy Smith will be gone, and so will Ted Ginn, Jr. (according to Buckeye fans, at least). Now, will Ted Ginn, Sr. provide Tressel with another Terminator from Glenville, Ohio, sent to break Michigan hearts yet again? Let’s hope not. The apparent replacement is Rob Schoenhoft, who threw a TD pass to Mario Manningham in the Big 33 Football Classic. Oh, there will be irony when Manningham catches 3 TDs in this game, and Alan Branch knocks Schoenhoft out (again, Branch, please?!). Yes, it’s still Ohio State. Yes, Tressel pwns Lloyd. But, I mean, come one. Let’s win. Seriously.

So there you have it. 4 of the 6 potential “trouble” games are against teams with new QBs. As you can probably infer, I think replacing a QB is one of the hardest things for a college football team. It might be OK to lose your starting QB when you’ve got Braylon Edwards on your team (see Michigan 2004), but I don’t see any Braylons on the teams listed above. Thus, I really think our schedule looks like a National Title type of schedule. It actually reminds me a lot of the 1997 schedule, in terms of the teams we play at home and on the road, and the order in which we play them.

Certain things will happen in the coming months (injuries, transfers, etc.) that could change my outlook on 2007. But one of the most important elements is already in place – a manageable schedule. If Jake Long comes back (sounds like he might), and Alan Branch follows suit (third time’s the charm!), we could have a very special season ahead of us.

Quick Final Poll Reactions

2006-12-04T09:17:00.000-05:00

Everybody had Michigan and Florida in their Top 3 in the coaches’ poll ballots. I think people realized that voting Michigan #7 would cost them their ballot, credibility, etc. So, yay for that.

- Texas’, Texas Tech’s, and TCU’s coaches all voted Michigan #2, which I found odd. Not sure if that is significant. Some might argue “they know their football in Texas!,” but it might just be an anomaly. FWIW, Texas A&M’s coach voted Florida #2.

- Speaking of TCU, Head Coach Gary Patterson and (soon-to-be former) CMU coach Brian Kelly, who have been mentioned as possible future Michigan Head Coaches, voted Michigan #2. Another “name” that has been tossed around, Jeff Tedford, had Florida at #2.

- Charlie Weis had Michigan at #2. Biggest idiot = Ron Zook, who was run out of Gainesville, and who coaches in the Big Ten now (Illinois), voting Florida #2. So much for sticking up for your conference.

FYI, here are the final Harris Poll ballots (the other human poll in the BCS). I haven’t looked at every ballot, but the final numbers were very similar to the coaches’ poll. Also, Earle Bruce (former OSU coach) voted Florida #2. Another piece of evidence that OSU folks would rather play Florida (because, you know, they’re not as good as Michigan).

In related news: Lloyd Carr is the man (did I really just say that?!).

The Corporation says it's USC Florida, and it will be USC Florida

2006-12-03T18:46:00.000-05:00

Wow. So much to say, but I can't deal right now. If you're still holding out hope - don't. It's Florida. I'm not saying that's right, I'm just saying that's what it is.

I apologize to my (few) loyal readers for my absence. I went back to Michigan for a surprise birthday thingy, and I couldn't give you any notice beforehand. I will be back with more soon, provided The Man doesn't keep me down at work this week.

The Corporation says it’s USC, and it will be USC

2006-11-26T17:05:00.000-05:00

I feel almost exactly how I felt after watching The Corporation: a little angry, albeit a bit resigned. If you haven’t seen this documentary, I highly recommend it. I’m not the most “liberal” person, but it makes some good points that nobody in their right mind can deny. Anyway, after trashing corporations for 90 minutes or so, Michael Moore (love him or hate him) chimes in with an appropriate summary. He says something to the effect of: “This movie is being distributed by a corporation. Why would they want to release something that paints them (corporations) in such a bad light? Because they will make money off of it, and because they don’t think we (the people) will stand up and do anything about it.”

The BCS, the college presidents, the NCAA, the Bowls, the TV companies – they are The Corporation. They run an inherently flawed, money-making machine, and there’s not much we can do to make them change their ways. There is something we can do to make them re-think things. Stop watching. Stop going. But we won’t do that. We will watch OSU-USC, because it will be a very good game. We will watch Michigan in the Rose Bowl, because we love Michigan. The Corporation will make a record haul, as it does almost every year. Some of us fans will feel satisfied, many of us won’t. But we’ll all come back again next season.

I guess I’m just a bit frustrated by the mantra that was repeated all day yesterday: “The experts say that if USC wins out, they will be #2 in the BCS.” I heard a lot of that, but I didn’t hear many reasons why. It’s funny how things change in just a week. Last week, we had all the talking heads discussing a Michigan-OSU rematch, with many in favor of one. This week? Out of sight, out of mind. USC had the stage, and we were yesterday’s news. As a member of "the ADD generation," I shouldn’t be surprised, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t sting a little. I still think Michigan is the 2nd-best team in the country, and that we would beat USC on a neutral field. But there’s no playoff, so we’ll never know.

Things might change one day, but it won’t be because the SEC gets left out of another BCS Championship Game, or because the College Gameday crew goes on a 45-minute tirade against the BCS. Things will change when The Corporation figures out how to make more money by having a playoff. Until then, enjoy (or don’t)!

Shifting gears – Some bowl predictions. Here’s how I expect things to go:

BCS Championship: OSU (BCS #1) vs. USC (BCS #2)

Rose Bowl: Michigan (BCS guaranteed at-large (Top 4 BCS)) vs. LSU (BCS at-large (possibly guaranteed if Florida loses))

Sugar Bowl: Florida/Arkansas winner (SEC Champion) vs. Notre Dame (BCS at-large)

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma/Nebraska winner (Big 12 Champion) vs. Boise State (BCS guaranteed at-large (Top 12 BCS from non-BCS conference))

Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech/Wake Forest winner (ACC Champion) vs. Rutgers/Louisville/West Virginia (Big East Champion)

- Things might change if Florida loses to Arkansas. Then, would the BCS committee(s) select the “hot” team in the Top 5 (LSU), or the team that beat them, but is coming off of a loss (Florida)? It seems “fair” to take Florida, but we all know this system is anything but “fair.” LSU might even get a guaranteed BCS bid in this scenario, by finishing in the Top 4 of the BCS. Regardless, it is clear that the Big Ten gets 2 bids, the SEC gets 2 bids, and the other “majors” just get 1 each. Boise State crashes the party and makes the Fiesta Bowl committee cry, again. Remember that Pitt-Utah Fiesta Bowl after the 2004 season? This year’s version might be even less interesting.

- I don’t want a rematch against Notre Dame. Is there anything good that could come out of that? If we win by 1 point, 30 points, or somewhere in-between, people shrug their shoulders and say “meh.” If we lose, we look like a bunch of idiots. And a loss to ND would be possible. I mean, how motivated/interested do you think the Michigan players would be under those circumstances? Not very, I would imagine. Besides, is there anyone that wants to see that game?

- I think LSU should play in the Rose Bowl (sorry, Florida (if you lose, that is)). If USC beats UCLA, Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl (not guaranteed, but likely). LSU would be the ideal opponent. Les Miles is a former assistant to Bo Schembechler. Michigan and LSU have never met. And both teams would be ranked in the Top 5, making this clearly the “second best” BCS game this season. If USC loses to UCLA, USC goes to the Rose Bowl automatically (Pac-10 champion). A USC-LSU Rose Bowl would give LSU their shot at “revenge” for the 2003 season, where they had to split the National Championship with USC. A rematch of USC-ND would be almost as terrible as a Michigan-ND rematch. Put LSU in the Rose Bowl, and keep Notre Dame as far away as possible.

Happy Thanksgiving

2006-11-23T10:45:00.000-05:00

Have a great weekend. If you're on the rematch bandwagon, here are some rooting guidelines for the games this week:

Friday at 2:30 Eastern on CBS:
LSU over Arkansas (not necessary, but might end up helping a bit)

Also on Friday afternoon, for some BCS computer points:
Central Michigan over Buffalo
Ball State over Kent State

Saturday at Noon Eastern on ABC:
Florida State over Florida (more important than an Arkansas loss, but not 100% critical)

Saturday at 8 PM Eastern on ABC:
Notre Dame over USC (the most important game, by far)

I can't believe I have to root for a Notre Dame victory. That's a great way to make myself nauseous before Thanksgiving dinner. Anyway, enjoy the weekend - make sure to give thanks for Bo, for Michigan, and for college football in general.

Still processing

2006-11-20T12:01:00.000-05:00

I watched The Game over at a friend’s place (thanks, MS), and as I walked home with my girlfriend, she asked me how I was feeling a few times. I kept telling her that I was still processing everything, and I think I still am. I avoided the internet all day yesterday – No need for the "fire Carr" stuff (although I was happy to see very little of that). I just did a full message board scan, and I’m planning on re-watching The Game a few times this week.

I’ll just mention 3 plays that are forever burned into my memory:

1 – "The overthrow" to Mario. Blame the poor turf, blame Henne, blame God. That would have given us another 1st Quarter TD, and would have changed the face of the game.

2 – Stopped on a 3rd-and-1 run in the 2nd Quarter. I’m starting to hate the Zone Stretch on 3rd-and-1.

3 – "The penalty" on Crable. It was probably the right call. If that was Henne as the QB, I’d be screaming for the penalty. But that was just a game-killer. We would have had the ball back, down 4, with a chance to score a potential game-winning TD.

I still think Michigan is the 2nd-best team in the country, but I won’t melt down if we don’t get a rematch. More on that at a later date. For now, I’ve still gotta process some thoughts.

The Game linkfest

2006-11-17T09:06:00.000-05:00

Bigger and (I hope) better than usual. There were so many Michigan-OSU stories this week, I had to pare them down to make this post manageable. Enjoy The Game. Go Blue!...

General info:

#2 Michigan (11-0, 7-0 Big Ten) @ #1 Ohio State (11-0, 7-0 Big Ten)
Game Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
Game Location: Ohio Stadium (101,568 capacity)
Field Surface: Grass
Weather Forecast
Television Coverage: Nationwide on ABC. HD broadcast in 720p on ABC HD.
Local Ann Arbor Area Radio Coverage: WOMC-FM (104.3), CKLW-AM (800), WTKA-AM (1050)
Satellite Radio Coverage: Sirius Satellite Radio – Channel 130 (Michigan announcers)
Other Radio Affiliates
All-Time Series: U-M leads 57-39-6
Series History (PDF)
Current Streak: OSU 2 straight wins
Line: The line opened at Ohio State by 7, and quickly moved to Ohio State by 6.5. It has stayed at OSU by 6.5.

Related stuff:

MGoBlue.com: "Game Notes," including Depth Chart (PDF)

MGoBlue.com: Press conference quotes: Lloyd Carr; Offensive Players; Defensive Players; Bo Schembechler

MGoBlue.com: The Biggest “Big Game” (tons of info here)

MGoBlue.com: 2006 Michigan Football Bust

MGoBlue.com: Carr named Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year Finalist

MGoBlue.com: Breaston named Big Ten Player of the Week

MGoBlue.com: Hart named to Walter Camp Player of the Year List

MGoBlue.com: Hart named Doak Walker Award Semifinalist

MGoBlue.com: Hall named Finalist for Bronko Nagurski Trophy

The Detroit News: For OSU, it’ll be spit, beer & tears

The Detroit News: Too perfect: Big rivalry keeps getting bigger

The Detroit News: What happens to the loser?

The Detroit News: Buckeye Punks

The Detroit News: Clash of the titans

The Detroit News: Wolverines braced for hostility

The Detroit News: There can only be One

The Detroit News: Top Defense? (Is OSU’s better than U-M’s?)

The Detroit News: Final exam

The Detroit News: Bo is ready for Ohio State

The Detroit News: Leading the charge (Henne)

The Detroit News: Loser shouldn’t get shot at title

The Detroit News: Tales from Columbus (Eddie George’s restaurant)

The Detroit News: LaMarr Woodley is U-M’s equalizer

The Detroit News: Former Lion Spielman is not a traitor

The Detroit News: Big game report

The Detroit News: Michigan: Keys to the game

The Detroit News: Ohio State: Keys to the game

The Detroit News: Ex-Wolverine lives as a “traitor” (Marcus Ray)

The Detroit News: U-M’s “other” cornerback could make the difference

The Detroit News: Studious, speedy Gonzalez enjoys exploiting weaknesses

The Detroit News: Take trip to Columbus, but do watch your back

The Detroit News: Security is tight in Columbus

The Detroit News: Behind enemy lines (Michigan fans living in Ohio)

SI.com: State of Michigan

SI.com: Proper English

SI.com: Gearing up for The Game

CBSsportsline.com: As coach Tressel wins, Tressel’s “Teflon” armor gets stronger

ESPN.com: Gamebreakers: Manningham vs. Ginn

ESPN.com: From the sound of it, Ufer remains a Wolverine legend

ESPN.com: Schembechler not in favor of BCS rematch

ESPN.com: Woodley, Wolverines aim to prove defense wins titles

ESPN.com: Ginn, Breaston have chance to exceed expectations

ESPN.com: Michigan films offer proof of Smith’s big-game status

ESPN.com: More confident Henne embraces leadership role

BuckeyeXtra.com: Traitors

"They’ll toilet paper my yard in Blacklick," [former Michigan DB Jeff] Reeves said with a laugh. "I know they will. That’s OK, I’m fine with it. It’s about class. Michigan fans have class. Ohio State fans have a one-track mind: football and drinking beer. Win or lose, those idiots will tear up the city."

What's left to say?

2006-11-16T15:58:00.001-05:00

When I started this blog in the Spring, I remember looking forward to this week. I was confident that The Game would provide me with many opportunities for analysis, commentary, and general B.S. Fast-forward about 8 months, and my posting frequency is static. The magnitude of this game has turned me into an idiot. Last night I put a box of Triscuits in the fridge, and I’m sure I’ve forgotten somebody’s birthday (sorry, whoever you are). My IQ has dropped about 26 points, so I’ve spared you any incoherent ramblings (until now).

Fortunately, I’ve been very busy at work (never thought I’d say that!). While my work product has suffered, at least the week isn’t dragging. And I’m somewhat comforted by the fact that everything that needs to be said has already been said. Actually, nothing really needs to be said. It’s like a classic boxing match, where both fighters are men that “need no introduction.” But, seriously, everything has been said. While compiling the “linkfest” that I do for each game, I had to separate the wheat from the chaff in order to avoid a “Longest. Post. Ever.” distinction.

Two days from now, all of the worry, speculation, predictions, and hype will be over. Games like this don’t happen very often, so I hope you enjoy it. Despite my temporary insanity, I know I will. Go Blue!

Stuff you might have missed

2006-11-14T10:26:00.000-05:00

- We have three Big East teams in the Top 10. It’s the 12th week of the season, and we have three Big East teams in the Top 10. It’s called “back-loading,” and it’s not just for pickup trucks anymore.

- You go, Lloyd!

”Nobody's talking about why, but after University of Michigan football coach Lloyd Carr finished taping interviews for Saturday's game against Ohio State with ABC Sports Monday, he came storming out of the Michigan locker room irate and loudly complaining about the direction the questioning had taken.

Carr uttered several profanities and left in his car after ordering Dave Ablauf, assistant director of media relations, to go back and address his concerns with the television crew.

Ablauf and ABC officials refused to discuss the incident afterward.”

Gotta think that this has something to do with the interviewer(s) asking about: (1) Kirk Herbstreit’s comments about Steve Breaston being ”worthless” (in our Offense, apparently), and/or (2) Carr’s record against Jim Tressel (possibly involving a knock on John Cooper, which Lloyd would not have stood for).

- An award has been named after Randy Moss. For real. Despite the obvious stuff, isn’t it a bit odd to name a Division I-A award after a guy that played in Division I-AA, and was playing college football less than 10 years ago? It’s kinda like those dudes that have Dwyane Wade “throwback” jerseys. Sweet!!

- Michigan students have been getting this e-mail today. I went to The Game in 2000, and OSU fans really weren’t that bad. But I get the feeling that due to their recent success, they are getting out of hand. I’ve read too many horror stories in recent years, and apparently the OSU administration is taking note. Anyway, here’s the e-mail:

“We know that it can be uncomfortable being in an opposing team's environment, especially when the stakes are so high. We would like to offer a few suggestions in order to help you stay safe and have a positive experience this weekend:

--Try carpooling to the game; if possible, drive a car with non- Michigan license plates.
--Keep your Michigan gear to a minimum, or wait until you are inside the stadium to display it.
--Stay with a group.
--Know and obey the laws regarding alcohol use.
--If you are of legal age to drink, use alcohol in moderation. Stay in the blue.
--Stay low-key; don't draw unnecessary attention to yourself.
--If verbally harassed by opposing fans, don't take the bait.
--Avoid High Street in Columbus.

If at any time you feel unsafe, you should call 9-1-1 for assistance. U-M campus police also will be available in Columbus to support our fans. You may call them with non-emergency concerns at (734) 216-9159.

We look forward to a tremendous game on Saturday. Let's help the Wolverines win with spirit and class."

DVR alert

2006-11-13T15:41:00.000-05:00

ESPN Classic is showing two handfuls worth of Michigan-Ohio State games this week. Note that some are condensed to two hours, while others are extremely shortened to just one. All times are Eastern:

Tuesday, 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM: Ohio State @ Michigan, 1969 (Michigan wins, 24-12)

Tuesday, 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM: Ohio State @ Michigan, 1987 (OSU wins, 23-20)

Wednesday, 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM: Michigan @ Ohio State, 1974 (OSU wins, 12-10)

Wednesday, 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM: Ohio State @ Michigan, 1995 (Michigan wins, 31-23)

Thursday, 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM: Ohio State @ Michigan, 1997 (Michigan wins, 20-14)

Thursday, 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM: Michigan @ Ohio State, 1996 (Michigan wins, 13-9)

Friday, 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM: Michigan @ Ohio State, 2002 (OSU wins, 14-9)

Friday, 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM: Ohio State @ Michigan, 2003 (Michigan wins, 35-21)

Friday, 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM: Michigan @ Ohio State, 1988 (Michigan wins, 34-31)

Friday, 5:00 PM – 7:00 PM: Ohio State @ Michigan, 2005 (OSU wins, 25-21)

It’s Ohio State week

2006-11-13T09:53:00.000-05:00

And it could, and maybe should, be Ohio State week again starting on New Year’s Day.

After a crazy weekend filled with upsets, a Michigan-Ohio State rematch seems much more possible. I think I’ll save my “in depth” comments about this until after The Game, but I just want to comment on some people’s logic (or lack thereof). For instance, Lee Corso said this weekend that there could/should only be a rematch if Ohio State lost. Apparently his reasoning was something like “Ohio State has been #1 all year, so they would deserve another shot.” So, proponents of that theory, you have Lee Corso on your side. It seems like people are forgetting that this game is in Columbus. If Michigan loses a close game, how can you not stop and think, “I wonder who would have won on a neutral field?” Oh, and by the way, Michigan’s only loss in that scenario would have been on the road against the unanimous #1 team. USC lost at Oregon State (huh?), Florida lost at Auburn (and really should have lost at home to South Carolina), and Notre Dame… who beat them? That’s right – Michigan. In South Bend. By 26. Arkansas is a good team, but they lost 50(!)-14 at home to USC (not to mention barely escaping Vandy and Alabama). Don’t even get me started on Rutgers.

The whole “you must drop a few spots in the polls because you lost late in the season” logic is a joke. Seriously, is there anybody out there that doesn’t think Michigan and Ohio State are the Top 2 teams in the country? Then why would a loss by one to the other change that? “People don’t like rematches?” Too bad! Michigan and Ohio State both deserve one (Michigan more so than OSU, in my opinion). Other teams might have impressive victories in the coming weeks, but they can’t change the one important thing that has already happened: their losses. Michigan and Ohio State both have some quality wins under their belts, and one of them will have another this Saturday. But the one thing that the loser will have, that the other one-loss BCS contenders won’t have, is a quality loss. That’s right, a quality loss. I hate to go all NCAA Tournament Selection Committee on you, but it’s true.

If The Game is fairly close, I think a rematch is justified, and then some. There, I said it.

Indiana game linkfest

2006-11-10T08:34:00.000-05:00

General info:

#2 Michigan (10-0, 6-0 Big Ten) @ Indiana (5-5, 3-3 Big Ten)
Game Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
Game Location: Memorial Stadium (52,180 capacity)
Field Surface: AstroPlay
Weather Forecast
Television Coverage: Nationwide on ESPN. HD broadcast in 720p on ESPN HD.
Local Ann Arbor Area Radio Coverage: WOMC-FM (104.3), CKLW-AM (800), WTKA-AM (1050)
Satellite Radio Coverage: Sirius Satellite Radio – Channel 144 (Michigan announcers)
Other Radio Affiliates: Click here
All-Time Series: U-M leads 49-9
Current Streak: U-M 14 straight wins
Line: The line opened at Michigan by 19, and has stayed there.

Related stuff:

MGoBlue.com: "Game Notes," including Depth Chart (PDF)

MGoBlue.com: Press conference quotes: Lloyd Carr; Players

MGoBlue.com: Woodley named Finalist for 37th Lombardi Award

MGoBlue.com: Hall named Thorpe Award Semifinalist

MGoBlue.com: Henne named Semifinalist for the Davey O’Brien Award

MGoBlue.com: Rivas voted Big Ten Special Teams Player of the Week

The Detroit News: English to MSU is OK with Carr

The Detroit News: Michigan: Keys to the game

The Detroit News: Conditioning put to test

The Post-Standard (Syracuse, NY paper): Hart belongs to us

The Detroit Free Press: Success is due to veteran’s taking charge

The Detroit Free Press: U-M players motivated

The Detroit Free Press: Trick or Treat? Carr can put on a good face, too

The Detroit Free Press: Election changes stadium dynamic

The Detroit Free Press: Graham glad to go home (Chris, not Brandon)

The Michigan Daily: ’Brick’ to hit hard at home (more Chris Graham)

The Michigan Daily: Under radar, Rivas reaches record

The Michigan Daily: Lewis, Hoosiers could scare ‘M’

The Michigan Daily: Blue one away from Bucks (match-ups vs. Indiana)

Ann Arbor News: Michigan’s secondary awaits tests

The Sports Network’s Prediction

Rivals.com Indiana Message Board

Scout.com Indiana Message Board

Week 10 CFB thoughts

2006-11-07T10:26:00.000-05:00

- Who woulda thunk that Miami at Maryland would be a “big” game this year? Big in the sense that Maryland can win the ACC Atlantic Division, and that Miami is trying to avoid going 6-6 (with their remaining games at Maryland, at Virginia, and vs. Boston College). Wherever Miami goes for a bowl game, they could set a record for fewest tickets sold. This is their worst season in a long time, 99% of Miami fans want Coker fired, and Miami fans don’t travel well anyway. Seriously, does somebody keep track of things like this? They might play in the MPC Computers Bowl against San Jose State!

- FYI: “Tailback Mike Hart's streak of consecutive carries without a fumble lost remains intact thanks to a NCAA rule. Hart fumbled against Ball State, which resulted in a first-quarter safety. But because the safety led to Michigan retaining possession and punting, the fumble cannot be classified as a fumble for loss. Hart has now had 688 straight carries without a fumble.”

- Louisville-WVU ended up being what I thought it might be: Lots of offense and plenty of sloppiness. Unfortunately, that’s just the type of game that the mainstream media seems to enjoy. They see high scores and think “that’s exciting football.” I see high scores and think “where’s the D?” So now Louisville sits at #3 in the BCS. I’m not sure if somebody can pass them, either, since the Computers and the Humans seem to be working against each other, so to speak. For instance, the Humans have Cal 9th, but the Computers have them 4th. The Humans have Texas 3rd or 4th, the Computers have them 10th. There just isn’t a “solid #4 team” out there under the BCS formula, and it might help Louisville get into the BCS Championship Game. It’s kind of like how Nader took votes away from Gore in 2000. Cal is going to take Computer votes away from Florida, assuming both win out, and neither will make it up to #2.

- On a related note, a Michigan-OSU rematch is not impossible, yet. I think that if Louisville wins out, Louisville would be ahead of the Michigan-OSU loser after November 18th. But if Louisville loses, anything can happen. The Computers love Michigan and OSU. In fact, Michigan is #1 in the Computer average this week, and might not be punished too severely for a loss at Ohio State. The key, still, is how the other 1-loss teams fare in the coming weeks. If crazy stuff happens, Human voters will be forced to keep the loser of Michigan-OSU ranked at #3 or somewhere pretty high. Remember – Notre Dame and Texas just don’t have good arguments for jumping over Michigan and Ohio State, respectively. If they keep winning while other teams start losing, things could get nuts.

- If you missed the end of the first half of the PSU-Wisconsin game, it might be worth your time to read this summary. I’m still torn on how I feel about it, but it’s clear that the rule will be changed to prevent this type of thing in the future.

Post-Ball State thoughts

2006-11-06T15:08:00.000-05:00

I was one of the “lucky” Michigan fans that actually saw the game on TV this weekend. Maybe not so lucky, since I had flashbacks to the Herrmann era.

- Brandon Minor will be pretty good in our system. The only complaint I have (for now) is that he tends to get tackled too easily. I’m sure I’m just spoiled by Hart, but Minor doesn’t look like a 3rd-and-1 type of back. Comparisons to Tyrone Wheatley are a bit much, but he does have that long stride and is a bit faster than he looks. He just isn’t “Wheatley in the 1993 Rose Bowl” fast.

- I wish I had this one on tape, because I think Chris Graham struggled a bit. Prescott Burgess went out with an (ankle?) injury in the 1st Quarter, and Graham appeared to make a few bad reads. But, no tape review, so don’t quote me on that.

- Manningham didn’t do anything. I think he was in for 8 plays or so, and I’m pretty sure all of them were passes (maybe one run). They tried to go deep to him once on a straight fly route, but the corner was playing 15 yards off of him at the snap, so it was futile. A few other plays seemed to be designed to go to him specifically, but none of them worked. In hindsight, it almost cost Michigan dearly – they’re trying to get Mario back into the groove against a crappy team, probably not caring too much about the incompletions. Then said crappy team realizes that they can actually score points after Michigan punts.

- Brandon Harrison seems to be this year’s “bad angle taker.” He’s actually not that bad when the ball’s in the air, but if a player is running with the ball, he seems to find a way to miss him. This game it was not just bad angles, but over-pursuit and shoddy tackling that led to more yards after the catch.

- Mesko is looking average on more and more punts. Once in a while he hits a boomer, but otherwise he’s kicking ducks out there. I read something recently about him changing his punting method, and I think that is the “problem.” But I also think that Lloyd wants him to kick ducks and not out-kick his coverage. This might be especially true against OSU and Ted Ginn (not giving him room to get a head of steam).

- It wasn’t as close as the score. Look at the statistics, and you’ll see that we should have won by more. And it should be noted that we had more than a handful of reserves on Defense during Ball State’s “comeback.” But, it should be a wake-up call for the OSU game. They (and Indiana, for that matter) will go deep on us, and we need to be able to stop it with consistency.

- The drops by receivers are getting old, fast. Arrington and Butler had key drops that cut short drives in the 2nd Half. Breaston dropped a catchable ball in the end zone, and we settled for a Field Goal.

Ball State game linkfest

2006-11-03T08:53:00.000-05:00

General info:

Ball State (3-6, 3-3 MAC) @ #2 Michigan (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten)
Game Time: 12:00 Noon Eastern
Game Location: Michigan Stadium
Field Surface: FieldTurf
Weather Forecast
Television Coverage: Nationwide on ESPNU (if you get ESPNU, that is). No HD broadcast.
Local Ann Arbor Area Radio Coverage: WOMC-FM (104.3), CKLW-AM (800), WTKA-AM (1050)
Satellite Radio Coverage: Sirius Satellite Radio – Channel 147 (Michigan announcers)
Other Radio Affiliates: Click here
Line: The line opened at Michigan by 33.5 and moved to Michigan by 34 by the end of the week.

Related stuff:

MGoBlue.com: "Game Notes," including Depth Chart (PDF)

MGoBlue.com: Press conference quotes: Lloyd Carr; Players

MGoBlue.com: Woodley named MCS Defensive Player of the Week

The Detroit News: TV sacks MSU, U-M Saturday football

The Detroit News: Jackson is almost gone, not forgotten

The Detroit News: Will U-M face Ohio State in title game? Not likely

The Detroit News: Receiver might be back soon (Manningham)

The Detroit News: Herbstreit rips U-M on radio

The Detroit News: Mesko gets kick out of America

The Detroit News: Michigan: Keys to the game

The Detroit Free Press: Hail, again?

The Detroit Free Press: Carr used film as motivator

The Detroit Free Press: U-M Talking Points: Offense thrown off balance

The Detroit Free Press: U-M punter has come a long way (more Mesko)

The Detroit Free Press: Arrington’s hearing adjourned till Nov. 15

The Michigan Daily: David is Goliath (David Harris)

The Michigan Daily: Big House welcomes unfamiliar MAC foe

The Michigan Daily: Wake up: ‘M’ deserves better

Ann Arbor News: The Game could become The Games

The Sports Network’s Prediction

BSUFans.com’s Message Board

Some Week 9 CFB thoughts

2006-11-01T09:21:00.000-05:00

- Pollsters that have Louisville above teams like Florida and Tennessee must be crazy. That, or they missed Louisville’s awesome victory at home against Cincinnati (which required a broken-up pass in the endzone to preserve the win). Beating the worst Miami team in the last quarter-century doesn’t mean you’re Top 5 material. The WVU-Louisville game on Thursday night should be a good one… fun to watch, if nothing else. And since it will likely be a high-scoring, entertaining game, people will push for the winner to play for the National Title. But these teams wouldn’t win any other “major” conference. Look me in the eye (figuratively, of course) and tell me that you think either WVU or Louisville could beat Florida, the team that they might shut out of the BCS Championship game. Ya, didn’t think so.

- The Big 12 North continues its quest to keep the title of “Worst Division in College Football.” Nebraska and Missouri were both beaten pretty handily this past week, and one of them is going to win that division. Zero teams ranked in the AP and BCS polls – nice!

- So Georgia Tech is in the ACC Championship game. Not officially, but it only needs two wins in its next three games. The opponents: N.C. State, North Carolina, and Duke. Their most likely opponent in the ACC Championship is either Boston College or Wake Forest (who play each other this week). How weird is the ACC this year?

- You might have heard of markmaybewrong before, but if you haven’t, it’s worth perusing. The “goal” is to hold college football talking heads accountable for their picks, see who “knows” the most, and find out how we (the average fans) stack up against the “experts.”

Off-Topic Tuesday: Jagshemash!

2006-10-31T10:00:00.000-05:00

So we’re playing Ball State on Saturday. Let’s talk about something else:

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve heard of Borat. In the news nearly every day for the last month, including "denunciations by officials in Kazakhstan and an organization of German gypsies," Sacha Baron Cohen’s brainchild has his own movie coming out on Friday. Go see it. I have been anxiously awaiting this movie since I heard about it about a year ago, and I’m even more excited now that my girlfriend lived in Kazakhstan for four months (no, really!). The fact that "The middle of the country is not in on the Borat joke yet," and Fox is only opening the movie on about 800 screens makes me sad, but is not surprising. Thanks, average American! Because of you, we get sweet sitcoms with John Lithgow and 872 CSI knock-offs!

Just go see the movie.

Optimist/Pessimist: Looking towards the OSU game

2006-10-30T09:33:00.000-05:00

Optimist:

The Defense is unreal. They’ve held two opponents with decent RBs (Tony Hunt, Tyrell Sutton) to negative yards rushing. Yes, sacks are included in that calculation, but guess what that means? We’re sacking QBs like it’s going out of style! We’re 4th in the country in Sacks. The Offense doesn’t have to be explosive, and it isn’t “built” to be explosive – it’s built to win games. Hart keeps running into stacked lines, but by the 3rd or 4th Quarter, he’s gaining more and more yards and sealing games. We’re wearing defenses down. Field position, Time of Possession, protecting the ball: these are things that we don’t like to hear Lloyd talk about, but apparently they’ve helped us win games. We’re #2 in TOP, #4 in Turnover Margin, and we’ve had more punts downed inside the 20 than I can ever remember. And, by the way, we’re 9-0. We only take our shots when we need to. Otherwise, we’ve avoided putting our Defense in bad positions. And the few times that we have put the Defense in a bind, they’ve come through with big play after big play. In case you didn’t notice, the game at Indiana will be a good tune-up for Ohio State: Mobile QB, excellent receiver, road game. Manningham and the TEs will be back, and we’ll be ready for OSU. Read this and you’ll realize that DeBord will know what to do against the Buckeyes, just like he did against Notre Dame.

Pessimist:

Run left, run left, Breaston drop, punt. Ugh. Can we throw on first down more than once a week? The play-calling is so predictable and it is putting Hart in serious danger of injury – might as well throw him to the sharks. If he goes down, get ready for fumble-fest 2006 from the backups, a group that can only find a running lane by accident, but certainly knows how to stumble forward without being touched. The OL is getting worse every game – how bad is it when you’re hoping Rueben Riley can get healthy ASAP? And back to Breaston, is he ever going to wake up? Muffed punts, key drops, weak kick returns. You’re a 5th-year Senior! Time of Possession means nothing (really), and it won’t help us against OSU. We need to score points, brother! We’re injured at too many key positions, and not having Mario and our TEs in a rhythm (or at full health) for the OSU game is going to kill us. Sure, our Defense is good, but the OSU WRs are going to burn Trent, Sears, and anybody else not named “Leon Hall.” We can’t win a shoot-out. Our 3rd-Down Conversion Percentage is 61st in the nation. 61st! We can’t pick up 3rd-and-2s to save our lives. Forget OSU, we’re losing to Indiana.

My take:

Both “sides” here have many valid points, and I probably fall somewhere in-between the two. I hate Time of Possession – I want points scored. My mantra while watching Michigan games is always “Touchdowns, not Field Goals.” The 2002 OSU game is an excellent example of why I utter those words while asleep. However, this Defense is great, so my hope is that they will play well at OSU, and DeBord will find a way to put up some points. Michigan generally plays well against OSU as an underdog. We don’t always win, but we tend to have decent gameplans that are more aggressive. When we’re a prohibitive favorite (1999, 2001, 2004), we often come out flat and “play not to lose.” I don’t know if we’ll beat Ohio State, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

Northwestern game linkfest

2006-10-27T13:15:00.000-04:00

General info:

Northwestern (2-6, 0-4 Big Ten) @ #2 AP / #3 Coaches / #2 BCS Michigan (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten)
Game Time: 12:00 Noon Eastern
Game Location: Michigan Stadium
Field Surface: FieldTurf
Weather Forecast (Kinda windy?)
Television Coverage: Nationwide on ESPN. HD broadcast in 720p on ESPN HD.
Local Ann Arbor Area Radio Coverage: WOMC-FM (104.3), CKLW-AM (800), WTKA-AM (1050)
Satellite Radio Coverage: Sirius Satellite Radio – Channel 123 (Michigan announcers)
Other Radio Affiliates: Click here
Line: The line opened at Michigan by 32.5, but quickly moved down to Michigan by 30, and has stayed there. A few books have it as high as Michigan by 34, though, still.

Related stuff:

MGoBlue.com: "Game Notes," including Depth Chart (PDF)

MGoBlue.com: Press conference quotes: Lloyd Carr; Players

MGoBlue.com: Football Quartet Semifinalists for Maxwell Club Awards (Henne, Hart, Woodley and Carr)

ESPN.com: Old-fashioned football at heart of Michigan’s change

The Detroit News: Is Hart Heisman material?

The Detroit News: Arrington’s status unclear

The Detroit News: U-M: Two-minute drill

The Detroit News: Hot seats: U-M, OSU tickets hit $4,270

The Detroit News: Kraus thrives despite adversity

The Detroit Free Press: U-M success begins with quarterback

The Detroit Free Press: Bo watches game at hospital

The Detroit Free Press: Hart: The next three games toughest

The Detroit Free Press: U-M’s Butler holding tight

The Detroit Free Press: When call comes, Rivas always ready

The Detroit Free Press: Arrington court date is Nov. 1

The Detroit Free Press: Buckeyes, Michigan could play twice

The Detroit Free Press: 30-point underdog at No. 2 Michigan

The Michigan Daily: Rocking the Crable

The Michigan Daily: Wolverines prepared to dominate Northwestern

The Michigan Daily: Fitzgerald returns to Big House

The Michigan Daily: Left Guard stays strong (more Kraus)

The Michigan Daily: What’s the real stadium capacity?

Ann Arbor News: U-M’s Butler relishes opportunity as starter

Associated Press: Michigan’s Rivas says he’s ready for a game-winning field goal (more Rivas)

The Sports Network’s Prediction

Rivals.com Northwestern Message Board

Stooping to new lows.

2006-10-26T10:31:00.000-04:00

What’s up with Columbus, their cops, and their insane news "reporters?" First, some turds reported that Prescott Burgess had committed to Ohio State, just a day or two before he announced for Michigan. Now, 4 years later, Fox 28 is reporting that he (allegedly) stole some CDs when he was 14 (I guess he lived in that craptastic city for a little bit). But get this... there has been an arrest warrant issued for Burgess! Charges have not been filed, yet, as that decision is up to ~~Jim Tressel~~ the Franklin County prosecutors office. Umm, wuh? No statute of limitations? Nothing better to do? Fresh out of bomb-sniffing dogs? This is unreal.

3 quick CFB things

2006-10-25T09:25:00.000-04:00

- Is this not one of the worst Heisman races ever? I think Troy Smith will probably win, and deservedly so, but it’s not like everybody is in awe of the guy. And couple that with the fact that the rest of the field is average, and it’s a really boring year for Heisman debates. Maybe somebody (Hart? Henne?) will put on a show in the remaining games, but I’m not expecting much debate (or excitement) this December.

- Texas A&M could be the worst 7-1 team in the history of 7-1 teams. Their resume:

Sep 2 The Citadel W 35-3
Sep 9 Louisiana-Lafayette W 51-7
Sep 16 Army W 28-24 (needed a last-minute goal-line stand to win)
Sep 23 Louisiana Tech W 45-14
Sep 30 Texas Tech L 27-31
Oct 7 @ Kansas W 21-18
Oct 14 Missouri W 25-19 (benefited from the idiotic “fumble thru endzone = touchback” rule)
Oct 21 @ Oklahoma State W 34-33 (Overtime)

- Need another reason to "strongly dislike" Charlie Weis and Notre Dame?

Q. What's your reaction to after a win you drop one in the AP Poll, two in the Coach Poll, one in the BCS?

Charlie Weis: Well, the things that surprise me are in that situation - I'll just cite a couple of them, like one of the teams that jumped us [Tennessee] had the same game that we had. Another down, they're playing at home, they're down and they win by a field goal. Another team that jumped us [Florida] wasn't even playing. They're sitting at home eating cheeseburgers, and they ended up jumping us. So that befuddles me.

We go into a game with 27 seconds to go, come from behind, win a thrilling game, and because we win a thrilling game, let's move us down because one team is not playing and the other team had the exact same game, exactly the same. Tell me how that works. Maybe I'm just stupid, just tell me how that works. You're on the AP, tell me how that works (laughter).

I think Tennessee fans would disagree that they "had the exact same game." First, Tennessee went ahead with 3:28 to play, Notre Dame took the lead with 27 seconds left. Second, Tennessee didn’t have to rely on passive play-calling from Karl Dorrell to even get the ball back for a chance to win. And it has to be mentioned: "[t]hey're sitting at home eating cheeseburgers?!" Anybody who’s taken Psych 101 now knows what Charlie does in his free time, as if there was any doubt.

So, ya, Lloyd yells at officials and can be short with reporters, but at least he doesn’t pull this crap. His vanilla "I don’t worry/care about the polls" comments almost sound poetic compared to Weis' whinging. The only time Lloyd has ever even remotely, possibly complained about the polls was after the final 1997 polls when he joked that maybe coaches weren’t as smart as writers (since Michigan won the AP title, Nebraska the Coaches’). It’s going to be funny when Notre Dame plays Tennessee or Florida in a BCS Bowl after losing to USC. Get ready for your whoopin’, Charlie!

Post-Iowa thoughts

2006-10-23T09:19:00.000-04:00

Now it’s time to start looking forward to Ohio State:

- That was the type of game I was expecting: Mistakes and penalties on Offense (primarily in the 1st Half), “boring,” close pretty much the whole way through, but a Michigan victory. I’ll take it. I would have taken a 1-point win. The funny thing is, despite our crappy play, we covered the 13.5-point spread.

- Carson Butler looks faster than any TE we’ve ever had, and he probably is. Getting him experience this year is going to pay huge dividends down the road.

- Is our OL better without Rueben Riley in there? While Alex Mitchell isn’t a true Tackle, neither is Riley (that was the whole fuss this off-season). And with True Freshman Justin Boren already showing that he can run-block well, maybe we should keep Riley off the field? After all, our inability (or refusal) to run to the right side of the line has to be due (at least in part) to Riley’s limited mobility. I love Rueben’s toughness, but if he isn’t 100%, he’s probably doing more harm than good.

- Another solid performance by the Defense. It’s getting to the point where I’m spoiled: If somebody runs for 10 or 12 yards, I’m really upset. I thought it was an average defensive performance, and we held them to 6 points. That’s pretty nuts.

- Everybody talked about the “6-game stretch” from the game at Notre Dame to the game against Iowa. Taking a look back, one could make a good argument that our best game during that stretch was at Notre Dame. If you would have told me that before the season started, I would have laughed in your face.

- I’m getting a bit frustrated with the lack of holding calls in the Big Ten. Yes, it is a conference-wide “phenomenon,” but when you have the best DL in the conference (or the country?), it hurts you the most. Woodley and Jamison were both tackled multiple times with no flags thrown. And seeing that we aren’t getting those calls at home, I don’t expect to get them at OSU, which is going to drive me crazy.

- If you saw the OSU-Indiana highlights, you likely saw Ted Ginn throw a TD pass to TE Rory Nicol off of a reverse. As soon as I saw that, I convinced myself that OSU would try a similar play against us, only it would be a “throw-back” to Troy Smith who would be running a wheel route out in the flat. If you see that highlight again, notice that Smith was wide open after pitching the reverse to Ginn. I’m sure Ron English is 10 steps ahead of me.

Iowa game linkfest

2006-10-20T08:52:00.000-04:00

Side note for those who’ve missed it: More Big House renovation designs/sketches. It's starting to come to life – looks good so far. Here are five different articles/blurbs about the design, timeline, etc. I’ll highlight the MGoBlue.com article, because despite the propaganda, it is the most thorough. Others:

Michigan Daily
Ann Arbor News
Detroit Free Press
Detroit News

On to Saturday’s game…

General info:

Unranked AP / #23 Coaches / #23 BCS Iowa (5-2, 2-2 Big Ten) @ #2 AP / #3 Coaches / #3 BCS Michigan (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten)
Game Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
Game Location: Michigan Stadium
Weather Forecast
Television Coverage: Split-National on ABC. Coverage Map here. HD broadcast in 720p on ABC HD.
Local Ann Arbor Area Radio Coverage: WOMC-FM (104.3), CKLW-AM (800), WTKA-AM (1050)
Satellite Radio Coverage: Sirius Satellite Radio – Channel 155 (Michigan announcers)
Other Radio Affiliates: Click here
Line: The line opened at Michigan by 13.5 and moved to Michigan by 12.5 in the first day. Back up to Michigan by 13 on Tuesday, but has settled at Michigan by 12.5, depending on the book.

Related stuff:

MGoBlue.com: "Game Notes," including Depth Chart (PDF)

MGoBlue.com: Press conference quotes: Lloyd Carr; Players

MGoBlue.com: Harris Named Butkus Award Semifinalist

MGoBlue.com: Woodley Named Semifinalist for Rotary Lombardi Award

MGoBlue.com: Woodley Receives Big Ten Player of the Week Award

The Detroit News: Rankings matter little

The Detroit News: Michigan: 2-minute drill

The Detroit News: Burgess, Crable sport modified mohawks

The Detroit Free Press: Tough breaks for U-M DBs

The Detroit Free Press: Undefeated Michigan is running on all cylinders

The Detroit Free Press: Catching on (Arrington article)

The Michigan Daily: Arring it out (more (better) stuff on Arrington)

The Michigan Daily: ’Real deal’ Wolverines take on Iowa

The Michigan Daily: Iowa limps into Ann Arbor

The Michigan Daily: Behind enemy lines: Iowa QB Drew Tate (interview)

The Ann Arbor News: Keeping focus

The Ann Arbor News: Mitchell loses weight, gains a role

The Ann Arbor News: Dream coming true (Michigan ‘D’ is good)

The Ann Arbor News: U-M benefits from strong leadership

Ann Arbor News: Temptation is there for U-M to look ahead

Ann Arbor News: U-M secondary has luxury of depth

Grand Rapids Press: Something special in the air for U-M

The Sports Network’s Prediction

Rivals.com Iowa Message Board

Scout.com Iowa Message Board

Knock on wood, or buy me a Coke...

2006-10-19T14:54:00.000-04:00

or something like that, because CBS Sportsline is putting all sorts of whammies, jinxes, and general hexes on Michigan by putting a "Countdown to Michigan at Ohio State" clock on their College Football page. Just when I was starting to feel some sense of calm, these idiots have to go and do this. Great.